How Hits Happen: Forecasting Predictability in a Chaotic Marketplace (Hardcover)

by Winslow Farrell (Author)

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review
How is it that certain sites become the superstars of the World Wide Web? What makes Internet-based stores and services, such as America Online, burst into public consciousness? The process is the same, Farrell explains, as that which took Hootie and the Blowfish from bar band to supergroup at record speed or made Beanie Babies the national craze.

Farrell shows how social interactions create hits, both online and off. Better yet, he demonstrates how computer models are using the mathematics of complexity theory to help predict the hit or flop potential of new ideas, products, and services. What makes the models so fascinating is that they behave as groups of individual consumers, running in simulated communities inside the computer, approximating the reactions of their flesh-and-blood counterparts.

While the principles here apply to the entire world of business, they are particularly essential for those who wish to create an audience or customer base on the Internet, where the hit-creating (and preventing) forces seem to be particularly volatile. And while Farrell makes it clear that hits cannot be manufactured on demand, he is able to provide good advice on tactics, which can swing the odds more in your favor. --Elizabeth Lewis

Review
"A mind-bending exploration of the nonlinear dynamics of fads, fashions, and high-tech markets. If you are contemplating creating new markets in this world of increasing return economics, read this provocative book." -- John Seely Brown, Chief Scientist, Xerox Corporation, and Director, Xerox Palo Alto Research Center

"How Hits Happen is a lively and eminently practical condensation of the complexity sciences and their implications for product and marketing innovation. Farrell dispells old myths and delivers a wealth of new ideas that will forever change the way you think about how hits happen." -- Paul Saffo, Director, Institute for the Future

"Since everyone wants a hit, this knowledgeable primer on applying the new sciences of complexity could become pretty popular. I hope so -- not because the world needs more subtly engineered hits, but because complex adaptive systems are where and how we live, and understanding helps." -- Stewart Brand, Director, Global Business Network

"[How Hits Happen] is clear and readable. It is entertaining. And it is the best book I have seen yet on what the new ideas of complexity theory have to do with the concerns of business." -- W. Brian Arthur, Santa Fe Institute

See all Editorial Reviews

Product Details

• Hardcover: 256 pages
• Publisher: HarperBusiness; 1st edition (June 3, 1998)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0887309070
• ISBN-13: 978-0887309076
• Product Dimensions: 6.7 x 4.4 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 7.2 ounces
• Average Customer Review: 3.1 out of 5 stars See all reviews (19 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #2,228,520 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

8 of 8 people found the following review helpful:

2.0 out of 5 stars Don't how how to use the lesson, December 11, 1999

By	j4u (Taipei Taiwan) - See all my reviews

Overall I didn't find many new lessons and I didn't know how to use the lesson I got in the book.

The biggest lesson I got is a new approach of complexity model to predict a market success. Is it a brand new lesson? Well, not exactly. We all learnt some 'critical mass' and 'networking effect' in business strategy course. However, it does arouse my interest and that's why I bought it. Yet as I read through the book, I found the author provided many examples to prove that complexity model/non-linear model is an appropriate one to predict a hit. But the problem is I already buy-in the theory before I bought the book. What I really want is a method or some tips that I can use in my everyday work. However, I didn't find it. The book did mention some computer simulation program; however, I don't know the program and I don't have the program.

Net, I found this book could be a good introductory book on complexity in business world. Yet recommend 'not to buy' for business managers who need direct applications on their everyday business.

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars New tools for winning in the New Economy, June 9, 1998

By	[e-mail] (San Jose, CA) - See all my reviews

In "How Hits Happen", Winslow Farrell provides what will be for many managers a first glimpse at how market leaders will be thinking in the post-linear world of the new economy. Farrell clearly shows that the current extrapolative, generalizing, top-down, spreadsheet-oriented view of the world is becoming an increasingly distorted lens for viewing markets and what drives them. Powerful, creative successes are nonlinear, arising seemingly spontaneously from the relatively simple interaction of large numbers of independently acting and communicating people.

The relevance of this book goes far beyond the entertainment industry from which it draws its examples-hits are an emergent phenomenon in every market. Farrell provides numerous examples of what happens when markets catch fire, when the "buzz" surrounding a product travels like a contagion through the network of relationships in a population, fanning out from the "in" crowd to the rest of us.

"How Hits Happen" is the bottom-up counterpoint to Geoffrey Moore's "Crossing the Chasm", the hit marketing manifesto for the high tech community that has become the default worldview in Silicon Valley. Moore described how new product adoption is driven by influencers, in a trickle-down process between distinct segments of a market-- segments separated by gaps and chasms. Farrell draws on the fascinating and relevant tools of complexity theory and multi-agent simulation to show *how* influence works, *why* there are gaps and chasms, and that managers can adaptively interact with markets to recognize hit potential. Perhaps the most important lesson is that we can add "energy" at the right place and the right time to help turn product potential into phenomenal success.

But be forewarned-- the book leaves a number of questions unanswered. Such as "What are the warning signs of an impending hit?", "How do we adapt to emergent market behavior to fan the flames?", and "When and at what level should action be taken?" Farrell and his team at Coopers ! & Lybrand are on to something big, pioneering the application of complex adaptive systems, artificial life, and simulation to real-world businesses. Neatly wrapped answers are lacking only because these are the early days, and much lies waiting to be discovered.

Despite the high ratio of description to prescription, I encourage anyone interested in why products like Barbie, VHS and Windows win in the market to read this book. This is exciting territory-- the forces have been set into motion for a dramatic shift in business thinking.

--Ken Karakotsios Author of "SimLife" software, co-founder & CEO of Salamander Interactive

4 of 5 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Shed a light on new way to analyze market., August 30, 1999

By A Customer

I have read this book and I think the author has revealed us future of how we will analyze the market. We have seen many hits and flops over the years. Some hits were expected and started with much fanfare while other came out of no where. I don't think there has been any systematic approach to how this kind of hit happens. All analysis has been 20-20 hindsight. In this book, the author proposes a new way of study how hit happens, not by looking from top to bottom but from bottom to top by using computer model that stimulates the real world. I think his idea is breakthrough in marketing research and new way of using computer simulation to solve mysteries of hits. One problem, I have with this book is that while I understand this book's purpose is not to delve into technical aspect of computer model, I wish he explain a bit more. I am curious about how to construct adaptive agent. Not to the detail of building one but to understand if there are some flaws. After all building any model to simulate the real world is not easy.