Big Trends in Trading: Strategies to Master Major Market Moves (A Marketplace Book) (Hardcover)

~ (Author), Marketplace Books (Author) "What does it mean to be a "contrarian"?..." (more)
Key Phrases: fund switchers, second straight close, largest winning trade, Nasdaq Composite, Acceleration Bands, Bollinger Bands (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Product Description

Praise for Big Trends In Trading

"Price combines the sciences of contrarian investing, technical analysis, and option valuation in a straightforward, easy-to-understand manner. He has always been well known for his thorough and accurate research, and he shows why in Big Trends in Trading. Serious traders will benefit from reading this book."
–Lawrence G. McMillan, President of McMillan Analysis Corp.

"Price Headley takes a dynamic view of such popular indicators as sentiment and volatility because he knows that the markets are not static but are always changing, and he shows you how to change with them. In addition, he tests the majority of his work and shows the success rates. A rare combination, and a must read for new and experienced traders alike."
–Thom Hartle, President of Market Analytics, Inc.

"This book should prove to be valuable reading for all technically oriented traders and investors. By emphasizing the ‘big trends,’ Headley stresses the importance of concentrating only in the most profitable situations–and tells you how to find them. I personally like his choice of technical indicators–and his unique way of using them. I also like his coverage of money management and the mental aspect of trading–which are just as important as the trading system employed–but too often neglected. All in all, an outstanding piece of work."
–John Murphy, author of Intermarket Technical Analysis,
The Visual Investor, and Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets,
and President of MurphyMorris, Inc.

From the Inside Flap

If you're the kind of savvy trader or investor who aggressively seeks profits in bull and bear markets, Big Trends in Trading: Strategies to Master Major Market Moves is for you. Price Headley, a trading expert and founder of BigTrends.com, draws on his extensive trading experience to show you how to find the best trends in the market and use proven strategies to capture profits from them. You'll learn the secret to success in any market by utilizing a trading plan that accurately identifies prevailing market conditions and then seeks out situations with the highest reward-to-risk ratios.

Big Trends in Trading explores indicators that will help you gauge investor sentiment so you can make significant gains before most other investors have even caught on to trends. You'll learn how to use:
* The CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio to determine upcoming turning points in the market
* RYDEX Mutual Fund Flows to gauge the speculative sentiment among active fund switchers
* The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) after an uptrend or decline
* Volume indicators that include vehicles such as the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ) and S&P 500 Depository Receipts (SPY)

. . . as well as services that track investor sentiment, including the Investors Intelligence (II) survey.

Big Trends in Trading also guides you through specific stock selection strategies that Headley has used successfully over his career. You'll learn how to use numerous standard technical indicators and measures such as Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Support and Resistance, Wilder's Average Directional Movement Index (ADX), as well as Headley's favorite proprietary indicators: Acceleration Bands and Momentum Divergence.

After a complete examination of indicators such as relative strength and growth-oriented fundamental factors, Big Trends in Trading moves from stocks to options and discusses the power of trend-based strategies for options buyers, as well as various other options strategies that will allow you to profit in all market environments. Strategies such as buying protective puts and selling covered calls can help you capture the best bang for your buck, while you manage the risks associated with your options trades.

Big Trends in Trading doesn't just teach you about the mechanics behind successful stock and options selection. This comprehensive guide goes beyond your average trading guide and addresses the key success factors often overlooked by traders. Headley guides you through the process of building a trading plan that will fit your personality, helps you identify and overcome hurdles to developing a winning mindset, and provides effective money management rules to minimize risk while maximizing your ability to profit from big trends.

Filled with powerhouse strategies, vivid case studies, and helpful charts, Big Trends in Trading will put you on the path to trading profits and investment success.

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 240 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; 1st edition (February 1, 2002)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0471412694
• ISBN-13: 978-0471412694
• Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.2 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (18 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #140,480 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

58 of 61 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Top Notch Book on Determining Market's Direction, June 12, 2002

By	L. Masonson (Monroe, New York USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

Price Headley, the founder of BigTrends.com, has shared many of his best market indicators with readers. I've seen Headley speak at a few Investor Expos and he not only knows his stuff, but he presents it clearly without going over the heads of the audience. He has taken the same approach with his book. I found the indicators that he reviews to be very useful in providing insight into them market direction. I have personally used a number of them myself over the years.

