Hubbert's Peak: The Impending World Oil Shortage (Hardcover)

~ (Author) "Global oil production will probably reach a peak sometime during this decade..." (more)
Key Phrases: shoestring sands, oil window, oil source rocks, United States, Middle East, Gulf Coast (more...)

Editorial Reviews

From Scientific American

You have to wonder about the judgment of a man who writes, "As I drive by those smelly refineries on the New Jersey Turnpike, I want to roll the windows down and inhale deeply." But for Kenneth S. Deffeyes, that's the smell of home. The son of a petroleum engineer, he was born in Oklahoma, "grew up in the oil patch," became a geologist and worked for Shell Oil before becoming a professor at Princeton University. And he still knows how to wield a 36-inch-long pipe wrench.

In Hubbert's Peak, Deffeyes writes with good humor about the oil business, but he delivers a sobering message: the 100-year petroleum era is nearly over. Global oil production will peak sometime between 2004 and 2008, and the world's production of crude oil "will fall, never to rise again." If Deffeyes is right--and if nothing is done to reduce the increasing global thirst for oil--energy prices will soar and economies will be plunged into recession as they desperately search for alternatives.

It's tempting to dismiss Deffeyes as just another of the doomsayers who have been predicting, almost since oil was discovered, that we are running out of it. But Deffeyes makes a persuasive case that this time it's for real. This is an oilman and geologist's assessment of the future, grounded in cold mathematics. And it's frightening. Deffeyes's prediction is based on the work of M. King Hubbert, a Shell geologist who in 1956 predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s and then begin to decline. Hubbert was dismissed by many experts inside and outside the oil industry. Pro-Hubbert and anti-Hubbert factions arose and persisted until 1970, when U.S. oil production peaked and started its long decline.

The Hubbert method is based on the observation that oil production in any region follows a bell-shaped curve. Production increases rapidly at first, as the cheapest and most readily accessible oil is recovered. As the difficulty of extracting the oil increases, it becomes more expensive and less competitive with other fuels. Production slows, levels off and begins to fall.

Hubbert demonstrated that total U.S. oil production in 1956 was tracing the upside of such a curve. To know when the curve would most likely peak, however, he had to know how much oil remained in the ground. Underground reserves provide a glimpse of the future: when the rate of new discoveries does not keep up with the growth of oil production, the amount of oil remaining underground begins to fall. That's a tip-off that a decline in production lies ahead.

Deffeyes used a slightly more sophisticated version of the Hubbert method to make the global calculations. The numbers pointed to 2003 as the year of peak production, but because estimates of global reserves are inexact, Deffeyes settled on a range from 2004 to 2008. Three things could upset Deffeyes's prediction. One would be the discovery of huge new oil deposits. A second would be the development of drilling technology that could squeeze more oil from known reserves. And a third would be a steep rise in oil prices, which would make it profitable to recover even the most stubbornly buried oil.

In a delightfully readable and informative primer on oil exploration and drilling, Deffeyes addresses each point. First, the discovery of new oil reserves is unlikely--petroleum geologists have been nearly everywhere, and no substantial finds have been made since the 1970s. Second, billions have already been poured into drilling technology, and it's not going to get much better. And last, even very high oil prices won't spur enough new production to delay the inevitable peak.

"This much is certain," he writes. "No initiative put in place starting today can have a substantial effect on the peak production year. No Caspian Sea exploration, no drilling in the South China Sea, no SUV replacements, no renewable energy projects can be brought on at a sufficient rate to avoid a bidding war for the remaining oil."

The only answer, Deffeyes says, is to move as quickly as possible to alternative fuels--including natural gas and nuclear power, as well as solar, wind and geothermal energy. "Running out of energy in the long run is not the problem," Deffeyes explains. "The bind comes during the next 10 years: getting over our dependence on crude oil."

The petroleum era is coming to a close. "Fossil fuels are a one-time gift that lifted us up from subsistence agriculture and eventually should lead us to a future based on renewable resources," Deffeyes writes. Those are strong words for a man raised in the oil patch. For the rest of us, the end of the world's dependence on oil means we need to make some tough political and economic choices. For Deffeyes, it means he can't go home again.

Paul Raeburn covers science and energy for Business Week and is the author of Mars: Uncovering the Secrets of the Red Planet (National Geographic, 1998).

