Stock Trader's Almanac 2005 (Spiral-bound)

~ Jeffrey A. Hirsch (Author), Yale Hirsch (Author), Hirsch Organization (Author) "We are pleased and proud to introduce the Thirty-Seventh Edition of the Stock Trader's Almanac..." (more)
Key Phrases: monthly percent changes, monthly closing prices, particular trading day, Dow Jones, Almanac Investor, Month Close (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Product Description

J.P. Morgan's classic retort "Stocks will fluctuate" is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye implication that the only predication one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down, or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move.  Nothing could be farther from the truth. We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, the do so in well-defined, often predictable, patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 practically all the gains in the market were made during November thorough April compared to almost nothing May through October? (See page 50)

The Almanac is a practical investment tool. Its wealth of information is organized on a calendar basis. It alerts you to those little-know market patterns and tendencies on which shrewd professional enhance profit potential.

You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the Almanac to help you understand:

• How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market - just as the moon affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be sure that money managers who control billions of millions of dollars are also political cycle watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout most of our economic history.
• How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer. This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each year with only five major errors since 1950 for a 90.7% accuracy ratio.
• Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month, and year.

Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators and patterns, your investment survival could hinge on your interpretation on one of the recurring patterns found with these pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there’s the pure joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.

From the Back Cover

Critical Praise for STOCK TRADER’S ALMANAC 2OO4

"Jeff Hirsch is following in the great tradition of his father, Yale Hirsch, with this nonpareil almanac of Wall Street data. It’s a treasure for investors who want to remember the past as they plan the future."
–LOUIS RUKEYSER, host and commentator of the world’s favorite money program, Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street and Editor in Chief of the monthly Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street and Louis Rukeyser’s Mutual Funds newsletters

"Information is key to successful investing and investors will find the Almanac chock-a-block source of need-to-know stuff."
–STEVE FORBES, President, CEO, and Editor in Chief, Forbes

"I have every issue since 1976 in my bookcase. The Stock Trader’s Almanac is an invaluable resource."
–MARTY ZWEIG, author, Martin Zweig’s Winning on Wall Street

"The Stock Trader’s Almanac should be on every investor’s desk. It’s an invaluable source of investment advice, trading patterns, and Wall Street lore. It’s also fun to read. I refer to it frequently throughout the year."
–MYRON KANDEL, CNN Financial Editor

Product Details

• Spiral-bound: 192 pages
• Publisher: Wiley (October 28, 2004)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0471649368
• ISBN-13: 978-0471649366
• Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.7 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.3 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.8 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (9 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #682,391 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

19 of 20 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Masterful Guide on Stock Market Seasonal Patterns, December 7, 2003

By	L. Masonson (Monroe, New York USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

This review is from: Stock Trader's Almanac 2004 (Spiral-bound)

The average investor probably believes that stock prices are a "random walk" and that no one can benefit from analyzing stock market price history. These investors would be "wrong" as is the case with most of the conventional wisdom on Wall Street. The stock market exhibits many recurrent calendar-based patterns that intelligent investors can use to enhance their personal investment results while decreasing risk.

This calendar/organizer/planner is in its 37th edition and the authors have done a masterful job or presenting the information in a useful and easy-to-understand manner. They've provided investors with a complete historical perspective on daily, weekly, monthly, and annual stock market patterns and strategies.

There is particularly useful data on how to take advantage of the presidential four-year cycles, the best six months strategy for the DJIA and S&P500, the best eight-month strategy for the NASDAQ Composite, and the strongest and weakest months of the year.

Traders as well as short-term and long-term investors will all benefit from the insights provided in this "gem" of an investment almanac. Traders, in particular, can benefit from the many daily and holiday market patterns occur with a high frequency. Every person who invests in the stock market, without taking into account the vital information in this almanac, should not complain about his or her poor performance.

Also included in this almanac are monthly percentage and point moves in the S&P 500 and DJIA from 1950 through June 2003, and the entire NASDAQ Composite data from 1971 to June 2003. Tables listing the 10 and 20 best and worst days and weeks and the 20 best and worst months in percentage and point terms since 1901 are also provided.

In summary, the Stock Trader's Almanac is a masterpiece of stock market history that keeps getting better every year. It is an indispensable guide to successful investing. I highly recommend it to all investors and traders.

21 of 23 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars This book can make (save) you money, January 7, 2004

By	dean_from_sa (Plano,TX) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Stock Trader's Almanac 2004 (Spiral-bound)

This is the third year in a row I have reviewed this almanac. Clearly I believe there is real value in this tome. The introduction last year had the quote "We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence." in the introduction. In this book you will find a compilation of money making market anomalies. If you believe the market is efficient this is not the book for you.

In the prior edition was an extensive review of the effect of the pre-presidential election year. It would have been a great tip off to the rally that began in March of 2003. There hasn't been a losing year in the Dow 30 since FDR. If you had reviewed this page you would not have been caught flatfooted. (see page 42 & 30). In this year you can review the historical track record of election year markets (pg 34).

In fairness, the Lester indicator (on page 40) was misleading in 2003 as the Dec 2002 low was violates and then the S & P roared to new highs in March. It was tradeable in that with proper risk control you could have made a 4%+gain, below the average listed as 10.7%.

Sometimes there is additional work you can do to make the #s more understandable. I went to page 18 to calculate the net Feb-Dec return of the respective January Effect listings (after all, aren't you most interested in how it performs after you get the signal?). For the record, it was not a good signal this year.

There is a review of Larry William's "The Right Stock at the Right Time". The review mentions many market anomalies like are found in the Almanac. I will make a point to read this book. I read the book reviewed in the 1993 edition and it was exactly as represented, so I have great confidence that this review is spot on as well. There are several other investment books as well on page 98

If you want to play the various oddities to beat the market, this book makes it simple. Since it has a week by week calendar, it could be your organizer. Imagine that, an organizer that makes you money.

16 of 17 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars This book can make you money, January 8, 2003

By	dean_from_sa (Plano,TX) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Stock Trader's Almanac 2003 (Spiral-bound)

"We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they do so in well-defined, often predictable patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result of chance or coincidence."

Thus begins this book in the introduction to the 36th edition. If you believe that days of the week, times of the year and part of the election cycle affect the stock market, then this book may contain many useful information points and actionable strategies. If not, read no further.

This edition contains much about the 3rd year of the presidential term and its prior effects on the stock markets. Page 42 (charts on page 30) contains a summary from 1915-1999. I shouldn't mention what it says, but the effect has been powerful in the prior observances. There is an actionable strategy in the book.

At the beginning of each month there is a summary of how that month had performed in prior years and how that might be best used in 2003.

The research that has been done into the January effect and the Santa Clause Rally is explained and action points are given. You can use this almanac to time your participation in the rally.

On page 52 is the summary of the "best 6 months" with an actionable strategy that, if it holds, will pay for this book and many others. It is powerful not only because of its simplicity, but because it takes advantage of many not easily noticed trends. This one stratagem makes the book worthy by itself.

Of interest are the reviews of a book about trading that the author/editor thought worthy of note. A review by Rockefeller of Trading Classic Chart Patterns is this year's added bonus (it is a reprint of a review from a magazine).

The book has a calendar with one week per page. You can use it as a substitute for a daytimer, though there isn't a tremndous amount of room on each day for notes. Imagine that, a daytimer that makes you money.