The Writing on the Wall: Why We Must Embrace China as a Partner or Face It as an Enemy [Hardcover]

Will Hutton (Author)

Book Description

Publication Date: November 14, 2006

The prevailing view of China is that the country is an economic juggernaut sure to become the dominant power of the twenty-first century. In this provocative and stimulating book critically acclaimed author Will Hutton warns instead that China is running up against a set of daunting challenges from within its own political and economic system that could well derail its rise, leading to a massive shock to the global economy. The United States, he argues, must recognize that it has a vital stake in working to assure this doesn't happen, for if China's political liberalization and economic growth collapse, the United States will suffer crippling consequences.

In today's highly globalized world economy, so much of the economic health of the United States -- our low inflation, high profits, and cheap credit -- rests upon China's economic growth and its massive investment in the United States. A great deal has been said about the economic and military threat China poses. But rather than provoking China with the military hawkishness of recent years and resisting Chinese economic supremacy with the saber rattling of protectionist antitrade policies -- twenty such bills have been introduced in Congress in just the last year -- the United States must build a strong relationship that will foster China's transition from an antiquated Communist state beset with profound problems to a fully modern, enlightened, and open society. Doing so will require understanding and engagement, not enmity and suspicion.

China's current economic model, Hutton explains, is unsustainable, premised as it is on the myriad contradictions and dysfunctions of an authoritarian state attempting to control an economy in its transition to capitalism. If the twenty-first century is to be the China century, the Chinese will have to embrace the features of modern Western nations that have spurred the political stability and economic power of the United States and Europe: the rule of law, an independent judiciary, freedom of the press, and authentic representative government that is accountable to the people. Whether or not China does so rests in large part on how well the United States manages the relationship and persuades the Chinese of the virtues of an open, enlightened democratic system. The danger is that fearmongering will intensify animosities, leading both countries down a path of peril.

Turning conventional wisdom on its head, this brilliantly argued book is vital reading at a crucial juncture in world affairs.

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

In his latest take on global geopolitics, the economics editor of The Guardian performs an ambitious dissection of U.S. and Chinese economic policy, sounding the alarm that "the implications could not be more profound" should Western superpowers fail to shape China into a workable model of democracy and enlightenment. Delving into the 3,000 year history of the Chinese, Hutton introduces readers to Confucius and Mao, the rise of Chinese Communism and the political experiments that have left the Chinese economy "in an unstable halfway house-an economy that is neither socialist nor properly capitalist run by a party that is neither revolutionary nor subject to the normal constitutional checks and balances of even China's own Confucian past." The big questions-of how much longer the Communist party can deliver economically, of where the world will head if U.S. protectionism triumphs in painting the East as an enemy-are brilliantly analyzed, with an eye toward maximizing gain for all players: despite the fact that the U.S.'s "strategic trade policy-openness-is being exploited by a potential superpower rival," Hutton looks to the history of the U.S. to explain why, "if it can stay open, the U.S. will be rewarded by the ultimate achievement of transforming communist China and growing richer at the same time." This book pushes back from the center against those who see globalization as "a juggernaut threatening to carry us all away either to a free market nirvana-or hades" with sound historical overview and a rational call for economic pragmatism.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

From Booklist

The authoritarian government of China, Communist in name, quasi capitalist in economics, and strenuously nationalistic in foreign policy, inspires many books advising how Western powers should deal with its growing power. This example from a prominent British economics journalist follows James Kynge's China Shakes the World (2006) and discusses the historical and contemporary economic data beneath the issues Kynge raises. Due to corruption, overinvestment of capital, underconsumption by the populace, and a reluctance to let its currency float, the Communist government, to summarize Hutton's thesis, is brittle and ever wary of popular opposition. Lest internal economic tensions prompt the regime to do something risky, such as invade Taiwan, Hutton advocates a host of policies both for the regime itself and the U.S. Critiquing the latter's international economic condition from a left-of-center perspective, Hutton urges the U.S. to shy away from Bush administration policies, stand for Enlightenment-style liberalism, and mollify rather than confront China. Confidently counseled, Hutton's informed views will engage those current on Chinese affairs. Gilbert Taylor
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 432 pages
• Publisher: Free Press (November 14, 2006)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0743275284
• ISBN-13: 978-0743275286
• Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.3 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
• Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #1,184,884 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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40 of 40 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Extremely challenging book on China.... and the US, February 12, 2007

