Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas (Paperback)

by Marcus Noland (Author) "The Korean peninsula is a densely populated area with few natural resources save some mineral deposits in the North..." (more)
Key Phrases: obsolescence shock, capita income target, suspected nuclear site, North Korea, South Korean, United States (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Review
" . . . (This) encyclopedic coverage of the two Korean economies . . . will be widely read and cited." -- Il SaKong, Chairman and CEO of the Institute for Global Economics and former Minister of Finance of the Republic of South Korea

"Avoiding the Apocalypse is unique in its breadth and rigor...essential reading for anyone interested in the future of Korea." -- Joe Stiglitz, Former Senior Vice President of Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank

"Noland has digested everything that can be relied upon to understand North Korea and made it widely accessible." -- Journal of Asian Studies; Lawrence B. Krause, UC San Diego

"Noland's account offers especially timely insights and guidance." -- Robert B. Zoellick, Former U.S. Undersecretary of State, and White House Deputy Chief of Staff

"Noland's exhaustive study. . . offers a 'tour d'horizon,'. . . as well as extensive analysis of unification's likely effects." -- The Japan Times

“The best way to [be prepared for the worst]is to read “Avoiding the Apocalypse.” -- The Japan Times

Product Description
On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the post- war era confronts a famine-ridden and possibly nuclear- armed totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea, and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs. This study (*), the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. Out of these, the future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and muddling through in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation. June 2000. 300 pages (approx.). ISBN: paper 0-88132-278-4. $22.00.

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Product Details

• Paperback: 425 pages
• Publisher: Institute for International Economics (June 2000)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0881322784
• ISBN-13: 978-0881322781
• Product Dimensions: 8.9 x 6 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.4 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.6 out of 5 stars See all reviews (16 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #1,292,082 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

30 of 32 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars An insightful analysis of prospects on the Korean peninsula, October 23, 2000

By A Customer

By drawing on other-country parallels such as German unification, or the experiences of China and Vietnam as they re-engaged with the world community, "Avoiding the Apocalypse" provides interesting insights about N. Korea's future and the possible implications for the South. This book is unique among other N. Korea titles in that it is underpinned by rigorous economic analysis while, at the same time, exhibiting a sound understanding of geopolitical dynamics of the peninsula and of the interests of key player countries (S. Korea, Japan, US, China). The book presents a comprehensive analysis of N. Korea's economy and policies (past and present), and an assessment of future prospects for the Korea peninsula in light of several plausible alternative scenarios of policy developments in the North.

"Avoiding the Apocalypse" contains a wealth and depth of information Mr. Noland has obviously acquired through his research and interactions with key economic, political and military personalities in North and South Korea, Japan, the US and China. I found this book to be very well written, and in a style accessible to a general educated readership. Unusually for such a weighty book, the text includes cross-cultural sayings (i.e. proverbs) and metaphors, in addition to insider quotes, that make the book an interesting read indeed.

I recommend the book highly for anyone interested in a thorough review of N. Korea and in knowing what the current state of play is as regards N. Korea's integration into the world community of nations. If you're interested in a fresh and intellectually stimulating perspective on the events unfolding on the Korean peninsula, this is also the book for you.

24 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars First-rate analysis of a critical issue, November 3, 2000

By A Customer

This book is a delight - the author combines serious economic and political analysis with rich knowledge of institutions and history on the Korean peninsula. Moreover, he knows how to write. He makes sophisticated arguments seem easy. For readers concerned with the future of South and North Korea, this is essential reading.

The book consists of a thorough overview of the current situation on the peninsula with a brief but insightful review of the historical processes that have brought us to this point. It distills in a accessible manner the vital insights from the author's formal models of the Korean economy. Most importantly, it weaves all of these different viewpoints into a coherent and persuasive story.

24 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars this book will become the basic reference..., October 23, 2000

By	Mina Park (Arlington, VA) - See all my reviews

All of us have a few books that we keep near our desks as basic reference. This is just that kind of book. It is a comprehensive overview of political, economic, and security developments on the peninsula today. It is carefully argued and copiously researched. Excellent index.