Review

"The book is a gem...it's better to know what lies ahead than to be surprised too late to respond." -- Brian J. Skinner, American Scientist

Deffeyes's unsettling message is that... humanity has a brief period in which... [it must] design alternative energy sources. -- Dan Johnson, The Futurist

Read Hubbert's Peak-­it's better to know what lies ahead than to be surprised too late to respond. -- Brian J. Skinner, American Scientist

Reading Hubbert's Peak is the intellectual equivalent of bungee jumping, being simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying. -- R. C. Selley , Geological Magazine

This book . . . should be read . . . by all politicians, by all students, no matter what their discipline, and indeed by anyone concerned about their grandchildren's welfare. Reading Hubbert's Peak is the intellectual equivalent of bungee jumping, being simultaneously exhilarating and terrifying. -- Review

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 285 pages
• Publisher: Princeton University Press (October 1, 2001)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0691090866
• ISBN-13: 978-0691090863
• Product Dimensions: 9.3 x 6.4 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 15.8 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 3.7 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (67 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #423,719 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

80 of 87 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The wolf is at the door, November 2, 2001

By	Dohn K. Riley (Tahoe City, CA United States) - See all my reviews

Deffeyes hits the nail on the head when he clearly details what petroleum industry insiders already know - it's not "if" global oil production will peak, it's "when." After years of warning about the imminent demise of cheap oil supplies, experts are now splitting hairs about whether or not inexpensive oil production will peak in this decade or the next. The author's easy-going, occasionally humorous prose makes the bad news easier to take, but either way, a serious global oil crisis is looming on the horizon.

Deffeyes energizes his readers by sweeping us easily through the denser strata of the complexities and developmental progress that built "Big Oil," but he also warns of relying on technology to save us in the future. Unlike many technological optimists, this life-long veteran of the industry concludes that new innovations like gas hydrates, deep-water drilling, and coal bed methane are unlikely to replace once-abundant petroleum in ease of use, production, and versatility. The Era of Carbon Man is ending.

A no-nonsense oilman blessed with a sense of humor, Deffeyes deftly boils his message down to the quick. Easily-produced petroleum is reaching its nadir, and although they are clean and renewable, energy systems like geothermal, wind and solar power won't solve our energy needs overnight. "Hubbert's Peak" represents an important aspect of the energy crisis, but it is only one factor in this multi-faceted problem that includes biosphere degradation, global warming, per-capita energy decline, and a science/industry community intolerant of new approaches to energy technology research and development. An exciting new book by the Alternative Energy Institute, Inc., "Turning the Corner: Energy Solutions for the 21st Century," addresses all of the components associated with the energy dilemma and is also available on Amazon.com.

Anyone who is concerned about what world citizens, politicians, and industry in the United States and international community must do to ensure a smooth transition from dependence on dangerous and polluting forms of energy to a more vital and healthier world, needs to read these books. Future generations rely on the decisions we make today.

46 of 51 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The Story of Oil, The End of Oil, September 18, 2001

By	Ron Patterson (Huntsville, Al USA) - See all my reviews

Kenneth Deffeyes, Princeton professor and former oil field geologist, tells the story of oil, right up to the beginning of the demise of oil. He takes the methods developed by M. King Hubbard, the man who accurately predicted the peak in U.S. oil production, and applies them to world oil production. The book makes absolutely riveting reading. The first few chapters deal entirely with the source and production of oil. I kept wondering, as I was reading these chapters, what has this to do with Hubbert's Peak and the coming decline in oil production? Then it began to dawn on me, one has to know everything about oil to accurately predict the future production of oil. Deffeyes is that man and he covers every possible base. Many say "Just drill deeper" or "There is oil in the deep ocean", but Deffeyes shows why drilling deeper can yield natural gas but not one drop of oil and why oil from deep ocean sediments is impossible. Deffeyes leaves no stone unturned and covers every possible source of oil.
Deffeyes expects the peak in world oil production at around 2005 but says it could come as early as 2003 or as late 2006. There is a fair amount of jitter in the year-to-year production so picking the exact peak is difficult. But he reminds us that the center of the U.S. Best fit curve was 1975 and the actual peak came in 1970. He says however, there is nothing plausible that could postpone the peak until 2009.
Of course Kenneth Deffeyes is not the only oil field geologist that is predicting an impending peak in world oil production, Colin Campbell, Jean Laherrere and several others have been doing that for several years. The data supporting the impending peak and decline is sometimes difficult to interpret but Deffeyes lays the data out in undeniable terms and in such a manner that the average layman can understand it.
The only problem I had with the book was I felt Deffeyes was overly optimistic as to the effects of the coming decline in world oil production. He sees only a decade or so of difficulties until we get over our dependence on crude oil. Many others however, who have looked more closely at the possibility of alternate sources of energy to replace cheap portable oil, find no possible replacement. And....most of these see nothing short of a worldwide holocaust a few years after the peak. They say the world's six billion people are supported by a network of food production and transport that will be impossible to maintain when oil production begins to drop and the price of the remaining oil begins to rise dramatically.
But by all means, BUY THIS BOOK. Not only will it convince you of the inevitability of the impending peak and decline in oil production, but also it will give you the ammunition and data to convince those around you, to convince them and give them time to make preparations for....for something I find too hard to even imagine.

