The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy (Hardcover)

by William Strauss (Author), Neil Howe (Author) "AMERICA FEELS LIKE IT'S UNRAVELING..." (more)
Key Phrases: fourth turning, second turning, missionary generation, World War, Civil War, Social Security (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review
The Fourth Turning continues the project of mapping out the place of generations in history, a project begun in the authors' earlier books Generations and 13th Gen. If millennial fever takes hold, The Fourth Turning may be only the first of an impending wave of pseudo-scholarly tracts prognosticating future (but imminent!) doom as we collectively close the books on this millennium. Those expecting a serious or dry tome might be put off by the authors' taste for bulleted text and catchy phrasings, but can you blame these guys for wanting to make impending peril as exciting as possible? After all, they think we are headed toward "events on par with the Revolution, the Civil War, or World War II" in the next 20 years. Mixing solid understanding of present generational divisions, with some fairly broad generalizations, Strauss and Howe promise to move from history to prophecy. Fans of Future Shock, Megatrends, or Powershift will be familiar with the authors' style of writing and not at all put off by the book's reach or style. Their take on history provides an intriguing (if not always reliable) lens through which to view the past, present, and maybe even the future.

From Library Journal
After researching historical patterns, the authors (Generations: The History of America's Future, Morrow, 1991) conclude that America is on the verge of crisis. They substantiate their hypothesis by identifying and tracing a repetitive, four-stage historical cycle that, throughout recorded time, started on a high note and ended in hardship. Narrator Michael Tilford's polished, convincing voice and steady pacing lend an air of legitimacy to the authors' assertions. A brief question-and-answer session between the narrator and the authors at program's end provides an interactive quality that enhances the sometimes methodical drone of the historical analysis. Like other works of prophecy, The Fourth Turning should circulate well in public libraries.?Mark P. Tierney, The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Copyright 1997 Reed Business Information, Inc. --This text refers to an out of print or unavailable edition of this title.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 382 pages
• Publisher: Broadway; 1st edition (December 27, 1996)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 055306682X
• ISBN-13: 978-0553066821
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.1 x 1.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (85 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #29,659 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

66 of 67 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Sweeping, compelling, and quite readable, September 29, 2003

By	Marc A. Pitman "Fundraisingcoach.com" (Waterville, ME USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

I picked up a copy of "The Fourth Turning" because to refresh myself on the generational differences of donors. I was hoping to help a colleague wrestle with how to apply fundraising techniques with attention to these cohorts. Having read the authors' 13th Gen a few years ago, I knew this would be an erudite review. I got what I was looking for and much more! "The Fourth Turning" is actually a compelling look at human history, especially Western history since the middle of the fifteenth century!

Howe and Strauss have amazingly taken the most recent 20th century generations (GI, Silent, Boomer, Xer, and Millennial) and found corresponding generations for the last few hundred years. From this, they've developed a convincing rubric of generational archetypes-GIs and Millennials are the "Hero," Silents are the "Artist," Boomers are the "Prophet," and Xers are the "Nomad." Moreover, they've revisited the millennia old theory that time moves through seasons in a cyclical pattern, one that corresponds with the seasons of the year. The post-WWII era was our "High" or spring; the Consciousness Revolution was our "Awakening" or summer; the 80's and 90's was our "Unraveling" or fall; and we're currently headed for our "Crisis" or winter. They chose to label the seasons "turnings" and the time encompassing the four turnings as the "saecula," a label used by the ancients that roughly corresponds to a century.

With an amazing attention to detail, a scholarly eye to history, and a wonderfully readable writing style, Howe and Strauss show the interplay of the generational archetypes and the turnings. For example, they point to the similarities of the spiritual emphasis of the 1960s and 1970s with the Transcendentalists of the 1800s, the Great Awakening of the 1700s, and the Puritan Awakening of the 1600s, and the Protestant Reformation of the 1500s!

