The Doomsday Scenario: How America Ends (Hardcover)

~ Douglas Keeney (Author) "A view of a 10 megaton thermonuclear blast seen from a distance of 136 miles..." (more)
Key Phrases: capability assumptions, mobilization planning, thermal pulse, United States, Air Force, Nevada Test Site (more...)

Editorial Reviews

From Library Journal

In 1998, Keeney (Secret Messages: Concealment, Codes, and Other Types of Ingenious Communications) found a brief document in the National Archives that had recently been declassified, titled The Emergency Plans Book. The document presents the U.S. military's picture of a nuclear attack by the Soviet Union and the grim aftermath faced by the survivors. Keeney copied the text, which soon was reclassified in 1999 and remains as such in the archives. Now published with a commentary on various technical terms and concepts, it makes for chilling reading. During the Cold War and the nuclear standoff with the Soviets, the U.S. government assumed that a full nuclear attack would kill 25 million Americans outright. Millions more would die owing to other illnesses, hunger, and exposure. Also, most of the country's economic, transportation, and communication systems would need to be rebuilt from the ground up. Stephen Schwartz of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists provides a foreword that draws comparisons between the government's actions outlined in the document and its reactions to the September 11 terrorist attacks. This dark but important book is recommended for all libraries. Stephen L. Hupp, West Virginia Univ., Parkersburg
Copyright 2002 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

Product Description

During the height of the Cold War, the U.S. Government prepared a document, known as The Emergency Plans Book, outlining what might happen to America in the event of total nuclear war with the Soviet Union. In late 1998, the National Archives declassified this document, and the authors made a copy of it. In 1999, the document was reclassified, once again burying the information in the halls of secrecy. This book is based on the only known declassified copy in existence, and is an unedited presentation of the Plans. This is a shocking snapshot of what our government was thinking might happen if Russia attacked, supported by expert commentary and compelling photos of the results of real nuclear explosions. Illustrations of U.S. nuclear weapons tests show the effects of atomic explosions on ordinary things: houses, factories, cars, tanks, radio towers, etc. It tells the sobering truth about the utter destruction the U.S. government assumed would happen to America in the event of total nuclear war. It also decribes the government's seemigly futile plans to deal with it.

Product Details

• Hardcover: 128 pages
• Publisher: Zenith Press; illustrated edition edition (February 2002)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 076031313X
• ISBN-13: 978-0760313138
• Product Dimensions: 8.3 x 5.4 x 0.7 inches
• Shipping Weight: 11.4 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 3.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (11 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #52,675 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

28 of 30 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Valuable inside look at Cold War nuclear strategy, June 14, 2003

By	J. N. Mohlman (Barrington, RI USA) - See all my reviews (TOP 1000 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

"The Doomsday Scenario" by L. Douglas Keeney is actually a briefly declassified copy of the "Emergency Plans Book", a high level consideration of the challenges facing the U.S. in a post nuclear strike world, published in 1958. Along with Keeney's extensive footnoting (on opposite pages to the original text) and an excellent introduction by Stephen I. Schwartz, that is the extent of the book; thus, those reviewers who have argued that this book is dry are correct, although I would argue that their focus is incorrect.

Keeney's primary purpose in "The Doomsday Scenario" was to make available to the public a fascinating snapshot of how the government viewed the prospects for survival in a nuclear war as the Cold War approached its height (although, ironically, 1958 was a time when the U.S. actually had legitimate first-strike capability). As such, his notes are largely contextual (he also includes some excellent pictures of test shots, which effectively convey the destruction being so baldly stated in the document) rather than opinion or conjecture. Hence, if you are looking for a fleshed out portrait of a individual survival after a nuclear war, I would recommend fiction such as "Alas, Babylon", "On the Beach" or "The Last Ship". However, if you are interested in Cold War history in general, "The Doomsday Scenario" offers a superb primary reference, and nicely frames the nuclear strategy of the following thirty years.

