Review
"The Coming Oil Crisis" is magnificent. I think it is the most powerful resource we have thus far. It is a wonderful mix of fact and compassion, and the odd excursion into autobiography adds to, rather than detracts from, its authority, and makes it that much more understandable. --
C.Richardson, Central Sydney Community Transport Group, AustraliaIf ever the precisely appropriate book turned up at exactly the opportune moment, this is it. During 1997, an academic debate of immense significance for the future of civilization began to surface in a remarkably diverse array of media. The debate concerns the question, is there enough crude oil left in the world to get us to 2010 without a historically unprecedented discontinuity. The whole character of society in the 20th Century, and of its history, economics and politics is more a product of oil than of any other factor.
Campbell's book is the most interdisciplinary and broadly informed book available on a wide range of these issues. He has about four decades of experience in every aspect of the oil business, from finding the stuff in the field, to analysis, management, finance and consulting. It simply drips with honesty, frankness, realism and wisdom. He penetrates the maze of conflicting information and disinformation, as well as imprecise and confusing definitions, noting that there are colossal vested interests with motives to distort and confuse: oil is money and money is power. Campbell does not pretend that he knows what will happen but gives us a range of plausible scenarios. These events will produce a major change in thinking and our perceptions of reality. Campbell notes linkages between all kinds of systems components: for example, the politics of the Middle East. The book is very well written. It is replete with tables, discussions of the principal personalities in this issue area, and organized tables of explanation of important concepts and terms. Was this a welcome breath of fresh air ! -- W.J.George,Petroleum Economist, London
The crucial question which Campbell addresses in his book is how much oil remains to be found and for how long global oil resources can continue to support the expected growth in demand. Having access to Petroconsultants' extensive database, he has carried out a detailed and comprehensive analysis of historical production data and of the Earth's ultimate oil potential. His estimate of the ultimate oil reserves is 1800 billion barrels of which 1600 billion barrels have been discovered, and he predicts that there are only a further 200 billion barrels yet to be found. His most crucial pronouncement however, is that once the global mid-point of depletion has been reached, production rate will decline. Given current production rates, the mid-point corresponding to peak production, will be reached some time in the first decade of the new millennium. Based on this conclusion, Campbell examines three scenarios and offers some interesting insights into the possible consequences to a world having to adjust to a dwindling oil supply. Adding say 500 billion to the ultimate reserves estimate merely delays the mid-point by a decade: an understanding of this vital issue is thus already overdue. I believe most people will enjoy the semi-autobiographical style of this book: it is engagingly readable and delivers its message in very clear terms. Despite the use of the latest analytical techniques, even including state of the art parabolic fractals, the author has been able to present a complex subject involving the interaction of geology, economics, corporate, social and geopolitical issues in a language easily understood by the layman. In addition, the relevance of the 150 year history and evolution of the oil industry is recognized and discussed. Campbell's book is both provocative and challenging, and contains several radical ideas that need to be debated and tested. For anyone interested in this fascinating and far-reaching subject, whether professionally or otherwise, this book is essential reading. -- Professor K.E.F Watt, University of California, Davis, U.S.A.
Product Description
The history and current status of the important oil industry are reviewed in this study of the geological origins of oil and gas. Assessed are how much oil and gas has been produced, what remains in known fields, and what is yet to be found, with attention to how to properly interpret published numbers, many of which are false or distorted by vested interests. The contention is made that the growing Middle East control of the market is likely to lead to a radical and permanent increase in the price of oil before physical shortages begin to appear within the first decade of the 21st century. The book further argues that the coming oil crisis will create economic and political discontinuity of historic proportions, as the world adjusts to a new energy environment.
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by C. J. Campbell
by Kenneth S. Deffeyes