Not only does Headley provide the indicators, but he also includes the EasyLanguage Code for Tradestation platform users so that they can easily input his indicators on their PCs. Headley could have kept the settings of his indicators proprietary, but he chooses the high rode and shared them with his readers.

Now to the review of this book. Chapter 1 focuses on Headley's favorite contrary sentiment indicator -- CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio. Readings below 0.4 are considered bullish and above 0.8 bearish. He also draws standard Bollinger Bands (BB) on the ratio to add another dimension to determining extreme ratio readings. He also covers the weekly ratio, as well as intra-day readings. Moreover, he explains the Total Put/Call ratio (Equity and Index Options) and how to use it to determine fear or greed in the market. Throughout the chapter Headley shows the performance statistics of each indicator over specific timeframes with complete profit and loss statistics. He uses this approach throughout the book so you can see for yourself, which of the strategies have the most bang for the buck.

Chapter 2 covers the fund flows in and out of three Rydex Funds -- Nova, OTC and Ursa. Nova provides 1.5 times the performance of the S&P 500 Index. OTC mirrors the performance of the NASDAQ 100, and URSA is inverse the S&P 500
(short fund). Headley obtains the daily funds flow data for each fund directly from Rydex and then plugs the data into a formula : (Nova+OTC)/URSA. He found that the lower this ratio the lower was investor confidence in the market. This is a contrary indicator and a buy signal. The reverse is a sell signal.

Chapter 3 introduces the CBOE Volatility Index known as VIX. It is a measure of the expected volatility of stocks based on pricing of the S&P 100 (or OEX) options. VIX is also used as a contrary indicator with high readings bullish (40) and low readings (18) bearish.

Chapter 4 focuses on volume indicators. He uses the daily QQQ, NASDAQ Composite and Spyders with their respective volumes. He graphs the prices of these items with BBs on the data to identify overbought and oversold conditions.

Chapter 5 covers surveys used to gauge fear and greed in the markets. Headley recommends taking a contrary position to the survey results when they reach extreme readings. Surveys he reviews include the Investors Intelligence Bull and Bear Index, Consensus, Inc., AAII weekly poll, and Market Vane. Performance data using these surveys is also provided.

Chapter 6 reviews Headley's favorite classic trend indicators. These include weekly and daily moving averages, MACD, support and resistance, average true range, and ADX. He briefly mentions candlestick charts using one example, and covers a few points on system testing.

Chapter 7 introduces the "acceleration band" indicator developed by Headley. He provides an explanation of the logic behind it, the EasyLanguage Code and numerous chart examples. Headley is basically taking the directional movement each day (high-low) and dividing it by the average stock price (high+low divided by 2) to obtain the directional movement of the stock or index. Also included is a discussion of moving average envelopes (similar to BBs) and illustrations of their use.

Chapter 8 covers the concept of momentum divergences. Headley uses the MACD indicator to determine his key entry and exit points, then he introduces his unique Momentum Divergence Indicator with chart examples and TradeStation code. He then combines the momentum divergence with moving average envelopes to provide his buy and sell signals. He provides charts of 10 popular stocks and their performance using these indicators.

Chapter 9 focuses on the relative strength of stocks to its comparative market index. This has nothing to do with the RSI indicator although they have similar names. Headley recommends using an RS line with 5, 10, 20 and 50-day moving averages. He provides 6 chart examples with this data and a detailed explanation.

Chapter 10 and 11 cover the basic principles of trading options. Headley provides four simple option-trading rules. He then explains option strategies in different market conditions.

The book's last chapter (40 pages) reviews the key tenets of trading psychology and money management. Topics include: building a customized trading plan, psychological issues to be aware of, and effective money management rules. Headley provides not only 10 key questions to consider about your trading plan, but also reviews the answers to each question. To help the reader, Headley provides his only personal trading rules and suggestion and his daily trading process.

