Chances Are . . .: Adventures in Probability (Hardcover)

by Michael Kaplan (Author), Ellen Kaplan (Author) "We search for certainty and call what we find destiny..." (more)
Key Phrases: house advantage, Monte Carlo, United States, Francis Galton (more...)

Editorial Reviews

From Publishers Weekly
Everything is possible, yet only one thing happens": this is the essence of probability, quantifying what could happen. Filmmaker Michael Kaplan and Ellen Kaplan (coauthor of The Art of the Infinite) trace probability back to its original conception in the 1660s (by a gambler, of course) and show how it affected not only science, which would be impossible without it, but also religion and philosophy. Many pioneers of the math that grew into statistics were trying to define the divine; the inventor of combinatorics, for example, was a medieval missionary seeking to convert Muslims by showing that any statement combining the qualities of God was true in the Christian faith. This book rigorously develops its math from first principles with a passion that would make even an amateur heady with the possibilities contained within a bell curve. The authors explore the promise of the math of probabilities through its most powerful modern applications, from determining the effectiveness of new drugs to weighing the merits of combat strategies. In all these cases, the authors place the study of probability firmly in the context of humanity's ongoing struggle to assign meaning to randomness. Never before has statistics been treated with such awe and devotion.

From The New Yorker
This fascinating layman's trek through probability theory, from its roots in dice games in the seventeenth century to its role in modern-day thermodynamics, tackles humanity's innate need to seek order in even the most chaotic phenomena. The authors, a mother-and-son team, address simple problems (How many shuffles make a deck of cards truly random? At least seven) and more complex ones (Can time move backward? Yes, but it's unlikely). They do not avoid mathematical equations, but both have backgrounds in the humanities, and their sense of whimsy—"Once you know that daisies usually have an odd number of petals, you can get anyone to love you"—allows them to draw stimulating conclusions.
Copyright © 2006 The New Yorker

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 336 pages
• Publisher: Viking Adult (March 23, 2006)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0670034878
• ISBN-13: 978-0670034871
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.2 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars See all reviews (29 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #243,623 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

44 of 45 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Very Entertaining Journey of Risk and Probability, March 31, 2006

By	ZMed "Medical Ventures" (Boston, MA) - See all my reviews

I loved this book! It's a quick read and received high praise by the New York Times and the New Yorker, so my humble comments only echo those. This book weaves a rare combination of entertaining stories with precise lessons of how risk and randomness affect our daily lives. One can tell the authors' depth of experience and love of teaching the interplay of mathematics, philosophy and the human condition. The mother and son authors chose a wide variety of historical vignettes and modern life dilemmas, making the discussions very accessible and entertaining. I enjoyed Steven Levitt's Freakonomics for its mix of illuminating stories, but I felt like this book explored a richer set of classic historical examples and many more lessons on risk that I can apply to my real-life decisions.

14 of 14 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars James Tanton, July 9, 2006

By	James Tanton (USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

This is a truly phenomenal book! As a mathematician and a mathematics educator I have certainly studied and taught the mathematics of probability theory and statistics. I have always worked to convey to my students the story of the subject (mathematical story that is) and the intellectual context of the work, as well as convey a sense of the overall structure of its historical development. But I am a tad embarrassed to admit that I did not truly appreciate the *human context* of this subject until I read CHANCES ARE ....

Ellen Kaplan and Michael Kaplan have pieced together, clearly after a phenomenal amount of archival research, the picture of man's struggle to harness chaos and randomness in his life. The story they tell is compelling and richly human. Divided into 11 chapters, each section of text deals with the story of one particular aspect of the unpredictable - understanding the spread of disease and the effectiveness of vaccines, for instance, the role of the uncertainty in the courtroom, the effects of the unpredictable in political interactions and warfare, all connected to the innate human desire to master the unknown. Ellen and Michael not only explore factual details related to describing, accepting, and, in some cases, conquering uncertainty, but also discuss and reveal the psychological impact randomness induces at every stage of its contemplation. Reading their work becomes a personal experience: we see that the struggles encountered by a society are the personal struggles we each experience. This book is revealing on a multitude of levels.

Written with humor and eloquence, the book is a delight to read. Although mathematical formulae are kept to a minimum, mathematical richness of ideas is not denied. As an educator, I hope this book will become required reading for all students of probability and statistics. But this, of course, is not the only audience of readers. CHANCES ARE ... is an important book, absolutely relevant and accessible to all who are human. It is fundamentally a book about us.

17 of 19 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Entertaining, Stimulating, Useful!, April 21, 2006

By	history buff (Robbinsdale, Minnesota) - See all my reviews

This is a very special book. Michael and Ellen Kaplan put forth an intriguing thesis. We are taught deductive reasoning in geometry and logic classes, inductive reasoning in science. This book is about the great valley in between where we spend most of our lives: probability. They throw us some fun problems at the start to show that many of us (e.g. me) may not grasp probability intuitively. The "Blue Cab/Green Cab Problem" is an eye opener. If 85 percent of the cabs in a city are green, 15 percent blue, and a witness with 80 percent accuracy spots a blue cab, is it likely to actually be blue or green? The answer is surprising. People focus on the 80 percent accuracy, but the key is the 15 percent of blue cabs. This is more than a fun math problem. It can help you judge medical tests. A less-than-perfect diagnostic test of a rare condition is likely to be misleading. (Don't depend on your doctor; the Kaplans show that MDs are not good at probabilities.) There is a wonderful chapter on gambling and some new insights into Pascal's Wager. Pascal says to bet on the existence of God; the Kaplans, after doing the math, are not so sure. Again, this is more than just an academic exercise. A band of Evangelical Christians are currently going around our community using Pascal's Wager as an argument for converting young people to their fundamentalist Christianity. The authors also address the Monty Hall problem: whether a contestant on "Let's Make a Deal" should switch doors when Monty reveals what's behind one of them. Everybody knows by now, if they've read about the problem in USA Today or the NY Times, that one always swtiches. But the Kaplans are the first to explain the theoretical underpinnings of the problem, comparing it to the Principle of Restricted Choice in bridge. There's more. Philosopher David Hume said that the fact the sun has risen every morning is no proof that it will rise tomorrow. But the Kaplans show that Bayesian probability offers math that is not proof per se, but evidence of probability. My psychotherapist suggested I use Bayesian probability to help deal with my great variety of unrealistic anxieties. I am terrified, for example, of having to go to the bathroom on a long bike ride with no restroom nearby. Actually calculating the probability of this happening, using past experience, has relieved this nervousness. The best thing about the book, though, is its tone. Most math-book authors are making one point: they are smart and everybody else is dumb. The Kaplans are not arrogant, and explain why it's natural that we make the mistakes we do. They poke fun at the "geniuses" at the RAND Corporation who got annoyed when people refused to act like RAND mathematical diagrams predicted they would act. The RAND folks tried to convince two presidents to make a preemptive nuclear strike at the Soviet Union, but thankfully dumber but more experienced men prevailed (Truman and Eisenhower). An excellent book. There is a 100 percent chance that you will enjoy it.