Canals. Railroads. Automobiles. Computers. The Internet. Each represented revolutionary shifts in the way Americans would live and do business. Each saw a corresponding rush of investors to get in on this great new investment opportunity. Each saw a lot of investors go broke. In The Internet Bubble, Anthony Perkins and Michael Perkins, founding editors of The Red Herring, look at it this way: In the early 20th century, there were more than 500 automobile companies in the U.S. Now how many are there? Same with the new Internet companies, the Perkinses predict. A few will grow into profitable businesses in 10 or 20 years, but even then, their stocks may not be worth much more than their 1999 prices. They argue that buying an Internet stock today is really nothing more than gambling that someone else will come along and buy it from you for more money.
The book includes an overview of the biggest players in the Internet explosion, the market mania for Internet stocks, and profiles of companies such as Amazon.com, Yahoo! and At Home. The authors also interview venture capitalists who help new companies get off the ground and the investment bankers who help them go public. And while they don't pretend that they know when the Internet bubble will burst, or what the damage will be, they are convinced that most .com companies will never make a dime. The book concludes with some thoughts about investing in this climate, and argues that ignoring the Internet may be as dangerous to your portfolio as investing too much. Some guidelines about product cycles and diversification appear, but the biggest rule seems to be: Don't be the one holding the hot potato at the end of the game. --Lou Schuler
From Publishers Weekly
With all the talk about the Dow riding technology stocks to new highs (e.g., James K. Glassman's and Kevin A. Hassett's Dow 36,000, Forecasts, Aug. 30), count the Perkinses, founders of the technology business magazine Red Herring, among the naysayers. Not that they're bearish about the future of the Internet itself. They assume the technology will improve and will change the way ordinary people live, and that there will be an increase in transactions, revenues and profits. But they argue that, even with rapid growth, the current high prices of Internet and related technology stocks are unjustified. The technology and the business models are fine, but they believe that too many companies are being rushed to public securities markets before they are ready, and investors are all too willing to buy anything that is going up in price. The result, they argue, is a classic investment mania, in which higher prices generate more excitement and even higher pricesAuntil the bubble bursts. Not that all Internet stocks are bad investments. The Perkinses figure that one in 20 will take off. But current stock prices only make sense if 20 out of 20 companies soar. The authors' prescription for investors is sobriety. As they lucidly explain the thinking of venture capitalists, investment bankers and analysts who shape the market for technology stocks, they demonstrate a thorough knowledge of the industry that makes their analysis extremely convincing. (Nov.)
Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc.
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