Baseball Prospectus 2009: The Essential Guide to the 2009 Baseball Season (Paperback)

~ Christina Kahrl (Editor), Steven Goldman (Editor), Nate Silver (Editor) "After the 2007 season, much was made of the observation that the Diamondbacks had finished significantly better than expected..." (more)
Key Phrases: batters age, pitchers age, defensive efficiency, Tommy John, Red Sox, White Sox (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Product Description

The 2009 edition of the New York Times bestselling guide to major league baseball that is simply “the best book of its kind” (Rob Neyer)

Now in its fourteenth edition, the Baseball Prospectus annual is the industry leader among annual baseball guides and the rightful successor to Bill James’s legendary bestselling Baseball Abstracts. The 2009 edition contains critical essays on each of the thirty teams and player comments for some sixty players for each of those teams. Each player’s statistics are projected for the coming season using the groundbreaking PECOTA projection system, called “perhaps the game’s most accurate projection model” (Sports Illustrated). Baseball Prospectus 2009 also contains cutting-edge essays on performance analysis, the likes of which have inspired twenty-nine of the thirty major league teams to hire current and former Baseball Prospectus writers and analysts as consultants. The baseball bible for fantasy players and devoted fans, Baseball Prospectus can be relied upon to once again hit it out of the park.

Product Details

• Paperback: 648 pages
• Publisher: Plume (February 16, 2009)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0452290112
• ISBN-13: 978-0452290112
• Product Dimensions: 10.7 x 8.5 x 2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 2.8 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (20 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #103,796 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

20 of 21 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Always a great read ... but what happened to the index?, February 16, 2009

By	Hal Jordan "A reader" (USA) - See all my reviews

The "Baseball Prospectus" is the best book of its type on the market. It carries on the tradition of the old Bill James "Baseball Abstract" much better than do similar books, including even the new "Bill James Gold Mine." The "Prospectus" contains an overview of every team, reviewing the 2008 season and looking ahead to the likely impact of offseason moves on the 2009 season. It also contains profiles of every player on each team's 40-man roster as well as the team's more promising players in the lower minors. "Lineouts" at the end of each team's entry give brief comments on more marginal players, such as minor leaguers who were once prospects, but whose careers have stalled because of injuries or poor performance. The conventional statistics are given for each player, as well as "translated" statistics that correct for the effects of playing in particular ballparks - such as the boost hitters get from playing in Coors Field in Denver - and several statistics that attempt to provide an estimate of the player's overall value. They also forecast what each player will do during the 2009 season using their PECOTA system. Finally, one fun thing is each player has a list of the four most comparable players in major league history. For instance, the four most comparable players to Ryan Howard are Mike Epstein, Cecil Fielder, David Ortiz, and Jim Gentile. What no Boog Powell or Frank Howard? Overall, it's hard to imagine a more complete overview of major league teams and players.

I have a few quibbles, however. Because different writers handle different teams, the assessments lack the single voice of the old Bill James "Abstracts." For instance, the comment on Edgar Renteria in the Detroit entry offers the opinion that: "The Giants surprised a lot of people by giving him $18.5 million for the next two years, but we've all but given up trying to figure out what the Giants are doing of late." Well, the author of the Giants entry has apparently figured out what the Giants are doing: "While it's easy to laugh at the move because of Renteria's mediocre 2008 season with the Tigers, it's also important to note that even if he's merely adequate again, that's an enormous improvement, perhaps as many as three or four wins, over what they suffered through at short last season."

Then there are the problems with rushing the book into print in early February. They have corrected some of the huge editorial problems of a few years ago, when the book was riddled with typos and some of the team comments were so poorly written as to be almost incoherent. But there are still problems. The most glaring one this year is the failure to include an index. Page ix of the Introduction reassures us that: "If you can't quite remember where a player ended up last September, there's an index in the back." Alas, presumably because of the rush to publish, there is no index this year. I also think some of the entries must be written before the translated statistics, defensive statistics, and comparables have been calculated. This was a problem a couple of years ago when the player comments would refer to a different list of comparables than the ones printed in the book. This year the comments seem to avoid references to the comparables, presumably because the comments were written before the comparables were calculated, but there are still some inconsistencies between the evaluations in the comments and the printed stats. Once again, take the entry on Edgar Renteria. The comment says that in 2008 Renteria had "what was the worst season of his career once you factor in his rapidly declining defense." But Renteria's entry shows a Defense rating of -9 in 2006 and 0 in both 2007 and 2008. So, rather than rapidly declining, Renteria's defense apparently improved significantly between 2006 and 2007, and then held steady in 2008.