The bibliography contains about reference books on all aspects of investing and trading. There is a 9-page glossary of terms, and a list of 15 websites.

In conclusion, Headley does a masterful job of providing traders with time-tested indicators, including two self-developed ones that he shares with readers. Readers of this book should be able to incorporate Headley's indicators into their trading strategies and come out way ahead of the crowd.

26 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A Better Way to Invest and Trade In Volatile Markets, April 5, 2002

By	Jack Dehner (Newport Beach, CA USA) - See all my reviews

After reading my fair share of investment and trading books, I have to say that this one stands out - Headley offers a lot of practical, detailed ways to trade successfully in various market environments. I'm not the only one who learned since 1999 that simply buying and holding stocks can actually be quite risky - the point of the book is to show the way that bullish and bearish market and sector cycles have accelerated tremendously. As a result, you can either get punished during the rough stretches or take some steps to take advantage of the market's directional moves along the way. Best of all, the book takes some traditional ways of spotting big trends in stocks and updates them with new methods I've never seen before.

A couple of areas really stand out: The well-researched explanation of conventional technical and relative strength indicators used by William O'Neil, John Murphy et al. with new tools like Headley's Acceleration Bands and Momentum Divergence signals. These are things I was able to use immediately, thanks to the indicator formulas he provides. I've been able to enter and exit positions profitably overall without being badly affected by big market swings. I think that's the big difference here. Too many other investing guides simply rehash existing knowledge (or advertise someone's service) without helping you be a smarter investor. The book also opened my eyes to several key option strategies to help generate income or protect profits in difficult markets. I recommend this book to anyone who wants to expand their trading knowledge and apply the concepts to real-world trading.

22 of 22 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Sharing his perspective, July 29, 2002

By	Mark Mills (Glen Rose, TX USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

This represents an 'interim' review. I've read the book, but plan to make a second pass at a much slower pace. I may bounce the rating up to 5 when I get done. For now, the book gets a 4.

I like the book a great deal. In particular, I really like Headley's highlighting of sentiment indicators. At the end of the book, he shares a summation of his trading discipline. Much of it is a quick summary 'The Disciplined Trader' by Mark Douglas. The readers would be well advised to read Douglas directly, but if the material is new, it ought to be worth the price of the book by itself. For me, I enjoyed the insight into Headley's life style.

Headley's writing style strikes me as somewhat 'stream of consciousness', though. For example, while discussing his use of the Put/Call ratio, he states: "The next put/call signal occurs on February 16th, when the put/call ratio crossed back below the upper band to register a 49 percent reading on February 16th, after a 55 percent number occurred the prior day (February 15th). What you notice in this example is that the put/call ratio then has another surge above the upper band two days later, on February 18th at 63 percent. What should be done in these situations? Since a bullish position is already established, you should seek to follow the indicator and stay with the signal until it is either reversed by a sell signal (which would only occur at the other extreme, below the lower band, usually after a rally) or if the time is up for the trade (in the bullish case, after 15 trading days). As you can see in this case, ...."

Along side these blow by blow trading commentaries, Headley presents the TradeStation EasyLanguage code for mechanically trading the QQQ based on sentiment readings.

Why go into these daily details if he is just following a set of rules? Rather than spend time on the day by day commentary, I wish Headley had discussed the process of picking parameters for his trading system. Why 15 days for the long position but only 2 for the short? Additionally, without going through the day by day commentary with a fine tooth comb, I'm not sure he isn't bringing in extra considerations outside those in his mechanical trading system.

Ditto for the divergence discussion.

If you happen to be a TradeStation user, the code provided in the book won't run on the current version (TS 6). It's not that hard to up date, but don't expect to type the code into TS 6 and expect it to run. Also, the TradeStation datafeed doesn't offer the CBOE put/call ratio, nor convenient means of getting into the system, so it is a bit hard to try put/call ratio ideas out.