As for the text itself, the document covers quite thoroughly (albeit at a high level) all of the military and societal implications of a nuclear war. Among the items considered are casualties, accessibility to medical facilities, economic consequences, food production, transportation and communication. Surprisingly, the government is rather bleak in its assessment and takes a worst case view in most instances. That's not to say that they were wrong to do so, but American's have become accustomed to the positive spin-doctoring of their elected officials, and it was a little odd to see the fact being so plainly stated. Although brief, there are still more points than I could consider in a review, but there were a few aspects of the document that I (and the author) found intriguing. Specifically, although chemical and biological weapons are never considered at length, nuclear weapons are explicitly only part of a suite of WMD's that the U.S. anticipated the Russians using. It is noteworthy that the government anticipated outbreaks of Yellow Fever, smallpox, cholera and even plague within a few weeks of an attack. While the breakdown of medical services would account for some of this, there seems to be a darker consideration underlying this assessment. At the same time, the plan explicitly considers sabotage (e.g. terrorism) playing a significant role in any Soviet strike.

Which brings me to my one complaint about this book: all to often Keeney draws comparisons to 9/11. While 9/11 was certainly awful, it pales in comparison to a nuclear strike, and while some of his comparisons are valid (strain on the communications network being one) all to often he assumes that the U.S. could rebound from 50 million casualties in the same way it did from a few thousand. There's just not much common ground between these two events, and while I believe Keeney is sincere, repeated analogies with no foundation in reality begin to smack of exploitation.

Ultimately, this is a book that will be best appreciated by those interested in the Cold War as a whole. As I mentioned early, this work is best utilized when it provides context and insight for other aspects of the struggle between the U.S. and U.S.S.R. While dry, the original document is fascinating in and of itself, and in spite of my complaint above, Keeney generally provides valuable insight into what the document is really saying.

Jake Mohlman

8 of 8 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars A Dull Government Publication That Should Be Read, March 16, 2002

By	Harold W Miller (Springfield, MO USA) - See all my reviews

"Doomsday Scenario" isn't a great work of historical writing, however, it is an explanation of a most important government document. It is the "official" prediction of what might have occurred if the United States and the Soviet Union engaged in full-scale thermonuclear war. The actual document, "The Revision of Emergency Plans Book, which remained secret for over forty years, no doubt, guided the policy making of presidents from Eisenhower to Reagan so it should be read.

If it wasn't for the commentary by the authors, it would be extremely turgid with all of its passive sentences. But this is how the military writes its scenarios. I was fascinated how the military from the extensive above-ground atomic tests found out how nearly impossible it was to decontaminate military installations and naval vessels. Other observations seem to indicate that the government had no feasible way of recovering from World War III.

The book, slim as it is, does show in pictures the effects of nuclear bombs on civilians and civilian structures. The authors do point out that nuclear bombs aren't supernaturally fatal and that they have recognized limitations. The authors also point out similarities to World War III and the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center. But the postulated thermonuclear war can't really be compared to what happened on September 11, 2001. The potential loss of one in five Americans really would be a disaster that could only visit this nation once.

"Doomsday Scenario" is a important piece of American History.

7 of 7 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Not mass market but worth the cash, March 4, 2002

By	Adam Brown (Freehold, NJ USA) - See all my reviews

One of a kind book, it covers most aspects of a full scale nuclear assualt by the USSR during the cold war. It provides a grim look at the civilian and governmental aspects but is nearly devoid of even references to the military aspects of such an event, this is due mainly to the fact that section B of the document which the book was written on entitied "MILITARY EFFECTS" was not declassified. The book tells in dry but grity detail the aftermath and the effects on the populace as well as providing information about our and the USSR's nuclear capibilites at the time you sure not to find any where else. It also detials what the countries state of industry as well as the state of resources such as fuels and medical supplies, and attempts to give estimations on efforts to rebuild. To top it off the author tried to tie such an event in with 9/11, these rather poor attempts rarely shed any light on what the mental state of america would be after the bombs dropped. Overall this isnt a mass market book but for enthusiasts on the subject its a must read.