But these are really just quibbles. Whether you need a good set of player ratings for fantasy baseball or are just a baseball fan wanting an entertaining read, the "Baseball Prospectus" is easily the best book out there.

8 of 9 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Predicting the future; detailing the past, February 17, 2009

By	The Ginger Man - See all my reviews

The Prospectus includes all MLB teams and players on 40 man rosters. This gives the reader a comprehensive look at stars, bench players, high prospects and even some organization players. The opening segment of the book explains the statistics that will be used in team chapters. In addition to the commonly used VORP (estimates the comparable value a player has over the average player), the Prospectus tries to quantify baserunning ability (EqBRR) and the impact a manger has on his team among innumerable other things. The authors also provide the "Pythagenport Record" for each team which estimates their wins and losses if luck were neutralized.

Prospectus writers do not always limit themselves to stats in their player analysis. Their description of the Angels' Bobby Abreu, for example, starts by admitting "our translations don't do justice to Abreu's brand of defense...You know those long drives that seem like home runs, only to die on the warning track? Abreu watches them bounce." The main thrust of the Prospectus, however, is that you can predict performance through numbers alone. White Sox first baseman Nick Swisher suffered through a drop in average in 2008 from 262 in his prior year in Oakland to a miniscule 219. The authors conclude "that it was the product of little more than bad luck." Since his walk rate, line drive rate and isolated power were in line with prior performance, he apparently did little wrong other than hit the ball at people for 6 months. I guess the breaks don't even out.

I am uncomfortable with the player projections for 2009 (PECOTA). The methodology used tends to average down historical results so that, for example, Dice-K is projected to drop from 18 wins to a 10-8 record while Ryan Howard is pegged to drive in 110 runs after not finishing below 136 in the prior 3 years. Maybe the authors are right, though, when they suggest that if you shudder and say something in the book can't be right, "Trust me: it probably is."

My favorite feature in the book is the suggestion of similar players or "comparables" for each of the players on the 40 man rosters. Some seem optomistic (Red Sox fans will be happy to see that Jason Bay could be the next Dewey Evans) while others take a player down a peg or two (Rays fans will have trouble comparing Matt Garza to Matt Keough or Ron Kline after his ALCS starts.) Some of the suggestions include a wide range of accomplishment. Yanks phenom Phil Hughes will either blossom like Roy Halliday or be rushed to the majors with dire results like Pete Broberg. Dice-K is either Chan Ho Park or Bob Gibson. If you are an older fan, it is fun just to see some obscure older players reborn as an analog for a new player. (Do you think the Red Sox were trying to get Jarrold Saltalamacchia because he is like Jim Pagliaroni? I'm sure the Indians did not trade CC Sabathia because they hoped former Gator Matt LaPorta would be the modern version of FSU's Greg Blosser.)

This book is great to thumb through, research players, or get an idea how your team will do. Keep it next to the television during the 09 season or bring it with you to your favorite sports bar to start some arguements. Whatever you decide to do with it, buy it. It is hard to get more information of any kind for $21.95.

3 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Should have been five stars, but they forgot the player index..., March 20, 2009

By	Joseph C. Sweeney (Portland, Maine) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

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Another year, another brilliant effort from the BP writers and editors. Though in this year's player comments there is little of the humor for which BP was known for this is still the best book of its kind to my knowledge. Maybe not as cutting edge as Bill James original Baseball Abstract's were back in the 1980's, BP is still required reading for serious and thoughtful baseball fans everywhere.

Well worth your time and money! Highly recommended.