50 of 58 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Only one more oil crisis, but it'll be a doozy, February 27, 2002

By	Royce E. Buehler "figvine" (Cambridge, MA USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

While millions of environmentally concerned Americans are ready to vilify on reflex what Molly Ivins flippantly dubs "the oil bidness," Kenneth Deffeyes thinks of the petroleum fields as a place of high spirits and high romance. But, having spent half his life working for Shell, and half of it training later generations of fossil fuel hunters, he is here to break the bad news to us gently. And the news is, the party's over. The days of derring-do among the derricks are just about done.

Thirty years ago, U.S. oil production peaked, and has been declining ever since. Shortly, world oil production will hit the same peak, and begin to decline. That doesn't mean there will be no oil left; thirty years after hitting its own peak, the U.S. is still the second largest oil producer in the world. But it does mean that demand will outstrip supply, and that means the economic dislocations of the late 70s - the spiking prices, the long gas lines, the deep recession - will become permanent. Eventually, other sources of energy, both renewables and plentiful fossil fuels like natural gas, will fill in the breach. But it will be a long and painful process, requiring a ton of capital investments in research and in infrastructure that a suddenly poorer first world will be ill able to afford.

"Shortly", Deffeyes argues, means in one to six years, and probably in the early part of that range. One can quibble with some of his arguments for that timing. With luck, he acknowledges, there may be one significant set of oil fields yet to be discovered, in the South China Sea (unexplored so far because the competing jurisdictions of the several nearby island nations have made contracts hard to nail down.) And I don't think he's given sufficient weight to the fact that all the oil recovery in the Middle East is still "primary", using old-fashioned pumping technology. But if all the quibbles are granted, it only affords the world economy another five or ten years of grace.

So, if Deffeyes is wrong, the time to start making those massive investments and changes is today. If he is right, the time to start making them is ten years ago, and all we can accomplish by swift action is to make the period of intense pain a decade or two shorter. Though Professor Deffeyes isn't political enough or impolite enough to say so, Clinton (for all his green talk) failed to provide any leadership to reduce our dependence on petroleum. And his successor, of course, is providing energetic leadership, but all of it is geared to marching us all double-time into still more rapid consumption of what little oil is left. History will remember neither President Slick, nor President Oil Slick, any more kindly than it now remembers Herbert Hoover for fiddling while the fuse that would set off the Great Depression burned.

The book is an easy read, short and set in a conversational style that permits the reader to glide through the more technical portions if so inclined. The technical details and the mathematical arguments could be tighter, and the folksiness, which would be delightful in a lecture room, is occasionally a bit much on the written page. For those reasons, it would be easy to give the book only four stars. But those faults are inseparable from the book's virtues. They're compromises Deffeyes chose to make in order to be accessible to a wide audience, and his book deserves to reach one.

If environmentalists take Deffeyes' message seriously,they'll realize that we will soon be so starved for oil that ANWAR is certain to be plundered, and that nuclear plants are certain to sprout across the landscape like, well, like mushrooms. If Deffeyes is on or near target, nothing can prevent those developments. Greens today should be using ANWAR and an expanded nuclear industry as bargaining chips, to be traded for strict CAFE standards, investment in renewable technologies, non-industry oversight of nuclear safety, and (since the near term alternative will be coal) investment in natural gas pipeline infrastructure.