Probable Tomorrows: How Science and Technology Will Transform Our Lives in the Next Twenty Years (Hardcover)

by Marvin Cetron (Author), Owen Davies (Author) "Future computers? Everybody in the business knows what's coming..." (more)
Key Phrases: condensed charges, omental transposition, intelligent materials, United States, New York, Soviet Union (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Review
"Dr. Cetron and Mr. Davies offer an overview of the changes that will transform the United States by the twenty-first century." --The New York Times

"[As] reassuring a look at tomorrow as anything you'll read anywhere." --USA Today

"A picture of a vibrant America surging into the next century, with benefits for all of us." --The Wall Street Journal

"A testament to scientific and analytical forecasting." --Atlanta Journal-Constitution
-- Review

Review

"Dr. Cetron and Mr. Davies offer an overview of the changes that will transform the United States by the twenty-first century." --The New York Times

"[As] reassuring a look at tomorrow as anything you'll read anywhere." --USA Today

"A picture of a vibrant America surging into the next century, with benefits for all of us." --The Wall Street Journal

"A testament to scientific and analytical forecasting." --Atlanta Journal-Constitution

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 352 pages
• Publisher: St. Martin's Press; 1 edition (May 15, 1997)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0312154291
• ISBN-13: 978-0312154295
• Product Dimensions: 9.5 x 6.4 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars See all reviews (5 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #1,478,992 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

13 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Its The Technology, Stupid!, August 31, 2000

By	George Bullard "Strategic Leadership Coach" (Columbia, SC, USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

This book is about science and technology, with an emphasis and interest from my perspective on the technology.

Here are seven things I was drawn to that this book points out. First, new technologies arrive first in war. Second, the convergence of computers, telephones, and everything digital is taking place. Third, artificial intelligence makes possible analysis never before possible. Fourth, the availability of information through the Internet is coming with great ease. Fifth, attendance is increasing at meetings announced on the Internet. Sixth, regular, global communciation is happening on the Internet. Seventh, the discovery to delivery time is collapsing.

These seven statements came out in this book published three years ago, but probably written four years ago. How true are they today? Very true, but already way down the road in several of the areas. How much progress have we already made in some of these areas? A lot!

So, that makes the greatest current day value of this book to be one of understanding the rate and pace of change, and understanding the predictability or unpredictability of the future from a recent history perspective.

As a solid work on the future of science and technology, I commend this book as one to still read to understand the way we can continue to frame and anticipate the future through creative, cutting edge, futures research and in-depth thinking.

13 of 14 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Conservative, but very readable, November 18, 1998

By	Guy DeRome "minister-of-truth" (Greendale, USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

The authors explore the usual catagories of futurism: medicine, transportation, comunication, etc. Most of their predictions are fairly conservative. Where I found the most interest and actually got a "Wow!" was in their predictions of medical advancements in the next twenty years. If their predictions about cancer treatment, gene replacement, and hormone replacement therapy come true, our lives really will be changed in significant ways.

Although, as I said, most of what they predict is not all that astounding, I found the book very readable and enjoyable. It was much better than "2025."

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Insightful!, August 24, 2001

By	Rolf Dobelli "getAbstract.com" (Switzerland) - See all my reviews (TOP 50 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

Authors Marvin Cetron and Owen Davies examine anticipated trends in technology over the next 15 to 20 years. They categorize their studies under digital systems, the Internet, high-tech materials, nanotechnology, transportation, space, energy, medicine and environmental remediation. They examine specific technological proposals and estimate their chances for success within the next two decades. An appendix lists specific predictions and the probability that each will come to pass. The book is necessarily superficial, since it covers such a broad range of topics. Unavoidably, some predictions are already somewhat dated, particularly those about industries that undergo constant, rapid change, such as medicine, computers and the Internet. However, the book provides a thorough survey of the range of technologies that are under study and development. This book is a rich source of ideas and makes interesting connections among disparate technologies. We [...] recommend the book to all corporate planners, trend-researchers and long-term thinkers.