Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Behavior (Paperback)

~ Brian J. L. Berry (Author) "That skepticism about long waves is well founded, despite the graphs presented in the Introduction, is illustrated no more clearly than by Figure 7, which..." (more)
Key Phrases: primary vortex, wholesale price index, inflationary spiral, United States, New Deal, Annual Percentage Change (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Review

"This is an amazing book... Given the evidence, Berry has tried to sort out sound theory from speculative hypothesis in the literature." -- Journal of Regional Science

"Examines the rhythmic upswings and downturns of prices and economic growth, and the clocklike timing of turning-point crises in American development." -- Journal of Economic Literature

Product Description

Is economic development a "random walk" or do underlying rhythms and cycles make it possible to anticipate long-term trends? Many social scientists have rejected the notion of long-term periodicity in economic trends. Now, after extensive analysis of economic data, distinguished scholar Brian J. L. Berry has found new evidence for the reliability-- and the value-- of "long-wave" theory.

In "Long-Wave Rhythms in Economic Development and Political Bahavior", Berry argues that the synchronization of long waves and growth cycles is "more than a figment of some overactive imagination". Presenting his findings graphically, he argues that there is persuasive evidence of the existence of "deterministic chaos". Applying his analysis of rates of change to the economic phenomena of prices (Kondratiev cycles) and growth (Kuznets cycles), he discovers that pairs of 25-year growth cycles are embedded within 55-year long waves. As a result, Berry concludes, two different kinds of growth cycles-- one inflationary and the other deflationary-- form a complementary pattern of alternating crises with stagflation and depression. Berry also explores the "shifting sand" of cyclical phenomena in the stock market, voting behavior, the incidence of wars, the rise and fall of great powers, and mass psychologies. While avoiding dogmatic conclusions, he offers a provocative discussion of the long-wave context of social phenomena.

As he examines the American economy in long-wave context, Berry optimistically asserts that the "bust" is not inevitable. Technological advances in information transfer enable leaders and organizations to anticipate and alleviate the adverse effects of economic cycles. "Like it or not", he writes, "our lives appear to be embedded in a higher order of complexity: collectively, we are a societal organism that displays self-regulating fluctuations around a path of growth."

Product Details

• Paperback: 256 pages
• Publisher: The Johns Hopkins University Press (January 1, 1991)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0801840368
• ISBN-13: 978-0801840364
• Product Dimensions: 8.9 x 6 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #746,025 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

11 of 11 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Highly recommended, March 2, 2001

By	Mike Alexander "[e-mail]" (Kalamazoo, MI USA) - See all my reviews

The topic of this book is the economic cycle called the long wave or Kondratiev cycle. The Russian economist Kondratiev did not discover these cycles, but he was the first to study them in detail. Long waves may be responsible for various long term trends: the slow down in productivity growth and wages after 1973, the "Reagan revolution", Toynbee's cycles of War and Peace, stock cycles (my focus) and others. This is the reason why people study them. The idea that long waves are major factors in these trends (or that they are even relevant at all) is controversial. Berry's book represents a modern day treatment of this topic.

I bought this book when I was researching the Kondratiev cycle as a possible explanation for stock market cycles (see my book Stock Cycles for more information). Berry presents an excellent overview of the longwaves literature in a single moderately-priced volume, and it is an excellent place to start a serious study of long waves. What I really liked about the book was the strongly empirical flavor where historical inflation and GDP data were smoothed and plotted in various ways that really "bring the cycles out". The focus is on letting the data "tell their own story", which was most refreshing in my opinion.

11 of 13 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars A compelling examination of the long wave..., March 18, 1999

By A Customer

Berry examines the factors associated with the long wave (Kondratiev Wave) and its sub-wave cousin the Kuznets Cycle as they affect the growth of city-building and overall economic growth and decline in the U.S. since the beginning of the republic.

According to Berry, the "stagflation peak" of 1981 will eventually give way to a recession/depression trough sometime between 2006-12. Contrary to the otherworldly optimism and manic expectations of Wall Street and the American public at large, Berry expects a deflationary cycle to begin at any time (March 1998), resulting in mass restructuring and dislocation that will require most of the next decade to resolve.

Following the trough around 2010, however, Berry expects the K-Wave and Kuznets cycles to resume their growth period, which is expected to rise into the growth period peak in the early 2030s.

In the context of A. Gary Shilling's "Deflation...", one would be wise to seriously consider reallocating his or her investment portfolio to perpare for a severe decline in stock prices (50% or more by 2002), in order to avoid the serious losses associated with the Kuznets deceleration wave and the collapse portion of the K-Wave. Bonds will be an attractive alternative to stocks following the panic and collapse phase, as interest rates will dramatically fall as will consumer prices throughout the next decade.