"The Fourth Turning" will definitely affect the way you view history as well as the events of today. Though written in 1997, they illustrate "highly unlikely" scenarios that might precipitate the coming Crisis such as: "A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons. The United States and its allies launch a preemptive strike. The terrorists threaten to retaliate against an American city..."!

While I don't know if we're currently into the Crisis or not, I do know that "The Fourth Turning" is a must read for anyone trying to raise money in today's economic environment. Not only will the savvy fundraiser ferret out ways to frame their case for the different generations, she will also see how different turnings may affect fundraising efforts. If we are indeed heading for a fourth turning, and Howe and Strauss make that highly believable, I think we in the nonprofit world are uniquely situated to help our cultures ride out this winter and successfully enter the spring.

Although full of grim warnings, "The Fourth Turning" is a hope-filled book well worth reading.

CONTENTS:

1. Winter Comes Again

PART I: Seasons
2. Seasons of Time
3. Seasons of Life
4. Cycles of History
5. Gray Champions

PART II: Turnings
6. The First Turning: American High (1946-1964)
7. The Second Turning: Consciousness Revolution (1964-1984)
8. The Third Turning: Culture Wars (1984-2005?)
9. Fourth Turnings in History
10. A Fourth Turning Prophecy

PART III: Preparations
11. Preparing for the Fourth Turning
12. The Eternal Return

Acknowledgements
Notes
Index of Names

61 of 63 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Explanatory--but don't rely on it entirely, February 19, 2002

By A Customer

This review is from: The Fourth Turning (Paperback)

The book _The Fourth Turning_ is a history combined with prophecy written by generational sociologists William Strauss and Neil Howe. This book is inspiring and provides interesting explanations for why things are the way they turned out to be, but it still doesn't have all the answers.

The theory is basically that history goes through four types of turnings: a conservative High, in which institutions are stable after the success of a major war (the Era of Good Feelings, the Victorian Era, the '50s), a spiritual Awakening in which young people scrap convention for religious discovery (Ben Franklin's Great Awakening, the Transcendental Awakening, the turn-of-the-century Muckrake reform era, the '60s), a wild Unravelling (the colorful Gold Rush, the roaring twenties, and the current era that began about 1984), and a fourth turning -- or Crisis (the Revolutionary War, the Civil War and the Great Depression and World War II were the last three examples). A catalyst will spark the Fourth Turning that will become around 2005. These turnings change when each generation enters a new phase of life.

After you read this book, it's one of those books that completely transforms your mode of thinking. Both the present and the prophesied future are explained by means of generations -- fit into four different types ("archetypes") that shift along with the turnings. The authors identify the Lost Generation (born 1883-1900), the G.I. Generation (born 1901-1924), the Silent Generation (born 1925-1942), the Baby Boomers (born 1943-1960), the 13th Generation (born 1961-1981) and the Millennial Generation (born since 1982). They explain how these generations relate to those throughout history, and date the historical generations born all the way back to 1433. Generation X, for instance, which corresponds roughly with what they identify as the 13th Generation, is similar to the freewheeling Lost Generation of the Roaring '20s, their flouting of the Drug War brings to mind the Lost Generation during the Prohibition Era. Once you read this book, you start to think of everyone generationally, all your family and friends, people you know, celebrities, people you read about in the news, historical figures, the characters on TV shows and the ages of people in TV commercials. Your mind accepts a completely new paradigm -- and a classification of people that works, as the authors state, much more reliably than gender, ethnicity, or even region of the U.S.

Not to say that there aren't problems with this book. They broke off the 13th Generation from the Millennial Generation at 1981/1982 in their earlier work _Generations_, written in 1991, and have continued to keep this boundary and their early descriptions for the Millennials in this book. The kids born in 1982, whom they place as the first Millennials, were just entering high school when this book was written and were predicted to become known as a conventional, traditional and "Scout-like" generation, keeping a reputation as little angels. Unfortunately, none of the 1982, 1983, 1984... kids I know have this personality...their breakoff may have come a little too early I fear. Not all their predictions from this or earlier books have succeeded, but that's all right, because future or no future, the pattern works remarkably well as a mnemonic device for remembering and understanding history perfectly well, making the order in which historical figures came along much more memorable. I wish I'd had this way of studying history when I was in high school!

