Turning Numbers into Knowledge: Mastering the Art of Problem Solving [ILLUSTRATED] (Hardcover)

by Jonathan G. Koomey (Author)
Key Phrases: assess their analysis, refinery acquisition cost, tax collection data, Cycle of Action, World Wide Web, Census Bureau (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Review
"As information becomes ever cheaper, Dr. Koomey's book becomes ever more valuable. Masterful!" -- Erik Brynjolfsson, professor, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

A great tool for improving your own use of numbers AND for seeing through the smoke screens of others. -- Lee Schipper, Ph.D., Senior Scientist, International Energy Agency

Here at last is the definitive guide for beating information overload. This remarkable book will empower both professionals and neophytes. -- Professor John Harte, Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley

This book is a terrific resource for students, and an essential aid for researchers, from undergraduates on up. Required reading! -- Professor Eban Goodstein, Department of Economics, Lewis and Clark College

This splendidly clear and concise introduction to the craft should be a foundation of every student's apprenticeship. -- Amory B. Lovins, Co-CEO (Research), Rocky Mountain Institute

Review

"There is nothing else like this book out there. Nobody who deals with problems where numbers matter — and everybody in today’s world really needs to — should be without it."  —John P. Holdren, past president, American Association for the Advancement of Science, from the Foreword

"A lively, well-written, attractively packaged book on the art of critical thinking."  —Skeptical Inquirer

"Dr. Koomey's book deserves to be widely read and shared, especially by those who take seriously the fragile yet critical role of an informed citizenry in increasingly complex democratic societies."  —Professor Michael Maniates, Allegheny College

--This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 221 pages
• Publisher: Analytics Press; 1st edition (April 1, 2003)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 0970601905
• ISBN-13: 978-0970601902
• Product Dimensions: 10 x 7 x 0.9 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.5 out of 5 stars See all reviews (26 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #664,267 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

67 of 68 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Zen and the Art of Statistical Analysis, November 30, 2001

By	Paul Preuss (Sausalito, CA USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

In his role as leader of the End-Use Forecasting Group in the Environmental Energy Technologies Division of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Jonathan Koomey is professionally concerned with using numbers from many different sources to gain knowledge about where markets for energy-efficient technologies may be headed. It's an approach called quantitative problem solving.

"Although the technical aspects of this process are taught at many universities, the art of problem solving is rarely discussed and even more rarely written down," Koomey notes in the preface. His goal is to amend that lack, helping the reader "to become a first-rate analyst in your chosen field."

"Your chosen field" covers a lot of ground, and while the book delivers on Koomey's promise, much of the pleasure of reading it comes from his eccentric definition of both his topic and his audience. Not a textbook -- or not just a textbook -- "Turning Numbers into Knowledge" is aimed at students and professors alike; at problem solvers in business, government, and research; at middle managers and potential investors; and even at journalists.

Beginning with a chapter titled "Beginner's Mind" and including others titled "Question Authority" and "Reflect," one might think Koomey's book could have been named "Zen and the Art of Statistical Analysis." But it's also full of technical advice, in chapters like "Let Tables and Graphs Do the Work," "Use the Internet," and many more.

In fact Koomey has organized his topics thoughtfully, beginning with considerations of why anyone, professional or amateur, would undertake quantitative analysis. Koomey's bottom-line answer is that it helps us manage a runaway information explosion, which otherwise can lead to paralysis through overload or the opposite, a refusal to learn anything new. He then moves on to the mental preparation needed for problem solving, consideration of common pitfalls, critical thinking, and finally to nitty-gritty techniques.

In the first chapter, "Beginner's Mind," Koomey reminds the reader that "experience is a two-edged sword. It eliminates unnecessary detail," but it can also "lead you astray when a new problem is sufficiently outside your experience." What's needed, he says, is a combination of curiosity -- the nonjudgmental observation of the beginner -- with the experience of a senior analyst.

He makes his point with Bruce Lee's amusing parable of the Zen master and the Western university professor who came to inquire about Zen but never stopped talking about what he already knew. During a pause in the monologue, the master suggested tea. He poured his visitor's cup full and kept on pouring and pouring until finally the professor protested: "No more will go in!" Noting that professor's mind was like his tea cup, the master asked "How can I show you Zen unless you empty your cup?"

