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Would-Be Worlds: How Simulation is Changing the Frontiers of Science [Hardcover]

John Casti (Author)
3.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)


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Book Description

September 28, 1996 0471123080 978-0471123088 1
Critical acclaim for John Casti's previous book

"Five Golden Rules is caviar for the inquiring reader. Anyone who enjoyed solving math problems in high school will be able to follow the author's explanations, even if high school was a long time ago. There is joy here in watching the unfolding of these intricate and beautiful techniques. Casti's gift is to be able to let the nonmathematical reader share in his understanding of the beauty of a good theory."—Christian Science Monitor

"[Five Golden Rules] ranges into exotic fields such as game theory (which played a role in the Cuban Missile Crisis) and topology (which explains how to turn a doughnut into a coffee cup, or vice versa). If you'd like to have fun while giving your brain a first-class workout, then check this book out."—San Francisco Examiner

"Unlike many popularizations, [this book] is more than a tour d'horizon: it has the power to change the way you think. Merely knowing about the existence of some of these golden rules may spark new, interesting—maybe even revolutionary—ideas in your mind. And what more could you ask from a book?"—New Scientist

"This book has meat! It is solid fare, food for thought . . . makes math less forbidding, and much more interesting."—Ben Bova, The Hartford Courant

"This book turns math into beauty."—Colorado Daily

"John Casti is one of the great science writers of the 1990s."—San Francisco Examiner

In the ever-changing world of science, new instruments often lead to momentous discoveries that dramatically transform our understanding. Today, with the aid of a bold new instrument, scientists are embarking on a scientific revolution as profound as that inspired by Galileo's telescope. Out of the bits and bytes of computer memory, researchers are fashioning silicon surrogates of the real world—elaborate "artificial worlds"—that allow them to perform experiments that are too impractical, too costly, or, in some cases, too dangerous to do "in the flesh."

From simulated tests of new drugs to models of the birth of planetary systems and galaxies to computerized petri dishes growing digital life forms, these laboratories of the future are the essential tools of a controversial new scientific method. This new method is founded not on direct observation and experiment but on the mapping of the universe from real space into cyberspace. There is a whole new science happening here—the science of simulation.

The most exciting territory being mapped by artificial worlds is the exotic new frontier of "complex, adaptive systems." These systems involve living "agents" that continuously change their behavior in ways that make prediction and measurement by the old rules of science impossible—from environmental ecosystems to the system of a marketplace economy. Their exploration represents the horizon for discovery in the twenty-first century, and simulated worlds are charting the course.

In Would-Be Worlds, acclaimed author John Casti takes readers on a fascinating excursion through a number of remarkable silicon microworlds and shows us how they are being used to formulate important new theories and to solve a host of practical problems. We visit Tierra, a "computerized terrarium" in which artificial life forms known as biomorphs grow and mutate, revealing new insights into natural selection and evolution. We play a game of Balance of Power, a simulation of the complex forces shaping geopolitics. And we take a drive through TRANSIMS, a model of the city of Albuquerque, New Mexico, to discover the root causes of events like traffic jams and accidents.

Along the way, Casti probes the answers to a host of profound questions these "would-be worlds" raise about the new science of simulation. If we can create worlds inside our computers at will, how real can we say they are? Will they unlock the most intractable secrets of our universe? Or will they reveal instead only the laws of an alternate reality? How "real" do these models need to be? And how real can they be? The answers to these questions are likely to change the face of scientific research forever.



Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review

Is there a science of economics? Can we actually conduct experiments to test its hypotheses? For once, the ethical and practical answers match: even were we willing to experiment on our fellows, our power to effect precise changes or to isolate control groups is limited, to say the least. But what if we could experiment on a smaller, simpler version of the world market? John L. Casti points the way toward just such a science once-removed of complex phenomena in Would-Be Worlds, an accessible overview of the use of computers in modeling and simulation.

From the Cambrian explosion to the Albuquerque transportation system to the NFL, we are shown how a few simple rules can give rise to dazzling complexity, yielding insights undreamed of before the silicon revolution. Casti touches on mathematics, evolutionary biology, biochemistry, economics, logic, literature, and meteorology, always with clarity and sympathy for the lay reader. At a time when children spend hours with their computers building and maintaining cities, ecosystems, and planets, Would-Be Worlds shows us how this play foreshadows the investigations these young scientists will pursue in the future. --Rob Lightner

