The Coming Oil Crisis (Paperback)

~ C. J. Campbell (Author)

Editorial Reviews

Review

"The Coming Oil Crisis" is magnificent. I think it is the most powerful resource we have thus far. It is a wonderful mix of fact and compassion, and the odd excursion into autobiography adds to, rather than detracts from, its authority, and makes it that much more understandable. -- C.Richardson, Central Sydney Community Transport Group, Australia

If ever the precisely appropriate book turned up at exactly the opportune moment, this is it. During 1997, an academic debate of immense significance for the future of civilization began to surface in a remarkably diverse array of media. The debate concerns the question, is there enough crude oil left in the world to get us to 2010 without a historically unprecedented discontinuity. The whole character of society in the 20th Century, and of its history, economics and politics is more a product of oil than of any other factor.

Campbell's book is the most interdisciplinary and broadly informed book available on a wide range of these issues. He has about four decades of experience in every aspect of the oil business, from finding the stuff in the field, to analysis, management, finance and consulting. It simply drips with honesty, frankness, realism and wisdom. He penetrates the maze of conflicting information and disinformation, as well as imprecise and confusing definitions, noting that there are colossal vested interests with motives to distort and confuse: oil is money and money is power. Campbell does not pretend that he knows what will happen but gives us a range of plausible scenarios. These events will produce a major change in thinking and our perceptions of reality. Campbell notes linkages between all kinds of systems components: for example, the politics of the Middle East. The book is very well written. It is replete with tables, discussions of the principal personalities in this issue area, and organized tables of explanation of important concepts and terms. Was this a welcome breath of fresh air ! -- W.J.George,Petroleum Economist, London

The crucial question which Campbell addresses in his book is how much oil remains to be found and for how long global oil resources can continue to support the expected growth in demand. Having access to Petroconsultants' extensive database, he has carried out a detailed and comprehensive analysis of historical production data and of the Earth's ultimate oil potential. His estimate of the ultimate oil reserves is 1800 billion barrels of which 1600 billion barrels have been discovered, and he predicts that there are only a further 200 billion barrels yet to be found. His most crucial pronouncement however, is that once the global mid-point of depletion has been reached, production rate will decline. Given current production rates, the mid-point corresponding to peak production, will be reached some time in the first decade of the new millennium. Based on this conclusion, Campbell examines three scenarios and offers some interesting insights into the possible consequences to a world having to adjust to a dwindling oil supply. Adding say 500 billion to the ultimate reserves estimate merely delays the mid-point by a decade: an understanding of this vital issue is thus already overdue. I believe most people will enjoy the semi-autobiographical style of this book: it is engagingly readable and delivers its message in very clear terms. Despite the use of the latest analytical techniques, even including state of the art parabolic fractals, the author has been able to present a complex subject involving the interaction of geology, economics, corporate, social and geopolitical issues in a language easily understood by the layman. In addition, the relevance of the 150 year history and evolution of the oil industry is recognized and discussed. Campbell's book is both provocative and challenging, and contains several radical ideas that need to be debated and tested. For anyone interested in this fascinating and far-reaching subject, whether professionally or otherwise, this book is essential reading. -- Professor K.E.F Watt, University of California, Davis, U.S.A.

Product Description

The history and current status of the important oil industry are reviewed in this study of the geological origins of oil and gas. Assessed are how much oil and gas has been produced, what remains in known fields, and what is yet to be found, with attention to how to properly interpret published numbers, many of which are false or distorted by vested interests. The contention is made that the growing Middle East control of the market is likely to lead to a radical and permanent increase in the price of oil before physical shortages begin to appear within the first decade of the 21st century. The book further argues that the coming oil crisis will create economic and political discontinuity of historic proportions, as the world adjusts to a new energy environment.

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Product Details

• Paperback: 210 pages
• Publisher: Multi-Science Publishing Co. Ltd. (April 1, 2004)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0906085225
• ISBN-13: 978-0906522110
• ASIN: 0906522110
• Product Dimensions: 11.6 x 8.2 x 0.4 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.6 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (10 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #846,225 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

57 of 59 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars Beware of Publication Year, September 3, 2004

By	Earth Reader - See all my reviews

I purchased this book with the understanding that it was published in 2004 (as it was mentioned on amazon.com), but it is the same 1998 publication!

26 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Very comprehensive, February 22, 2000

By	Alan Mayer (Australia) - See all my reviews

The book is based on total cumulative oil production of 1800 billion barrels with peak global production at aprox 10,000,000,000 litres per day in 2001 with a plateau until 2008 and declining until aprox 2100.

Large cities and energy intensive industries such as mining, aircraft, shipping and railways will bear the brunt of declining world oil production from present day global usage of 10,000,000,000 litres per day, declining to around 1,000,000 litres /day in 2080.

The book has extensive production profiles for many regions, but not Australia. It illustrates how Germany's oil production has been in decline from 0.058 Gb/a since the mid 1960's and US oil production has been in decline since the early 1970's peaking at around 9500 kb / day.

An extensive web site is discussed regarding renewable energy.

The rise in human population from 1 billion to 6 billion over the last 100 years is also discussed and the author predicts a decline in human population with declining oil production.

There is a brief discussion in regards to how the temperature rises 33 to 36 deg C for every km decrease in depth and how oil is subsequently cracked into gas at high temperatures, however it doesn't mention at what pressures the cracking would take place or if there is any difference in temperature between 4 km below sea level or 4 km below land.

The book rarely discusses synthetic fertilisers, such as sulphate of ammonia, which need oil or gas as a feedstock to fix nitrogen, etc. Brian Fleays book "The decline of the age of oil" discusses this in greater depth.

There is no discussion of the chemicals that are made from oil such as: Acetylene, rubber, explosives, insecticides, soaps, cosmetics, chewing gum wax, carbon brushes, etc which can be found in an encyclopedia.

However, the book is a very comprehensive discussion of the search for oil and the geological constraints of production.

25 of 26 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A fascinating book, October 9, 2003

By	Bardi Ugo (Firenze, Italy) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

This is a fascinating book, one that dares to go to examine the very core of the mechanisms which make our society function. Our way of life depends on fossil fuels for about 90% of all the energy we produce. Without oil and the other fossils, the planet would never been able to support 6 billion human beings, to say nothing of the extravagant lifestyle of the fraction of them living in "rich" countries.

Campbell's book is an attempt to foresee how long this bonanza can last. The uncertainties in the field are enormous, already the estimates in the amount of "recoverable resources" vary of almost a factor of two depending on who is doing the estimate. Then, there comes the need to estimate the rate of consumption which, in turn depends on complex and economical factors. Nevertheless, reason can guide us to determine that in no case we can expect more than a few decades (at most) of oil abundance. It is time to think seriously of alternatives.

Campbell's book is written by one of the foremost experts in the field, it is well balanced, entertaining, and overall fascinating. Highly recommended!