Later, in the chapter "Question Authority," Koomey allows that sometimes following authority is essential -- in military maneuvers, for example -- but that most life situations aren't like that. Appeals to anonymous authority are immediately suspect; so are expert pronouncements by experts in an unrelated field, or those with a vested interest in the outcome. Koomey cites the "expert" testimony of researchers funded by tobacco companies who found no evidence that smoking had adverse health effects. He warns that while information on the internet is particularly susceptible to a lack of institutional validity, "any source can propagate nonsense."

In an exercise from a subsequent chapter, "How guesses become facts," Koomey suggests that the reader "Find an official statistic that sounds plausible and explore its origins. Do you still find it plausible after you've investigated?" It's an exercise Koomey himself has undertaken more than once, notably with the 1998 claim that the internet was consuming eight percent of total U.S. electricity production and was well on its way to consuming half. Koomey discovered that the numbers were based on bad measurements, bad assumptions, and outright guesses -- none of which prevented them from becoming enshrined as fact before Koomey's team did their best to set things straight.

In summing up, Koomey lists a dozen lessons to remember, among them "Don't be intimidated," "Get organized," "Document, document, document," and "Remember that others don't care as much about your work as you do" -- an invitation to know and persuade one's audience. It's sound advice, cheerfully and colorfully delivered by a man who knows what he's talking about, and of value to all sorts of readers -- whether or not they intend to ever crunch a single number.

87 of 90 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Among the most influential books I've read, May 13, 2002

By	Mike Tarrani "www.tarrani.com" (Deltona, FL USA) - See all my reviews (TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)    (COMMUNITY FORUM 04)

I was expecting a book about quantitative methods and advanced problem solving techniques. What I got, instead, was a book that didn't even discuss numbers until page 111 of a 221 page book, and it was lite on problem solving techniques. Although it was not what I expected it turned out to be one of those rare books that deeply influences and provides fresh perspectives. The book led me on a journey that broke the process of critical thinking into manageable steps. Among the things I learned were:

* Examine key factors, such as information, attention and action within the context of a cycle of actions that begins with goals, and moves through execution, how events in the external world influence the meeting of those goals, an evaluation and refinement of goals. Then the process starts anew.

* Structured methods for getting organized. The techniques given are simple, yet powerful.How to collect and critically analyze data and information, common fallacies and how to spot them. Two of my favorite parts that reinforce these are then single-page chart titled "What Scientists Say, and What They Mean", and Chapter 20 (Uncertainty Principle and the Mass Media).

* The straightforward process of numerical analysis, using relatively simple math techniques to make sense of numbers and turn them into knowledge, is priceless. What makes this part of the book valuable is that the author integrates the preceding chapters that lead you to a critical thinking mindset with common sense and techniques that are within the grasp of high school students. It looks easy, but is testimony to the author's exceptional ability to communicate and inspire.

Overall this book is one of my personal favorites and one that I recommend to colleagues. Another book that complements this one nicely is Systems Thinking: Managing Chaos and Complexity by Jamshid Gharajedaghi.

29 of 32 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Great treatise on critical thinking and organization, December 17, 2002

By	Harold McFarland (Florida) - See all my reviews (TOP 50 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

"Turning Numbers Into Knowledge: Mastering the Art of Problem Solving" should be required reading for anyone engaged in producing, reading, or analysing information. Based on the title one might assume that I mean numerical information, but that is not the case at all. The basic principles, such as how to sift through information and the importance of documentation of sources, are important parts of any information product. In fact, except for the sections on graphs, tables, normalizing data and a few others, the rest of the book (fully at least three quarters of it) is dedicated to determining what constitutes good information, good techniques, good analysis, good documentation, etc. This is a book on problem solving techniques and analysis of the information products of others.

Filled with useful tools and tips for problem solving under real-life situations it is one of the most useful books available. "Turning Numbers Into Knowledge: Mastering the Art of Problem Solving" is a masterful work in the area of critical analysis and a highly recommended read for anyone involved in creating or using information of any kind.