The Well Timed Strategy: Managing the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage (Hardcover)

~ (Author) "Timing is everything..." (more)
Key Phrases: business unit diversification, countercyclical advertising, natural business hedge, Reactive Cyclist, Fair Isaac, Annual Report (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Review

"In The Well-Timed Strategy, Navarro provides a useful primer on business cycle risks and opportunities. Recognizing that business success depends most of all on human capital, he makes the crucial observation that the trough of a recession is the best time to find good people and the most important time to focus on retaining them. This and other insights about investment, production and marketing give todays executives a useful checklist for building and maintaining competitive advantage."

--Michael Milken , Chairman, The Milken Institute

Product Description

"In The Well-Timed Strategy, Navarro provides a useful primer on business cycle risks and opportunities. Recognizing that business success depends most of all on human capital, he makes the crucial observation that the trough of a recession is the best time to find good people and the most important time to focus on retaining them. This and other insights about investment, production, and marketing give today’s executives a useful checklist for building and maintaining competitive advantage."

–Michael Milken, Chairman, The Milken Institute

"Navarro’s conclusions should be an integral part of any management strategy playbook. Timing is indeed everything, and this book shows you how to master it for a successful business."

–Bruce Karatz, Chairman and CEO, KB Home

"The business cycle bedevils all companies, yet few take it into account when plotting strategy. Peter Navarro provides a powerful set of tools, insights, and examples that will help every executive master the all-important art of timing."

–Nicholas G. Carr, Author of Does IT Matter?

"What surprised me the most about this wonderful ‘Big Ideas’ book was not how incisive, useful, and far-ranging its strategic prescriptions are but rather how much fun I actually had reading it."

–Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Co-Founder of Economy.com

"The overriding approach to real estate success used to be ‘location, location, location,’ but it is an absolute fact that ‘timing, timing, timing’ is the ultimate driver behind maximizing return on investment. Peter Navarro illustrates that point with compelling examples of some of the best companies that have proactively navigated the business cycle as well as those that have faltered. The Well-Timed Strategy is an insightful look into the critical concept of knowing not just how to make a move, but more importantly, when."

–Richard S. Ziman, Chairman and CEO, Arden Realty, Inc.

"Don’t miss this guide to surviving–and thriving–during topsy-turvy industry fluctuations."

–Kirkus Reports

"This book is a virtual tour de force of strategies and tactics being used by some of best ‘Master Cyclist’ business executives in the world. Using a wealth of real-world examples, Navarro clearly explains the dos and don’ts of timing important executive decisions to the business cycle–so much so that after reading this book, you’ll view the business cycle more as a strategic partner rather than an economic adversary."

–Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director, Economic Cycle Research Institute

"A path-breaking book full of useful war stories from the front lines. As Lance Armstrong would advise, you don't win a race in the flats–but in the mountains, by managing the ascents and descents better than your competition. Navarro shows us how the same is true for how businesses navigate the ups and downs of the business cycle."

–Stephan G. Richter, Publisher and Editor-in-Chief, theGlobalist.com

"Peter Navarro is that rare academic whose expertise spans both strategic management and technical economics–and writes like a dream. Here, he clearly explains how an understanding of the economics of business cycles gives managers a huge advantage in strategic planning while offering many compelling examples of how companies have succeeded or failed according to their reading of the impact of macroeconomics on their industries."

–Peter Passell, Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute and Editor of the Milken Institute Review

"Peter Navarro has written a remarkable, path-breaking book about strategic management of the business cycle that is destined to be a classic in both corporate boardrooms and business schools. Using a rich array of real world examples, he shows why corporate leaders must always be proactive, often counter-cyclical, and ever nimble."

–Bernard Baumohl, Executive Director of the Economic Outlook Group and Author of The Secrets of Economic Indicators

Most companies ignore one of their best opportunities for honing competitive advantage: proactively managing the business cycle and broader macroeconomic turbulence. In The Well-Timed Strategy, Peter Navarro reveals why the business cycle is an even more powerful P&L driver than you may realize, and demonstrates how it can be profitably managed.

Navarro distills a set of clear and compelling strategies and tactics for managing economic upswings and downswings, oil price spikes, currency crises, trade wars, and other severe macroeconomic shocks. Navarro’s "Master Cyclist" management principles address everything from inventory, production, and supply chains to marketing, pricing, acquisitions, and long-term capital investment. Navarro presents examples and case studies from around the globe, ranging from high tech to heavy industry, from Broadcom, Micron, and Cemex to Paccar and Xilinx, from Chinese entrepreneurs to large multinationals.

Clear, concise, and exceptionally readable, The Well-Timed Strategy makes complex business cycle strategy and tactics easy to understand–and even easier to act upon.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 272 pages
• Publisher: Wharton School Publishing; 1 edition (January 23, 2006)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0131494201
• ISBN-13: 978-0131494206
• Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6 x 1.1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (11 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #322,358 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Timely Strategies for Various Economic Cycles, February 18, 2006

By	Professor Donald Mitchell "Jesus Makes Me a P... (Boston) - See all my reviews (TOP 10 REVIEWER)

Most business people who went to college were exposed to the principles of microeconomic analysis at some point. But most don't apply what they learned to their businesses. Professor Navarro's book is a lively look at some of the opportunities that are presented by adjusting your timing to buy low and sell high for:

- capital expenditures
- acquisitions
- hiring people
- adjusting your supply chain
- marketing (especially advertising and promotion)
- extending credit and collecting receivables
- dealing with volatility in raw materials, interest rates and foreign currency
- eliminating unnecessary risks when the environment is clouded
- dealing with natural calamities and wars

In addition, the book explains a variety of economic analysis tools that have proven to be helpful for business people.