By 

Paul Allaer (Cincinnati) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Writing on the Wall: Why We Must Embrace China as a Partner or Face It as an Enemy (Hardcover)

I have been reading up a lot on China these days, because of my work primarily, including such books as "Mr. China", "China Shakes the World" and of course "The World is Flat", dealing with China indirectly. These books dealt primarily, if not exclusively, with China's economic transformation, and they are all most worthy of recommendation. And that angle is what I was also expecting from this book. Boy, was I ever wrong!

In "The Writing on the Wall: Why We Must Embrace China as a Partner or Face It as an Enemy" (421 pages), British author Will Hutton does of course also bring the staggering picture of China's recent economic rise. But that is just the beginning of the book. The real meat of this book comes from Hutton's careful evaluation of China's problems and challenges as the ruling Communist (and only) Party tries to walk the fine line between economic growth and yet being a state largely without the institutions of "Enlightenment" that allowed western states to achieve the status they have achieved in the 19th and 20th centuries. Problems abound everywhere, from corruption to disregard for the environment, employees' rights, health insurance, the respect/enforcement of law, and on and on. The author brings a lot of historical and well thought out perspectives on these issues along the way, for example the catch-22 the Chinese government finds itseld currently in on whether or not to revalue the renminbi currency, as most of the world is urging (either way, there are no good results for the Chinese, for reasons the author makes clear... so what is the Chinese government to do?). The latter third part of the book brings an equally challenging look at the US side of things, bringing to the front the currently corroding values of free trade, engagement with the rest of the world, and the values of an accountable government (culminating in an assessment of the Iraq war).

At no point does one get the feeling that the author is saying that China or the US is "wrong" or "right", but the author concludes with an impassionate plea that the solution is not confrontation, but cooperation. This will be easier said than done. The challenges are many. Free trade and bilateral engagement are the answer, so much is clear, but can that be sold to the American public? Not to mention the many, many challenges the Chinese government is facing at home. In all, this is a terrific read from start to finish. Highly recommended!

25 of 27 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars a timely contribution when the world has never been more interdependent, December 12, 2006

By 

AT - See all my reviews

This review is from: The Writing on the Wall: Why We Must Embrace China as a Partner or Face It as an Enemy (Hardcover)

A stimulating and absorbing read. At a time when the world is far from flat, the Writing on the Wall makes a powerful case for why the West needs to keep its markets open and understand the profound difficulties confronting China. A high savings rate, swelling forex, excessive dependence on exports and FDI, anemic domestic consumption, misallocation of capital, rising inequalities, corruption and a stifled private sector (around three fifth of its exports and nearly all its high tech exports are made by non-Chinese, foreign firms) all underscore the extent to which China reaching the limits of the sustainability of its current economic model. Partially disguised by a benign global environment, these imbalances are becoming more difficult to contain as China becomes bigger. To this extent, Hutton shows how these increasingly costly problems flow from deeper institutional deformations - a point understood by the CCP and its emphasis on harmonious development. Whether this can place, as the CCP believes, without the introduction of more external forms of accountability is less clear. This goes to the heart of the matter - and Hutton approaches it with flair and finesse.

In making the `economic' case for enlightenment values, Hutton steers a clear way between the dogmatic, frothy (if rather amusing) simplicities of both left and right. Hutton is clear to show how `Enlightenment values' differ from the crusading neocon agenda of markets and democracy. Pluralism is simply a response to human uncertainty and fallibility; its economic value derives from the multiple experimentation it permits. That is, it is the very antithesis of clunky top-down schemes. Similarly, following the work of Sen, Hutton demonstrates the way in which enlightenment values have their functional equivalents in Asia and elsewhere. In many respects, they have proven more successful than their Western counterparts. Japan's 'democratisation' of innovation a la Total Quality Management and Just in Time production systems, for instance, has forced a reassessment in the West of what it means to be a high-performance organization. By contrast, a country like class-obsessed Britain is depicted as a relative laggard in the Enlightenment stakes for it never invested in individual capabilities, notably education in the way that some other nations did.

