The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity And What To Do About It (Hardcover)

~ Philip Longman (Author) "You awaken to the news that a traffic jam snarls the morning rush hour..." (more)
Key Phrases: rapid population aging, productive aging, global aging, United States, Middle East, New York (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Product Description

A controversial argument that reduced fertility and global aging threaten world prosperity, jeopardize national economies, and will change our way of life for decades to come.

Overpopulation has long been a global concern. But between modern medicine and reduced fertility, world population may in fact be shrinking--and is almost certain to do so by the time today's children retire. The troubling implications for our economy and culture include:
* The possibility of a fundamentalist revival due to the decline of secular fertility
* The threat to the free market as the supply of workers and consumers declines
* The eventual collapse of the American health care system as inordinate expenses are incurred by an aging population.

Phillip Longman's uncompromisingly sensible solutions fly in the face of traditional ideas. State intervention is necessary, he argues, to combat the effects of an aging population. We must provide incentives for young families, and we cannot close our eyes and hope for the best as an entire generation approaches retirement age.

The Empty Cradle changes the terms of one of the most important environmental, economic, and social debates of our day.

About the Author

Phillip Longman is a senior fellow at the New America Foundation and the author of numerous articles and books on demographics and public policy. Formerly a senior writer and editor at US News & World Report, he has written for such publications as The Atlantic Monthly, the New York Times Magazine, The New Republic, and the Wall Street Journal. He lives in Washington, D.C.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 256 pages
• Publisher: Basic Books (April 13, 2004)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0465050506
• ISBN-13: 978-0465050505
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 5.8 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (18 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #313,507 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

63 of 76 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Our population implosion, and what to do about it, August 30, 2004

By	William Muehlenberg (Melbourne Australia) - See all my reviews (TOP 1000 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

This volume examines the implication of global fertility decline, and offers some solutions to turn things around.

Longman begins by laying out the data. Today global fertility rates are half what they were in 1972.

Europe of course leads the way, with precariously low levels. Italy for example has just 1.2 children per woman. Spain is doing even worse, with 1.15 children. These two nations are experiencing the lowest fertility rates ever seen in recorded history.

All together, 59 nations making up 44 per cent of the world's population, are not producing enough children to avoid population decline.

What are the implications of such a demographic time bomb? Simply stated, we are rapidly becoming an aging society, with ever shrinking pools of young people. This has very real repercussions on many fronts. But a major worry of governments is how we are going to pay for this growing pool of the elderly, with these declining fertility rates.

As but one example, in Europe today there are 35 people of pensionable age for every 100 people of working age. If present trends continue, by 2050 there will be 75 pensioners for every 100 workers.

Longman asks why this demographic trend is unfolding before our eyes. One major factor is that it simply costs a huge amount of money to raise a child today. The increasing number of working women, and women in higher education, is another factor. So too are such reasons as declining male wages, fear of divorce, rising taxes, the absence of grandparents as child carers, contraception use and abortion.

The economic component is certainly a leading cause of childlessness. Human capital in general, and people in particular, are dwindling because the economy demands more of its workers to be well-educated, while it does not provide the time or the money for that education. In the past the best nurturing and education of future workers came from parents themselves. They were best placed to raise well-developed children who in turn would become productive members of the workplace.

But governments today are simply not compensating parents for this vital role. It simply is not economically worthwhile for parents to pour themselves into their children, when governments do not acknowledge and reward this valuable service.

Parents provide quality future members of the workforce, and they curtail an aging population. The returns to society are huge, but the returns to parents continue to shrink. And taxation is a major means by which parents are penalised today.

In the past governments paid men a family wage to adequately account for dependent wives and children, Today we have nearly the opposite situation, with families amongst the most heavily taxed groupings in society. Parents currently face huge tax burdens which most other individuals do not. Thus it just does not pay to have children.

