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Book Description
Imagine sitting at the blackjack table in a Las Vegas casino, or even playing poker for pennies with a few friends. Do you trust your instincts to tell you when to hold or fold? Or is there something else at work, some scientific principle that could explain the probability of a preferred event occurring?
Imagine sitting at the blackjack table in a Las Vegas casino, or even playing poker for pennies with a few friends. Do you trust your instincts to tell you when to hold or fold? Or is there something else at work, some scientific principle that could explain the probability of a preferred event occurring?
We often think that our common sense should tell us roughly what the odds are on a particular event. We might even insist that our subjective hunches about the likelihood of an event simpley must be right because of the universally known "law of averages." Your Intution is Wrong allows you to try your hand at applying that common sense and those hunches to several situations and is likely to demonstrate to you that your intuition is not necessarily a trustworthy ally when it comes to discerning "the odds."
Marc T. Simon explores the use of probability and statistical analysis in this light-hearted, upbeat book in which our intuitive responses are placed under heavy scrutiny. In a humorous yet thought-provoking way, Simon tells readers that inuition alond cannot be counted on in games of chance. In other words, before going to Las Vegas or Atlantic City, read this book!
The author is quick to point out, however, that gambling is not the only arena in which to test probability theory. By using ordinary situations, Simon opens our eyes to the role of probability in everyday life, demonstrating that math kept hostage on classroom chalkboards is a narrow focus indeed.
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