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Future Babble: Why Pundits Are Hedgehogs and Foxes Know Best Paperback – February 28, 2012

by Daniel Gardner (Author)
4.3 out of 5 stars 38 customer reviews
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Product Details

  • Paperback: 320 pages
  • Publisher: Plume; Reprint edition (February 28, 2012)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 9780452297579
  • ISBN-13: 978-0452297579
  • ASIN: 0452297575
  • Product Dimensions: 5.6 x 0.9 x 8.2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 8.5 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.3 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (38 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #886,512 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

3.0 out of 5 starsInteresting Enough!
By Kevin Currie-Knight VINE VOICE on April 2, 2011
Format: Hardcover
Future Babble is about a phenomenon that every one of us is familiar with but routinely ignore: experts get things wrong as much as they get things right when it comes to predictions. All of us know it; we complain about the weather man, scoff at the analysists who predict the winner of the Super Bowl before the season starts, and like to have good laughs over those expert predictions that we know now were wildly off the mark. But we routinely ignore it; we listen to the weather man, are intrigued by listening to anaylists predict Super Bowl winners, etc.

The "why" question can be broken into three questions: WHY do experts (who are, after all, experts) get things wrong, WHY do we listen to them despite knowing that many have gotten it wrong in the past, and WHY do experts persist in making predictions even though they (and we) know that expert predictions often go wrong?

Dan Gardner attempts to explain all of these and the answers take us through such fields as evolutionary psychology, behavioral economics, and (very, very basic) chaos theory. First question: why do experts get things wrong? Simply put, the world is very, very complicated and our brains are evolved to seek patterns. Especially when dealing with the social world - human history, politics, macroeconomics - the more we find out about how the world works, the more we understand that minute factors can have major and very unpredictable effects. Wars can start based on politicians slips of the tongue during speeches, the price of oil can be effected by civil wars breaking out in oil-producing region, which in turn can be affected by any number of things. Etc. Etc. But, experts are experts for a reason: they try to understand the world.Read more ›
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5.0 out of 5 starsEat, Drink, & Be Merry, for Tomorrow We (Might) Die
By William Holmes VINE VOICE on March 20, 2011
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
Gardner's "Future Babble" is a much needed antitode to the endless stream of nonsense that we hear from pundits who claim to be able to predict the future. Broadly speaking, Gardner distinguishes between two types of experts: Hedgehogs, who know a given subject extremely well, are very confident about their predictions and are almost always wrong, often spectacularly so; and Foxes, whose opinions about the future recognize the difficulties and complexity of forecasting and are nuanced accordingly. The Foxes are only a bit more apt to be on target than the Hedgehogs, but they will at least acknowledge their errors, recognize the limitations of their art and adjust their opinions to account for new facts. They are also routinley ignored because they are boring.

Unfortunately, people crave certainty, so they lionize experts who make bold, articulate predictions about what will happen five, ten, fifteen, even fifty years from now, a proposition that is inherently suspect when you consider that chaos theory shows that even small changes in initial assumptions will dramatically change long-term outcomes. Fortunately for the experts and their livelihood, listeners do an incredibly poor job of holding experts accountable for their gross errors. We remember the rare hits and ignore the many, many misses, a point that Gardner illustrates elelgantly and repeatedly.

With wit and broad knowledge of his subjects, Gardner skewers numerous still famous "experts" who have routinely been wrong about things like the price of oil, the scarcity or abundance of commodities, population growth, Y2K, the collapse or persistence of the Soviet Union, and a host of other problems.Read more ›
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5.0 out of 5 starsDon't Miss This One - Outstanding!
By Book Fanatic TOP 1000 REVIEWERVINE VOICE on March 22, 2011
Format: Hardcover
William Holmes in his review did a wonderful job of summarizing what this book is all about and since I agree with that summary I won't repeat it. I bought this book because the topic was appealing to me and I had read Gardner's previous book "The Science of Fear" and loved it.

Future Babble is hilarious and that makes it a wonderfully enjoyable read, but that's just a bonus because thesis itself is powerful and very well supported. It matters because the topic is incredibly important. What more could you ask for?

His case is devastating and frightening at the same time. How people like Paul Erlich and his supporters (to take one example) can continue to insist they were right in the face of the total failure of their predictions is a testament to human hubris. That we can be so blind to our own thinking is bad enough. What makes it worse is that apparently the more you know the worse it gets.

This book belongs in the library of every thinking person. We can sit around and rationalize why this expert or that expert is likely to be correct in their predictions of the future (such as both sides on the climate debate), but we need to face some facts. The historical record in this regard is a so bad it is actually funny. Gardner does a better and more enjoyable job of explaining why than any other author I've encountered.

Big thumbs up for this one!
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5.0 out of 5 starsA timely update to the Madness of Crowds
By S. Blakey on November 7, 2010
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
Dan Gardner eloquently illustrates that Socrates was correct in saying the wise know what they don't know but that most people will ignore the wise if provided a confident sounding alternative.

Gardner provides an up to date summary of research in psychology and many, many well documented examples of both the failings of over confidence and the human propensity to fall for the confident story, especially ones own.

An excellent read and resource for anyone needing reminding of the madness of crowds or a counter to over confident forecasters.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

2.0 out of 5 starsPerhaps I should have gone to the library

OK, but nothing earth shattering or very revealing.

I am never paid or gifted for my reviews here on Amazon. Never Ever!

Published 1 month ago by Roebear
5.0 out of 5 starsGreat read! Once you read this book

Great read! Once you read this book, you'll never look at an "expert" in the same way...insightful and fascinating...

Published 4 months ago by Albert Bolter Author of The C.A.T. Principle: Change, Action, Trust - Words to Live By
5.0 out of 5 starsAn X-Ray of the Magic Ball

Although based on economical, demographical and political predictions in the last century or so, Future Babble is a brilliant book with a great work of research and a sound... Read more

Published 7 months ago by Ama Su Nilia
5.0 out of 5 starsOur society would be vastly better if everyone read and understood it

This book is a really helpful guide to thinking critically about dogma and authoritative ideas. Our society would be vastly better if everyone read and understood it. Read more

Published 8 months ago by Alan Watson
5.0 out of 5 starsThe future lies ahead. Who knew? Not the experts.

Do you make predictions? If Dan Gardner is right, you may want to destroy all evidence of your prognostications. Our species is not all that good at divining the future. Read more

Published 11 months ago by Richard Morchoe
4.0 out of 5 starsSmart insights

We have to make predictions. We need to realize it is better to be a wise Fox than a certain hedgehog.

Published 12 months ago by Mighty whig
5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars

Great follow up to the "Science of Fear"

Published 15 months ago by Francis Lyons
4.0 out of 5 starsGood to buy

This books tells us about the incredible corruption prevalent among pundits' political and world economics predictions; they are not only overwhelmingly wrong, but they defend... Read more

Published on January 5, 2014 by Beau Sabreur
5.0 out of 5 starsGreat product

If you like to read about society and why is it that we like to "predict" things this book is for you.

Published on January 30, 2013 by Bluto
4.0 out of 5 starsGood, important, but not great

Future Babble is a fairly straightforward book. It argues that the world can roughly be predicted in limited circumstances (weather for about three days, demographic trends for... Read more

Published on October 29, 2012 by P. Troutman

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