So how do we turn things around? Removing economic disincentives is obviously key. Substantial tax relief for parents is a first vital step. Longman also proposes the encouragement of home-based employment and family business.

Other options are canvassed. While they may not serve as a panacea, the truth is that currents trends are unsustainable. The increasing growth of the number of elderly people, coupled by a decline in our birthrates, is a recipe for disaster. Any volume that alerts us to the dangers and offers some alternatives, as this book does, provides a useful service indeed.

28 of 33 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The Demograhic Destiny of Humankind, September 22, 2004

By	David B. Wolfe (Reston, VA USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

Books about the relationship between the well-being of the human condition and population growth have been controversial since Thomas Malthus. More contemporaneously, Ben Wattenberg¡¦s ¡§The Birth Dearth: What Happens When Free Nations Stop Having Babies?¡¨ drew caustic comments with its proposition that fewer babies have adverse as well as beneficial effects on society and its institutions.

I wish that people could do a better job of rising above their personal values to critically examine books like The Empty Cradle ¡V like the reviewer who criticizes the book because it ¡§promotes the idea that women staying home is the solution for falling birthrates.¡¨ The book does no such thing.

Among other valuable contributions to our thinking, The Empty Cradle reveals that 59 nations representing 44% of the world¡¦s population are headed for population contraction and that this is hastening the aging of societies worldwide, many of which have virtually no infrastructure in place to meet the needs of coming vast waves of elderly, and others whose infrastructures are woefully inadequate.

The upshot is, the health and ƒnwell being of the world economy stands to be challenged as never before by the first population contraction in modern times. We would ignore Longman¡¦s work at great peril to social, cultural and economic institutions ¡V and one might argue even the environment, for the shortage of resources to deal with the problems he describes will almost certainly seriously stress an already over stressed environment.

13 of 15 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Another perspective on the changing demographics of the world, February 3, 2007

By	Amazon customer - See all my reviews

I was drawn to this book because I was writing an article on how fears about population decline affect society's views on the importance of individual women's rights. In other words, at many times throughout history, hysteria about national population decline has often led to a weakening of society's support of women's rights to equal education and job opportunities as many argued that a woman's #1 duty to the state was to produce healthy offspring to fuel the economy and strengthen the military. This book addresses this issue as well as the connection between population decline and the rise of reactionary governments (fascism) and xenophobia. As the author seems to be coming from a somewhat "progressive" perspective, he warns that it is currently the more religiously conservative groups/cultures/nations that continue to reproduce at high levels whereas the more modernized, educated segments of society are having fewer and fewer children. This is a source of concern for the author as he prophesies a possible return to religious fundamentalism and ultra-conservative governments throughout the world. In its discussion of these issues, I found the book useful and interesting. I also like the fact that the author doesn't simply say that women need to return to their roles as housewives and have lots of babies. Rather, he suggests government policies that will make it easier for educated, working women to have children. While such suggestions will not sit well with conservatives, I personally think this is a preferable alternative (women like myself simply are not interested in giving up our financial well-being, careers and personal interests to become full-time housewives). And of course, not many men are making enough money to support a wife and children anyway. Traditionalists need to wake up to this reality.

That said, I am a bit skeptical about some of the alarmist tendencies in this book. The biggest population decline is occurring in the industrialized nations. However, we consume a disproportionate share of the world's resources. There simply are not enough natural resources on the planet for everyone to live as well as we do. Also, future shortages in vital resources like water and oil are serious threats as they could lead to more armed conflict as nations try to secure their hold on these necessities. So, from an environmental perspective, I don't know that the future population decline is really such a dangerous thing.

This debate over population decline is a very controversial issue since it touches on hot button issues such as the reproductive rights of women (i.e., birth control and abortion), immigration (fears that immigrant populations will surpass the "white" populations of the industrialized world), and environmental destruction. So, Mr. Longman could not have possibly suggested solutions that would please a vast segment of his potential readers. For one perspective on the situation, however, it is worth reading.