From this they prophesy the future -- that America is poised to enter a Crisis Era shortly around 2005, just when the generations are ripe. This era will see a national mood of extreme urgency, sweeping changes made in national policy, and a change across the generations to a much more traditional lifestyle and set of values, as Strauss and Howe predict. This book is a thought-provoking read, but if you're looking for something to explain 9-11 as so many of us were, don't look here. _The Fourth Turning_ was written about a "catalyst" for a Crisis that will change the direction of institutions in the year 2005, or if not in 2005, shortly before or after. All everyday interests in entertainment are supposed to disappear, and the change will be caused by something that wouldn't have brought about a drastic change in mood 10 years ago. It will be caused by the alignment of generations around 2005, when the Boomers are ready to enter elderhood (turn 65) and the Silent Generation is going to be into its eighties and start disappearing from the scene. It was NOT written about catastrophes like 9-11 or similar events. We get these extreme drastic events from time to time that shock people temporarily, as 9-11 did, just because of their intensity and death toll, wherever they occur. Look around 2003-2008 for the "Catalyst" Strauss and Howe have identified to pop up and permanently change the public mood. It will be something that will change the era and bring America to crisis because all the generations are poised and ready to enter their new stage of life.

In addition to its imperfections, the book has a heavily conservative bent sticking out, no doubt reflecting some of the attitudes and wishes of the authors. I cannot forgive the book's forceful attitude, pushing us all to get back to trust in public institutions and in the government. Strauss and Howe call for conservative restrictions on behavior to get the next turning pushing along. For instance, they advise the reader in getting ready for the next Crisis to give up any eccentric behavioral habits he or she may have. They tell the reader to put "duties over rights" and to conform to the standards of decency of his community. Even before the Fourth Turning, there is no doubt a single agenda they push without compromise, in what one would think would be a totally neutral book in the values regime department.

All in all, read this book if you're interested in history and generations (but take the generational boundaries and collective personalities with a grain of salt), and don't look for ALL your answers here.

65 of 72 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Historical Prophecy, February 22, 2003

By	James Hiller (Beaverton, OR) - See all my reviews (TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

This review is from: The Fourth Turning (Paperback)

Member of the 13th Generation? Millenial Generation? The Boomers? Care to track your own development through the maze of historical events to find out where you've been, and more importantly, where you are going? Where our country is going? Then pick this book up immediately. Simply put, the "Fourth Turning" is THE most important book written in the last twenty years, and a book that should be required reading.

Strauss and Howe apparently have devoted their lives to the study of history and the development of generations in societies. The book is loaded, and I mean, loaded with historical references, some of which I wasn't familiar with until now. By looking at these events, and more importantly, looking at the people that went along with those events, Strauss and Howe noticed some recurring patterns in generations over the centuries. Apply this pattern to our country, and to our future, they have correctly predicted that we are headed for a "Fourth Turning", a time of great criss and peril.

Normally, I shun books that people claim to have "visions of the future" involved with them. They are frequently erroneous and based on the whims of the author. However, "The Fourth Turning" is different. By basing their theories of the future on past events, they offer support and credence to their thoughts. The effect is both enlightening and chilling, but it is one that we simply cannot ignore.

I found every single page of their book fascinating as a study or recent history and future history. Also, I personally found self-enlightenment in reading about the generation in which I belong, the long lost "Gen X" crowd, or the title they label it, "13th". It explains a lot about the world in which I was raised, and the world we live in today.

One chilling fact: this book was written in 1997, and the authors predicts a calamatous and unimaginable event in the early part of the 2000s that would signify the start of the Fourth Turning. Who can read this book and not think of September 11th?

Don't delay. Read this book. We are entering a winter in our times, and those people prepared with that knowledge certainly will have a more steady base in the fourth turning to come.