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16 of 17 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars
A helpful (if partisan) guide to the next pope's election, July 9, 2002
There is a vertiable sub-genre of books anticipating, analyzing, and seeking to influence the next conclave. John Allen's highly readable "Conclave" is the latest installment; specifically, it follows in the footsteps of Margaret Hebblethwaite's extensive 2000 revision of her late husband's "The Next Pope." Other books in the genre come in the form of political science (Father Thomas J. Reese's "Inside the Vatican"), quasi-history (Gary Wills' "Hitler's Pope," Francis Burkle-Young's "Passing the Keys"), and fiction (Edward Sheehan's elegant "Cardinal Galsworthy," Father Andrew Greeley's paper-thin "White Smoke," Malachi Martin's "Windswept House"). Both Allen and Hebblethwaite are votaries of the "Catholic left," and share an agenda that seeks to conform (or "reform") 2000 years of Church doctrine, discipline and tradition to the political agenda of the contemporary cultural left. This involves the "devolution" or "decentralization" of authority in the Church, and greater "innovation" and "experimentation" with Catholic doctrine. The Church is an instrument to achieve political ambitions: moral decentralization coupled with political centralization, the Netherlands writ worldwide. Above all else, success in this program lies in electing a "reformist" Pope, someone who "gets it," as the saying goes. Allen's chapter on "Voting Issues" is understandable in this context. But to his credit he gives some space to fairly describing the reasoning of those who defend traditional Church teachings. Allen's chapter on "How the Conclave Works" is also quite good. It describes the unfurling of events in the aftermath of a pope's death: from destroying the "ring of the fisherman" through the novemdiales (nine days of mourning), to the conclave itself, the announcement "habemus papam" (we have a pope"), and the installation mass of the new pope. Allen even suggest the restaurants in Rome that journalists will watch to see which cardinals are dining together, and what that means. The book's categorization of the cardinals into four "political parties" is imperfect but acute, and not entirely unlike that of traditionalist Russell Shaw. It is a valuable resource for those new to this area and seeking to make sense of over 120 electors. Border Patrol cardinals want to take the world up on its boast that "diversity" is the highest value by preserving space for the Universal Church's Deposit of Faith against the hostile forces of cotemporary culture. Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger of Munich, the great theologian, is a leader among these cardinals. Salt of the Earth Integralists (or "restorationists" in another description) want Church teaching to be realized in civil law. Cardinal Angelo Sodano, the Vatican secretary of state, and Cardinal Norberto Rivera Carrera of Mexico City are among this group. Salt of the Earth-Social Justice cardinals focus on using Church credibility to force government action on "social justice" issues. The classic examples of this type are the Brazilian Cardinals Paulo Evaristo Arns and Aloisio Lorscheider; Cardinals Dionigi Tettamanzi of Genoa and Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga of Tegucigalpa (Honduras) are among their number, too. Finally, Reformist cardinals seek a fundamental restructuring of the Church, devolving power from the pope and permitting greater experimentation with church doctrine and discipline. Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini of Milan is the leader of these cardinals. There is necessarily overlap between the Border Patrol and Integralist cardinals, and between the Reformist and Social Justice cardinals. Also, many cardinals do not fit comfortably into one category - e.g., Cardinal Jaimie Sin of Manila -- would be considered both a Social Justice Cardinal and, to a certain degree, a Border Patrol cardinal. One of the shortcomings of this book is its failure to discuss the role of Grand Electors in the conclave, those cardinals who by virtue of their knowledge of languages or personal authority can strongly influence the vote of other cardinals. Even among a flock of shepherds, some are sheep; indeed, there are likely to be far more sheep than shepherds. Yet there is no consideration of the impact of the recent deaths of three cardinals thought to be likely Grand Electors -- Cardinals O'Connor of New York, Bernardin of Chicago, and Hume of Westminster (London). The book also does not take account of recent scandals in Belgium that might effect one of Allen's favorite Reformist Cardinals (Godfried Danneels) or the hostile comments of another favorite (Social Justice Cardinal Rodriguez Maradiaga of Tegucigalpa ) on the American media, which (together with he worldwide media) Allen believes will have the greatest impact on who is elected. (Imagine the editorial boards of the Guardian, Le Monde and the New York Times sitting in conclave.) Probably of greatest interest to readers will be Allen's discussion of his "top 20" prospects for election. Allen and Hebblethwaite make two contrary assumptions - he says Italian option is not the most likely, she says it is; he says the cardinals do not know each other well, she says they know each other better than ever before - and yet they they choose many of the same cardinals as their leading candidates, showing the powerful combination of politics and sentiment whatever the factual assumptions. Martini of Milan is very much the sentimental favorite of Allen, with Tettamanzi of Genoa being an evidently acceptable fall-back option. Allen also places in his top twenty - one of whom, he says, is very likely to be elected the next pope - several cardinals that would find it very difficult to be elected because of their pronounced hostility to Church tradition - e.g., Cardinals Walter Kasper of Rotterdam-Stuttgart and Karl Lehmann of Mainz (Germany) - and excludes other that appear far more "papabile" (or electable) - e.g., Cardinal Antonio Maria Rouco Varela of Madrid. Other names - e.g., Cardinal Walter Napier of Durban (South Africa) - that have nod widely appeared on other lists seem to make an appearance here only to offset cardinals that Allen would find less congenial. (Napier seems to be there to provide an African alternative to Border Patrol Cardinal Francis Arinze of Nigeria, who is widely considered papabile.) A rough count of the entire college on the basis of Allen's descriptions suggests there are approximately 74 Border Patrol and Integralist cardinals and 47 Reformist and Social Justice cardinals. Some will drift where momentum pulls them, thus highlighting the role of Grand Electors. The count also suggests the greater likelihood (or at least pronounced plausibility) of the election of Cardinal Ratzinger (a possibility Hebblethwaite takes seriously and is, surprisingly, open to, but one that Allen totally excludes), Cardinal Christoph Schoenborn of Vienna (who Allen in similar language to Hebblethwaite dismisses, despite his appearance in the "top 20") and Cardinal Jean-Marie Lustiger of Paris (here too, both authors use the same explanations to diminish his electability). Overall, Allen's selection of his top 20 reflects his view that he Church suffers from a crisis of institutions, not a crisis of faith; and this explains the identities of his favorites. But what he never explains is why the Church should have as its supreme leader those among his top 20 (Martini, Kasper, Lehmann, Danneels, among others) who want to give up the good fight and surrender to the worst instincts of contemporary culture. As such, though the book, filtered for partisanship, is a good guide to the next pope's election, it struggles to get past its ideological moorings.
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