The Art of Modeling Dynamic Systems: Forecasting for Chaos, Randomness, and Determinism (Scientific and Technical Computation Series) (Hardcover)

by Foster Morrison (Author) "Modeling is neither science nor mathematics; it is the craft that builds bridges between the two..." (more)
Key Phrases: linear filtering methods, constructivist mathematics, analytic manipulations, Type Zero, Hierarchy of Dynamic Systems, Isaac Newton (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Product Description
In the coverage of dynamics, there is a definite gap between ``picture-book'' popularizations and the technical literature. This work fills that gap. Shows engineers and scientists how, by the application of statistical methods, coordinate transformations and mathematical analysis, any complex, unpredictable dynamical system can be mapped--transformed into a simpler, predictable system. The various modeling tools available, their benefits and their limitations are described. Examples and analogies are used in place of theorems and proofs, making this an immediately practical book. By showing how to make models more meaningful and useful, it will be particularly helpful in clearing up the impasse between economics and system dynamics. Features a number of carefully selected references to more mathematical treatments, examples of some of the more specialized techniques and case histories of some models.

From the Publisher
In the coverage of dynamics, there is a definite gap between ``picture-book'' popularizations and the technical literature. This work fills that gap. Shows engineers and scientists how, by the application of statistical methods, coordinate transformations and mathematical analysis, any complex, unpredictable dynamical system can be mapped--transformed into a simpler, predictable system. The various modeling tools available, their benefits and their limitations are described. Examples and analogies are used in place of theorems and proofs, making this an immediately practical book. By showing how to make models more meaningful and useful, it will be particularly helpful in clearing up the impasse between economics and system dynamics. Features a number of carefully selected references to more mathematical treatments, examples of some of the more specialized techniques and case histories of some models.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 387 pages
• Publisher: Wiley; 1ST edition (January 16, 1991)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0471520047
• ISBN-13: 978-0471520047
• Product Dimensions: 9.4 x 6.4 x 1.2 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.7 out of 5 stars See all reviews (6 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #1,019,679 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

13 of 15 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Single best reference for "modern" applied modeling, September 29, 1998

By A Customer

This is a fantastic book and I'm sorry it's hard to get now. I found it by accident in a used book store in Madison, WI, in 1995 and found I learned a lot from it, even though by that time I had already taken multiple classes in Differential Equations, Linear Algebra, Statistics, etc. Dr. Morrison really sets out in lucid detail many of the important developments in applied modeling theory--dynamical systems, stochastic systems, the fudamentals that lie behind them--from a very useful perspective, and one that is often missing from the orthodox academic treatments. What he chooses not to cover in detail he references thoroughly. I wish that I had had this book when I was learning many of the topics. Anyone who is seriously considering learning dynamic modeling should read this book and I have little doubt that fairly experienced modelers will find something between the covers.

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Mathematical Depth and Descriptive Simplicity, May 20, 2005

By	Gyro (Sydney Australia) - See all my reviews

I find myself agreeing with all the comments made so far.

It's not too common to find a book that is able to describe in simple terms, such a large and diverse range of mathematical tools.

The author uses a framework - to tie together tools used in describing and handling deterministic, semi deterministic, and stochastic systems. For an example of Deterministic, try ODE's (ordinary differential equations), for semi deterministic - try Periodic but noisy wave-forms (some stock prices), and finally Stochastic - Random looking waveforms that have underlying patterns that can be described using either using Chaotic indicators (Hurst, Liapunov ) or probability type descriptors.

This book is the kind of thing you needed to help steer you through those dry mathematical books that are divorced from reality - A sort of classification system for deciphering what kind of gunpowder was used in those display's of intellectual fireworks from the tops of ivory towers. Kinda "So thats what all that maths means, but in plain english".

A depth of understanding, for practical application, without intellectual egotism and opaqueness. (But then maybe I'm just a bit thick ... :)

I'd tend to call this book as an equivalent to the Rosetta Stone for the maths of dynamical systems.

You may not use it directly - but you will benefit and grow in understanding from its' plain and simple sign posts along your journey.

It has its place on my book shelf.

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A masterpiece, January 24, 2002

By	jerry f (Maine) - See all my reviews

This is the kind of book that should be available in every area of science and mathematics. A book that is not a research book, but yet is not a broad popularization. This book can benefit both persons who are just beginning a study of dynamic modeling and I dare say things will be learned by even those that are researchers in the area. Good work Foster Morrison whoever you are.