Beating the Business Cycle (Hardcover)

~ (Author), Anirvan Banerji (Author) "In the Road Runner cartoon the joke is always the same..." (more)
Key Phrases: economic dashboard, long leading index, durable sequence, Future Inflation Gauge, Weekly Leading Index, United States (more...)

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly

Reading this thin volume on business cycles feels like riding the economic roller coaster itself. Beginning with some engaging chapters on the how and why of business cycles, it plummets into a dull trough about identifying and analyzing economic indicators and levels off with advice about using cyclical information to plan financial moves. Directors of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York-based think tank specializing in cyclical research, the authors stress their affiliation with this "secret weapon" of corporate America throughout the text. But given the track record of most economic prognosticators—in March 2001, for example, 95 percent of American economists thought there would not be a recession, although one had already begun—some crowing about ECRI’s success in predicting recessions and recoveries may be justified. Numbers could easily overwhelm the message here, but Achuthan and Banerji avoid a statistical tar pit. They use numbers judiciously and effectively and write in a style accessible to professionals and amateurs alike. They also exhibit a surprising sensitivity to the real consequences of business cycles. "Wile E. Coyote," they write, "after scraping himself off the canyon floor, again gives chase, heedless of the dangers ahead, oblivious to any lessons he might learn. Because he is only a cartoon character, no matter how many times he gets splattered, he never really gets hurt. But life is not a cartoon. And if you are the one to take a nose dive when the economy makes an unexpected turn, the pain is real. It may not be so easy to peel yourself off the canyon floor." What’s ultimately disappointing about the book, though, is that its promise to provide readers with an economic dashboard to navigate the financial peaks and valleys of business cycles appears to be a pumped-up advertisement for ECRI.
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Review

Advance Praise for BEATING THE BUSINESS CYCLE

“Would it help you decide when to leave a job, buy a house or step up your investing, if you had a good feel for when business was about to turn up (or down)? It sure will help me. This easy-to-read book tells you how the respected ECRI calls turning points, and how you can, too.”
—Jane Bryant Quinn, Newsweek columnist

“While 95% of economists failed to predict the start and end of the last recession, Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji got both right.  Beating the Business Cycle shows just how far the state of the art in cycle forecasting has advanced, and how investors can profit from it.”
—Jon Markman, award-winning CNBC/MSN financial columnist

“Read this jewel of a book and enter your own personal cyclical upswing.”
—James Grant, editor, Grant's Interest Rate Observer

Acclaim for the Economic Cycle Research Institute

“The dismal scientists have a dismal record in predicting recessions… The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a private research group, has been more successful. … ECRI was one of the few firms to forecast both of the past two American recessions.”
—The Economist --This text refers to the Kindle Edition edition.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 208 pages
• Publisher: Broadway Business (May 18, 2004)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0385509537
• ISBN-13: 978-0385509534
• Product Dimensions: 8.3 x 5.8 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (66 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #166,301 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

26 of 27 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars When to make major household decisions, May 20, 2004

By	Maya Kelstein (NJ) - See all my reviews

This book gives guidelines on when to buy a car, home, invest in stocks, etc... Its a good handbook for such major decisions at home. It gives a long-term view, and not the quick and dirty ways to make money. And the best part is that they focus in various sectors so you can have an overall idea of the economy's performance or even real estate if that's all you are interested in!
I recommend it highly! Puts such major personal decisions in perspective.

33 of 36 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars These Guys Have a Great Record!, May 19, 2004

By	Kirk Lindstrom (Los Altos, CA USA) - See all my reviews

Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji have been answering questions about the business cycles and the Economic Cycle Research Institute's (ECRI) leading indicators for many years at their discussion forum I moderate at Suite101.com. [http://www.suite101.com/discussion.cfm/investing/37993/1855-1858#message_2]

I can vouch that they called for the 2001 recession before it occurred on CNBC as well as on our very forum. They also correctly called for a slow turn in the economy which is what we have seen. Their most recent accurate prediction was for muted and delayed job growth. Many skeptics called Lakshman and Anirvan of the ECRI crazy for predicting jobs returning. Their skeptics said ECRI was wrong, that nobody can accurately predict the economy and we would fall back into a recession. Sure enough, we have now had several months of good job growth and the economy has continued to improve, at a moderate pace, just as predicted by the gentlemen from ECRI. Just today in answer to a question about a potential real estate bubble they posted:

"The Leading Home Price Index (LHPI) is part of the "economic dashboard" that we present in "Beating the Business Cycle." The latest readings show the LHPI holding up quite well. The implication is that the home prices are not about to collapse. In fact, they're more likely to continue to edge up."

Any book that gives you insight into their "black magic" is a must read for investors as well as anyone who makes decisions based on the future direction of the economy including those contemplating a home purchase!

Kirk Lindstrom
Editor "Investing - Personal Finance" at Suite101.com

26 of 28 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Finally an economics book that doesnt put you to sleep!!, May 20, 2004

By	Lydia (New York, NY USA) - See all my reviews

HIGHLY RECOMMEND!!!!
I have been watching Mr. Achuthan's and Mr. Banerji's TV appearances for some time now and their economic predictions have always been on target. They even predicted the latest recession before anyone else.

Their book turns out to be the most practical, easy to understand economics book that I have ever read!!! Full of tools that anyone can use to make sense of economic trends. Their cyclical approach can help you protect your investments by forecasting turning points in the economy. It should be a must read on everybody's list.