Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (Hardcover)

by Kees van der Heijden (Author) "Scenario planning has a long history emerging from its use by the military in war games..." (more)
Key Phrases: scenario agenda, innovative child care, entrepreneurial invention, Distinctive Competency, Lame Duck, Pierre Wack (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Review
“…all important subjects for the modern manager are covered in 5 parts…” (Business Books – web) --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

Product Description
"Kees van der Heijden has written the most comprehensive, detailed and insightful guide to understanding the business environment in a way most useful to business. No one has mastered the art of bringing that insight to bear in the real world of business with greater depth than Kees." Peter Schwartz, Chairman, Global Business Network; author of The Art of the Long View.

The only constants in the current business environment are turbulence and change. When initially developed at Royal Dutch/Shell, scenario planning helped companies understand external change — change in markets, the competitive arena, technology, demographics and so on. In this book, Kees van der Heijden takes the art of scenario planning one giant step further. After showing you how to understand how the world around you is changing, he then shows you how to move your organization to meet the future by linking scenario thinking and your Business Idea in an ongoing strategic conversation. The result is a learning organization with the finely honed ability to track the marketplace and business environment. How Scenarios will help you think through the way forward, and keep you thinking as you move.

• Understand the basis of an organizations success — articulate its central business idea
• Break out of the organizations restrictive "thinking box" — take a wider perspective, scenaric view
• Develop scenarios as alternative ways of interpreting the present — see beyond current range of vision
• Become clearer about the many apparently unrelated developments — build a systemic framework using a story line
• Be more secure with the future — understand uncertainty
• Do it by using a practical methodology
• Nurture and sustain an ongoing strategic conversation throughout the organization

"The span of this book is unusually wide: it goes from the philosophy of scenario thinking to the minute practicalities of how to do it. This book is, in my view, the best guide in a field where it is easy to go astray and where guidance is precious." Pierre Wack, Former Head of Scenario Planning, Royal Dutch/Shell

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 320 pages
• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons; 1 edition (October 24, 1996)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0471966398
• ISBN-13: 978-0471966395
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.3 x 1 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.8 out of 5 stars See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #668,562 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

22 of 22 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Strategic Processes MasterGuide, November 24, 2000

By	Prof David T Wright (Vancouver, BC) - See all my reviews

Aimed at business strategists or consultants, this book provides many deep, usable tools, and approaches assisting the development of more robust projects and organizations across a range of futures.

The well referenced attractive chapters span:

++ The context- history in Shell, and three paradigms (rationalist/ evolutionist, and processualist).

++ The principles of scenario planning- the business idea, uncertainty, scenarios, and scenarios planning in organizations.

++ The practice of scenario planning- practitioner's art, articulating the business idea, competitive positioning, scenario development, and option planning.

++ Institutionalizing scenario planning- the management of change, planning processes, and guiding the strategic conversation.

Strengths include: the credibility and rigor of content (the author has 35 years experience in this field!); the attractive style and presentation; the sets of checklist & guidance for those embarking on scenario planning exercises; and extremely relevant tools for senior managers (and whole organizations) to avoid "analysis-paralysis" number-crunching or Las Vegas gambling on guesswork and charisma. The main weakness (to this reviewer) was a need for more case studies, and perhaps more occasional humor/lightheartedness.

Overall, a great text which goes very well with the high quality Gill Ringland's "Scenario Planning- Managing for the Future" (Wiley, 1998, ISBN 047197790X).

17 of 17 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A Life-Time's Experience in Scenarios and Corporate Strategy, July 14, 1997

By A Customer

What makes this book such high-value reading is not just the quality of the author's argument; it is the way in which he lets us participate in his wealth of experience gained over many years of conducting practical scenario work. Readers with a professional background in corporate strategic planning will profit from this thoughtful exposition of accrued processual knowledge. Newcomers are offered a unique opportunity to make a direct shortcut to the results of a life-time's professional learning in this highly complex field of practice. This is not to say, of course, it could replace personal experience to be made by each individual alone; however, Kees van der Heijden offers a clearly structured guide to the Whys and Hows of organizational learning based on the scenario approach to planning. (read more about this great book at http://www.unisg.ch/~sgzz/links/stp/futres/bookrev.htm)

14 of 14 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Packed with Knowledge!, July 14, 2005

By	Rolf Dobelli "getAbstract.com" (Switzerland) - See all my reviews (TOP 50 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

This review is from: Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation (Hardcover)

Many business books provide just enough information to whet executives' appetites for more advice accompanied by high consulting fees. Author Kees van der Heijden has written an exception. His comprehensive volume puts scenario building in historical context, explains its relationship to forecasting and tells you how to introduce scenario planning to your organization. Once you understand your corporate identity and your fundamental "Business Idea," he says, you can establish and enact informative scenarios that will prepare your company for several different versions of what lies ahead. In that way, scenario planning generates better decision making. We strongly recommend this book to top managers, strategists and planners, especially those who sense they're making decisions on the fly without having a structure for thinking deeply about future implications.