Probability Demystified (Paperback)

~ Allan Bluman (Author) "Probability can be defined as the mathematics of chance..." (more)
Key Phrases: Other Probability Distributions, Probability Sidelight, Monte Carlo (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Product Description

Many people do not understand the basic concepts of probability, as evidenced by the proliferation of those participating in lotteries, horse racing, and gambling at casinos. But probability and statistics are becoming increasingly important in today’s society. As the basic ideas are being taught in elementary schools through college, it’s important that everyone has a basic understanding of probability theory. Probability theory explains the happenings that occur due to chance. Although it is not possible to predict for certain the individual outcome of a chance process, it is possible to determine outcomes in the "long run," and to predict the probability that something will eventually occur. This book will present the basics of probability in a non-rigorous manner. Only an understanding of arithmetic and some basic algebra are necessary to learn these ideas. No high-powered mathematical notation or formal proofs will be used, rather the concepts will be developed from examples using coins, dice, cards, and other common probability devices.

From the Back Cover

DON'T ROLL THE DICE LEARNING PROBABILITY!

Now anyone who ever flipped a coin, played cards, or placed a bet can grasp the principles that govern probability -- without formal training, unlimited time, or an Einstein IQ. In Probability Demystified, experienced math instructor Allan Bluman provides an illuminating and entertaining way to master chance, odds, and predictability.

With Probability Demystified, you learn the subject one simple step at a time -- at your own speed. This unique, self-teaching guide offers problems at the end of each chapter and section to pinpoint weaknesses, and a 60-question "final exam" to reinforce the entire book.

If you have basic math and a little algebra, you can master probability. This fast and entertaining self-teaching course makes it fun and easy to:

• Learn probability theory with examples using familiar items such as coins, cards, and dice
• Discover how actuaries predict the likelihood of events
• Play games of chance with deeper understanding
• Construct a solid foundation for statistics
• Be better prepared for standardized tests
• Take a "final exam" and grade it yourself!

Simple enough for beginners and students but always challenging, Probability Demystified is the most interesting self-teaching tool or brush-up you can find!

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Product Details

• Paperback: 258 pages
• Publisher: McGraw-Hill Professional; 1 edition (January 27, 2005)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0071445498
• ISBN-13: 978-0071445498
• Product Dimensions: 2.5 x 1.5 x 0.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #160,067 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Does the job - teaches the basics quickly, September 24, 2007

By	Yet another old guy (Phoenix, Arizona) - See all my reviews

I'm a college graduate who never took statistics or probability in college (not a required course). I recently encountered the need to understand probabilities and the peculiar notations. I found Probability Demystified to exactly fit my needs. It explains each concept clearly and illuminated by seemingly dozens of examples presented as problems and solutions. The examples are very clear and more than enough to test your understanding. The descriptions are so clear the author did not need to rely on "heavy" math to explain the concepts. For the foundation topics, the examples typically involve coin tosses, die rolls or drawing a card from a deck of playing cards, which make the questions very easy to understand. For more complex concepts the questions are still clear.
After developing the basics on calculating probability, it covers several fundamental probability distributions (Binomial, Multinomial, Normal, Poisson, Geometric, and Hypergeometric). Then it explains the basics about how to use the Monte Carlo simulation method, Game Theory, and Actuarial Science (insurance). The book also usually provides brief historical background descriptions, which I found interesting. I found once I understood a topic, I could summarize the topic on a 3"x3" Post-It note (I use them like tabs in the pages of the book) to quickly remember the concept.

Incidentally, I also purchased Cartoon Guide to Statistics, which I appreciated for its brevity, but found myself a bit lost in the notation when it reached probability distributions. Probability Demystified explains it better and was just what I needed.

One of the other reviewers harshly criticized the book for having errors in some examples. Frankly, I don't care. I didn't need to do more than a couple of problems per topic. There are so many examples (and solutions) for each topic, the student can generally tell when there is an error. The important thing is, does the book teach? It does, and efficiently too. I read most of it (up through Normal Distributions) in less than a day.

11 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars very good start to teach yourself the bases of the probability theory.., October 26, 2005

By	Averroes (USA) - See all my reviews

I find this book one of the simplest books that help to explain the elementary of the probablity theory. The auther used very easy examples along with solved problems to explain the basics of probability. Applications of probability theory like Simulation, Game theory, and actuarial science have been addressed in a very simple way. If you are searching for the simplest book to understand probability, this book, for sure, will be your primer choice.

13 of 18 people found the following review helpful:

1.0 out of 5 stars Author should have used a tutor to perform calculations, December 7, 2005

By	JB "Number Cruncher" (Salt Lake, UT) - See all my reviews

Actually, this book is well written and will give the reader a BASIC understanding of probability and I mean basic as long as the reader does not delve to deeply into the provided calculation examples. The problem is the author has several calculation errors in the book, especially in Chapter 4. Very Frustrating and disappointing. Save your Money....