While talk of culture is seductively coherent, it is ultimately vacuous and, in the wrong hands, dangerously reifying. All cultures are caught between the tension and interplay of individualistic and communitarian tendencies (see Geremie Barme's 'In the Red: On Contemporary Chinese Culture') while the process of modernisation imposes its own discipline, however mediated it may be (see Eric Jones 'Cultures Merging: A Historical and Economic Critique of Culture'). To set up a binary opposition between one and another -say an individualistic 'West' and a communitarian 'East'- seems naive and churlish.

The importance of what makes for a successful and sustainable capitalism becomes more urgent as free trade comes under fire and individuals (wrongly) blame globalization and foreigners for their woes. Hutton shows how the US benefits from the global trading system; indeed, as economies develop and the preferences of consumers become more sophisticated, cheap labour will be less central to competitive advantage (see Berger's excellent "How We Compete"). To this extent, Hutton argues with devastating effect how the US's retreat from Enlightenment values has undermined the necessary checks and balances that have historically provided the US economy with necessary momentum and legitimacy. The result has been an understandable if unjustified rise in protectionist sentiment. The US sits at the centre of a worldwide system of fragile economic and political interdependencies. If this sentiment was unleashed, the implications would be profound.

A call to play-it-long and patient, Hutton's book is a hugely welcome contribution.

20 of 21 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Brilliant analysis of how the United States should proceed in our relations with China., April 27, 2007

By 

Paul Tognetti "The real world is so much more... (Cranston, RI USA) - See all my reviews
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This review is from: The Writing on the Wall: Why We Must Embrace China as a Partner or Face It as an Enemy (Hardcover)

I think it is fair to say that the conventional wisdom is that the United States and China are on a collision course. John J. Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago summarizes this point of view this way; "China and the United States are destined to clash militarily and the United States has an interest to do all it can to forestall China's becoming economically rich enough to challenge it." Author Will Hutton vehemently disagrees with this point of view. In "The Writing On The Wall" Hutton presents a methodical, logical and compelling case for the United States to pursue policies that will only encourage the continued and inevitable modernization of China. Hutton's thoughtful and convincing analysis of the situation certainly turns conventional wisdom on its head.

According to Hutton, the continued mercurial growth of the Chinese economy is simply unsustainable given the current policies being pursued by the Communists who are still in charge in China. There is simply no way that the policies and political environment favored by those who are currently in power in Beijing can mesh with the continued and sustained economic growth that China is seeking. Time and again Hutton points to the nearly total lack of what he terms "soft" infrastructure as the primary reason why current Chinese policy is doomed to failure. This rather monolithic economic system lacks such fundamental cornerstones as a legitmate banking system, a free press and the ability of workers to organize. Add to that the fact that most major industries are still SOE (state owned enterprises) and it is plain to see why the major flaws in the Chinese economy are almost certain to rear their ugly heads in the near future with potentially devasting consequences for us all. And there are a whole host of other systemic problems with the Chinese economy that time does not permit me to list here. Hutton argues vigarously that the United States and the EU should be encouraging the Chinese to move away from those policies that will ultimately hold them back.

I found "The Writing On The Wall" to be a particularly well written and equally well documented book. Will Hutton avoids a lot of technical jargon and presents his case in clear, easy to understand language. Based on my limited knowledge of China prior to reading this book I would have probably come down on the side of Professor Mearsheimer. I thought that conflict with China was a probably a foregone conclusion. But Will Hutton has convinced me of the wisdom of encouraging China to modernize and perhaps even in making some changes in the way we do business ourselves. "The Writing On The Wall" is an extremely thought provoking book and one that I can very highly recommend!