Each chapter is clearly outlined and summarized. The key points are illuminated by vignettes about successes and flops (usually among those who ignored risk or didn't think it through properly).

The writing style is popular, rather than academic. You'll feel like you are reading a series of articles from the local business pages rather than a professor's book.

Much of the research for the book was done by students. That gives the book a lot of breadth. The weakness of that approach is that sometimes the students and Professor Navarro don't quite get it right.

I began to get nervous when Moore's Law was misstated as saying that the number of transistors on a chip double every year . . . rather than every two years. That concern increased when I read examples that I knew well from personal experience. The description of what happened and the reality were at odds. For instance, the famous case of Procter & Gamble losing on a derivative contract purchased from Bankers Trust is characterized as a bet against the bank by the soap maker. The relationship between the two wasn't like that at all. Bankers Trust was offering a way to reduce interest rate risk in a very complicated contract. Bankers Trust was supposed to be looking out for P&G. As the contract started to fall apart, Bankers Trust didn't play that fiduciary role. P&G was right to sue and Bankers Trust was right to take half the loss. Kmart's decent into bankruptcy is described as being totally due to cutting advertising. I'm sure that played a role, but Kmart's problems were bigger than that.

If you don't take the details of the examples too seriously, this is a valuable book. It's mostly aimed at those who are new to business such as business students and young entrepreneurs. But some seasoned managers in companies that don't use microeconomic analysis will find useful perspectives as well.

I don't know of a better book on how to adapt spending to various cycles. If that subject interests you, read this book.

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A well-timed review of this book may help you weather the economic storm, March 16, 2009

By	Rebecca Clement "Publisher, Soundview Executi... (Philadelphia, PA) - See all my reviews

Predicting the weather is part science and part art, but it requires an in depth understanding of weather conditions, phenomena and pattern recognition. Meteorologists spend several years studying these cycles, and they rely on advanced radar systems and computer modeling software to help identify storm fronts so people can evacuate or beautiful high pressure systems that people can enjoy. Peter Navarro's book titled - The Well-Timed Strategy - takes a similar tact at predicting business patterns, economic cycles and enterprise turbulence. Soundview recommends this read because it not only identifies tools that can help you sidestep micro-and-macro-market disasters, it also helps you align all aspects of your business to surf the cycle rather than be a casualty in its wake. This book is jammed with helpful insights regarding customizing your business to adapt to cycle change; operations and inventory management; negotiation maximization as well as best hiring strategies - to name a few. Given the current state of the economy and market uncertainties, this book is definitely worth a look to help you weather the storm.

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Making informed decisions on when to move (and when not to)..., December 6, 2006

By	Thomas Duff "Duffbert" (Portland, OR United States) - See all my reviews (TOP 50 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

There are plenty of business books that tell you *what* to do and *how* to do it, but few which talk about *when*. That's the key difference in Peter Navarro's The Well Timed Strategy: Managing the Business Cycle for Competitive Advantage. By understanding the timing of business cycles, a business person can make moves that position them well for the coming up- or down-tick in the economy.

Contents: Strategies and Tactics of the Master Cyclist Executive; Countercycling Your Capital Expenditures; The Acquisitive Master Cyclist Buys Low and Sells High; The Art of "Cherry Picking" and Other Well-Timed Tactics of the Human Resource Manager; "Macromanaging" Your Production, Inventory, and Supply Chain; Master Cyclist Marketing Through the Business Cycle Seasons; Pricing the Cycle and Managing Credit and Account Receivables; Proactive Profiting from Oil Price Spikes, Interest Rate Hikes, and Exchange Rate Risks; When You Can't Beat the Business Cycle, Hedge Its Risks!; Surviving - and Prospering from - the Economic Shocks of War, Terrorism, Drought, and Disease; The Master Cyclist's Favorite Forecasting Tools; Concluding Thoughts; The Master Cyclist Project's Treasure Trove of Data and All-Star Team; A Business Cycle Primer; Notes; Index

Navarro argues that a close examination of the business cycle (becoming a Master Cyclist) can help you make the right choices for your business in terms of when to do certain things. Based on economic forecasting tools (covered near the end), it's possible to have a better than average view into where the economy is headed, whether it's a recession or an expansion. These indicators, when followed, almost appear to make you look like a bit of a contrarian. If a booming economy has signs of an oncoming recession, the cyclist will take actions like dramatically cutting back on capital expenditures. Most other businesses will still be spending like there's no tomorrow. But when the economy turns, these spending companies are caught with large debt payments with high interest. The cyclist, however, is sitting on a pile of cash at a time when cash flow is king. Continuing to follow the indicators can show when the recession is starting to ease. The spending companies are all cut to the bone at that point, while the cyclist is able to start expansion with little competition and cut-rate pricing. Same with advertising... Spending on advertising at the peak of the recession can often be more effective as everyone else has cut their ad budgets. Fewer voices, more visibility. Then when the economy turns, guess who has mind share heading into the recovery?

I think the points made here are very valid and bear consideration. I will admit to thinking on more than one occasion that "hindsight is 20-20" when reading some of his examples. Granted, many of the bone-headed moves *were* just plain ill-advised and stupid. But at the time, you don't have the luxury of knowing how the story turns out. Also, many of the company demises outlined here are presented in such a way that it makes it look as if there was a single reason for the collapse. In reality, company failures are normally a combination of things, not just a single failure to do (or not do) something. In any case, the point remains that there are economic signals available to executives that are more often right than wrong. Ignoring them because you have a hunch or you've been reading your own press releases doesn't usually turn out to your advantage.

This is an interesting book to add to your business bookshelf, and it can definitely help you chart your course in these strange economic times...