From Kirkus Reviews

Computer simulation has arrived big time, in everything from movie effects to election forecasts; here's an expert's overview. Beginning with an attempt to predict the outcome of a Super Bowl, Casti (Searching for Certainty, 1991) chose a popular but fairly sophisticated computer game program to play a series of simulated games between the 1995 opponents, the 49ers and Chargers. He uses his results (which suggest either that the actual game was a fluke or that the program is flawed) to make several basic points about computer simulations and models. They can be predictive or explanatory; perfect fidelity to the real world is not the sole virtue; and they are often most useful in analysis of complex phenomena that in the real world are either dangerous to meddle with (such as the flight patterns over a busy airport) or very rare (the collision of a meteor with Earth). He then gets down to specifics, describing programs to analyze language, to generate artificial ``life,'' or to forecast the weather. A long and fascinating chapter is devoted to limitations and paradoxes that limit our ability to turn every problem into an easily computable simulation. We get close-up looks at a system modeling the traffic patterns at rush hour in Albuquerque; at neural nets, which attempt to simulate the structure of the human brain; and at ``Sugarscape,'' which extracts basic economic principles from a pure supply-and-demand environment. Casti's subject sometimes leads him into esoteric territory, but he tries to keep it down-to-earth with examples from real life. At the same time, he is not afraid to plunge into such deep waters as G”del's Incompleteness Theorem. There is the occasional mathematical formula, but readers without advanced math should be able to follow the argument--especially because of the excellent use of illustrations and diagrams. A very solid and useful discussion of the theory and practice of computer modeling in the physical and social sciences. -- Copyright ©1996, Kirkus Associates, LP. All rights reserved.

Product Details

  • Hardcover: 264 pages
  • Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (September 28, 1996)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0471123080
  • ISBN-13: 978-0471123088
  • Product Dimensions: 9.7 x 6.5 x 0.8 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 3.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #2,793,575 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Average Customer Review
3.3 out of 5 stars (3 customer reviews)
 
 
 
 
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Most Helpful Customer Reviews

13 of 14 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars Useful non-technical treatment of modelling & simulation, February 3, 1997
By A Customer
This review is from: Would-Be Worlds: How Simulation is Changing the Frontiers of Science (Hardcover)
Casti is a lucid and entertaining writer and has sufficient depth in his own subject and breadth in other disciplines as to be well placed to write a book on modelling and simulation. This is an excellent introduction to some of the mathematical, logical, and philosophical problems of and raised by the increasing use of simulation to investigate 'real-world' problems. It assumes no background beyond a general interest in science.
If this book has weaknesses they tend to be of the variety that afflicts much modern writing in popular science. Editors rather than authors, perhaps? A sizeable portion of the plates and diagrams add nothing to the book ("gee, John, this is a popular science book - we gotta have some pictures") plus a preference for rushing to mine the next source of the 'gee-whiz' factor rather than grappling with consequences.
The strapline on the cover is 'how simulation is changing the frontiers of science' and I'm not at all sure that this question is answered. The last chapter makes an unconvincing attempt to be a summary, but is in fact the least interesting of the five trailing off rather weakly into a 'what we really need is a theory of complex systems' position.
But, the acid test - did I learn anything from this book? Most definitely, yes. - Ashley Oliver
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6 of 6 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars A book with a good question!, October 8, 2001
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This is one of those books that address important questions. But unfortunately it is not always possible to answer these important questions. This book is about "would-be-worlds", on computer simulations of real life phenomena. The question is how can one explain real world facts with such simulations that look extremely distant from the real world. Good question, but it is very hard to answer. Casti does not answer this question, he has attempts, for example the section "Models for All Occasions" is a good step, but he can not deliver the good. Why? Maybe because he spends a lot of space introducing and discussing various examples of simulations. Maybe because he did not want to play the "philosopher of science" in this book. I do not know, but most probably he thinks that these computational models, and simulations are useful anyway. So he does not tell us how we can trust these models, but he tries to amaze us with these models. But is that bad? No!

Although practical and philosophical questions about computer simulations are very important there are still few people thinking about these issues. Casti's book directs attention to these issues and questions. Moreover, this is a book for the layman! Thus, it is good to introduce different sorts of would-be-worlds. Casti is excellent in introducing things!

Briefly, although Casti does not tell how it is possible to make inferences about the real world from such artificial worlds, this is a good book to start thinking about the philosophy and methodology of explaining with computer simulations.

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5 of 7 people found the following review helpful:
2.0 out of 5 stars Remarkably mediocre book, December 22, 2000
This review is from: Would-Be Worlds: How Simulation is Changing the Frontiers of Science (Hardcover)
As someone who enjoys popular science books, dabbles in complexity theory, and works in modeling and simulation, I was really looking forward to this book. Unfortunately, it is not well structured and the author seems to be unable to decide whether he's writing about complexity or M&S. Yes, they are intertwined, but there are several books that treat the subject of complexity very well. What I was looking forward to here was a behind the scenes look at the experimental aparatus of complexity theory: Modeling and Simulation. Whether its due to lack of understanding of the art of M&S or an excessive love affair with complexity, the book comes off half-heartedly discussing both. If you want to learn about complexity, read something by John Holland. If you want to learn about M&S, read anything but this.
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First Sentence:
Contrary to popular belief, the world's greatest sporting event in terms of prolonged, worldwide interest is not the Olympic Games. Read the first page
Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs): (learn more)
surrogate worlds, digital organisms, ancestral organism, planetary formation
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Balance of Power, New York, Super Bowl, San Francisco, Arcy Thompson, Louisiana Boulevard, Santa Fe Institute, Tom Ray, Liar Paradox, San Diego, Brian Arthur, Gertrude Stein, Adam Smith, Incompleteness Theorem, Roman Empire, Alan Turing, David Lane, N-Body Problem, National Football League, Rio Grande, United States, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Four-Color Conjecture, Wall Street
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