Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy (Studies in Philosophy) (Hardcover)

by Nick Bostrom (Author) "HOW big is the smallest fish in the pond?..." (more)
Key Phrases: prior credence function, observation selection effects, reference class definition, Big World, Self-Sampling Assumption, Principal Principle (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Product Description
This book breaks new ground by drawing attention to certain kinds of biases that permeate many parts of science and by developing a theory of how to correct for these biases.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 240 pages
• Publisher: Routledge (July 12, 2002)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0415938589
• ISBN-13: 978-0415938587
• Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.2 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.8 out of 5 stars See all reviews (4 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #1,209,097 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

22 of 25 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Deep, thoughtful - and yet so funny book!, September 11, 2002

By	Milan M. Cirkovic (Belgrade, Serbia) - See all my reviews

Why the universe is just so? The question has been posed by scientists and philosophers for millenia, but only very recently have we accumulated enough physical and astronomical knowledge to be able to discuss these issues in a serious and quantitative manner. And, lo and behold! what modern cosmologists began to explore in earnest is a sort of necessary link between our own existence as intelligent observers evolved from the simplest procaryote lifeforms over billions of years and the properties of universe (and other universes!) at large. This link is technically called an observational selection effect, and if from now on anybody wishes to seriously study these matters, "Anthropic Bias" is without question an excellent place to start.

Bostrom's book makes amusing, although at times quite exacting, reading. Early on, he gives a splendid overview of the entire field of anthropic reasoning, much used and abused in the last quarter of century. Then, almost imperceptibly, he passes on to several instances in which the nature of the anthropic selection effect becomes clearer and clearer. From quantum cosmology to annoying traffic jams, from quantum mechanics to Adam and Eve thought experiments, from freak observers created by black holes' evaporation radiation to the (in)famous Doomsday argument of Gott, Carter and Leslie (not to mention future totalitarian world government and paranormal causation), the book reads as an exciting detective novel, as you rapidly change settings following the same thread of evidence to the main culprit: the universal observational selection effect, explained in detail in the Chapter 10, arguably the culmination of the drama. Here, Bostrom develops a theory which promises a unifying treatment of observations, in particular in cosmology, explicating in detail the accompanying Bayesian methodology. The unity of the underlying analysis is emphasized in the final Chapter, where new theory is aplied in several fields of contemporary research.

Probably the worst thing one can say about this book is that it is too short. After finishing it, the reader is left with the impression that the very scope of the new theory is such that there is enough material for entirely another book, or at least reconsideration of many issues treated previously. The re-reading potential is thus very strong. The reader will also find some consolation for finishing the book in a detailed and cleverly composed bibliography. In any case, she or he will probably never think about the relationship of man and the universe in the same way as before.

4 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Thought-provoking, March 16, 2005

By	Peter McCluskey (Mountain View, CA USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

This book discusses selection effects as they affect reasoning on topics such as the Doomsday Argument, whether you will choose a lane of traffic that is slower than average, and whether we can get evidence for or against the Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics. Along the way it poses some unusual thought experiments that at first glance seem to prove some absurd conclusions. It then points out the questionable assumptions about what constitute "similar observers" upon which the absurd conclusions depend, and in doing so it convinced me that the Doomsday Argument is weaker than I had previously thought.
It says some interesting things about the implications of a spatially infinite universe, and of the possibility that the number of humans will be infinite.
It is not easy to read, but there's little reason to expect a book on this subject could be both easy to read and correct.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent as usual, April 10, 2009

By	Rob Zahra (Manhattan, New York) - See all my reviews

This is a powerful unification and expansion of a number of papers Bostrom has written. He's usually many steps ahead of most other thinkers on whatever subject he's considering, and this appears to me to be the case here as well. I'm not fully comfortable with the conclusions about the relativity of one's choice of reference class, but I don't currently see any better solution. This book has made it much easier to think about the issues clearly. Highly recommended.