Countdown to Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran (Hardcover)

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Editorial Reviews

From The Washington Post

Another day, another outpost of tyranny. With Saddam Hussein gone and Iraq locked in a tragic pattern of violence and disorder, the insta-book authors have set their sights on new targets. Even a cursory appraisal of the new offerings at local bookstores reveals a spate of books with alarmist titles and tantalizing claims regarding the remaining members of what President Bush famously called "the axis of evil." Kenneth R. Timmerman's profoundly deficient new book, Countdown to Crisis, falls squarely into this hyperventilating genre, making claims it can neither substantiate nor justify.

On the surface, Iran offers plenty of grist for sensationalist ideologues: a hard-line president-elect, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, pledging to turn back the clock to the days of fervor that followed the country's 1979 Islamist revolution; a nuclear program that shows every sign of aiming to provide Iran's ruling theocracy with the bomb; and a long history of association with terrorist organizations, above all the notorious and skillful Hezbollah. But Iran is also home to one of the most sophisticated civil societies in the Middle East, a uniquely pro-American population and a divided ruling class wrestling with pressing economic and demographic problems. All this makes a judicious and tempered analysis of Iran all the more important. Alas, such sensible examination, capturing the subtleties of Iran today, is not to be found in Countdown to Crisis.

Timmerman's thesis is simplistic and provocative: Iran is America's most militant, relentless enemy and has been involved in nearly every terrorist attack against the United States since 1979. Iran is also actively seeking the bomb -- not for deterrence, but to menace the United States and its allies. After all, as the author suggests, "Only one Iranian nuclear-tipped missile needs to penetrate Israel's Arrow antimissile defenses to devastate Israel's highly concentrated population, destroy its economy, and effectively smash the state. Israel is a 'one-bomb' country and the Iranians know it." Timmerman dismisses any challenge to such claims as evidence of the pusillanimous nature of the U.S. intelligence services, the fecklessness of American politicians and, of course, the crass inclination of European appeasers to subordinate principle to commercial gain.

Timmerman, the author of earlier books attacking France and Jesse Jackson, begins his book with the outlandish claim that Iran was complicit in the Sept. 11, 2001, atrocities. In his retelling of history, a craven CIA, determined to exonerate rogue states that sponsor terrorism, has deliberately withheld this information from the American public. The conclusions of the numerous congressional investigations and journalistic inquiries into Sept. 11 are simply ignored. The one independent examination that Timmerman does cite, the 9/11 Commission, is faulted for missing what he considers the all-too-apparent Iran link. The reader gets the impression that Timmerman would rather not bother with facts precisely because they undermine his conspiracy theory.

A persistent problem with this book is its absence of credible evidence. Timmerman frequently describes meetings between Iran's most senior officials, complete with dialogue, facial expressions and body language -- all without any attribution. For instance, in one curious scene, Timmerman describes a late 2004 meeting between Iran's Revolutionary Guard commanders, an important hard-line ayatollah named Ahmad Jannati, and al Qaeda's number-two leader, Ayman Zawahiri. For good measure, he adds (in omniscient voice) that Osama bin Laden himself joined a second day of meetings in which Jannati and the al Qaeda leader -- who looked "frail and old" and "wore Iranian clerical robes," not Arab ones -- "discussed different places where bin Laden felt his men could launch spectacular new attacks against the United States and its key allies."

It behooves Timmerman to provide at least some sources for such eyebrow-raising claims; he attributes them only to "sources with direct knowledge of these meetings," whatever that means. To the extent that the author proffers any foundation for his theories, he appears to rely on exiles with tall tales and defectors with wild imaginations. The war with Iraq, premised on its nonexistent doomsday arsenal and nonexistent working relationship with al Qaeda, has vividly demonstrated where that can lead.

Beyond Timmerman's preposterous claim that Iran plotted the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, the remainder of the book merely chronicles events already familiar to most observers. A pedestrian review of Iran's sordid involvement in terrorism and its pattern of clandestine nuclear activities, all sufficiently hyped to fit the book's ideological assumptions, passes here for analysis. The jumbled narrative lacks coherence and structure as the author shifts from topic to topic without evident connection. He jumps without segue from deliberations within the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran's nuclear portfolio to purported meetings between bin Laden's henchmen and high-ranking Iranian officials to Iranian attempts to stoke the Iraqi insurgency (a largely Sunni revolt for which Shiite Iran is, naturally, blamed).

In the end, Timmerman does not even possess the courage of his own convictions. If Iran indeed plotted the Sept. 11 attacks, is eagerly sustaining Iraqi insurgents who are killing American soldiers and is developing nuclear weapons in order to subvert U.S. interests, then it should indeed be a candidate for President Bush's doctrine of preventive invasion. But Timmerman's proposed solution to the grave, imminent threat he portrays is merely further organizational assistance to the country's increasingly battered pro-democracy activists. Given that Iran's genuinely democratic reformers, such as the 2003 Nobel Peace Prize winner, Shirin Ebadi, and the political prisoner Akbar Ganji, abjure such aid from America, it is hard to see how such a strategy could work.

At a time when the United States has already invaded one Middle Eastern country based on exaggerated claims about the dangers it posed, one would hope that pundits and policymakers alike would have absorbed some basic lessons. Foremost among these is the maxim that both analysis and policy pronouncements should be restrained by evidence. But all too often, authors such as Timmerman and Jerome R. Corsi (who wrote the similarly irresponsible Atomic Iran: How the Terrorist Regime Bought the Bomb and American Politicians) present their ideology as self-evident verity and their assumptions as incontrovertible facts. The reality remains that Iran does present serious challenges to American interests; a quarter-century after the Iranian Revolution ruptured U.S.-Iranian relations, the United States is still profoundly ill-equipped to understand Iran, much less effectively address those challenges. Unfortunately, Countdown to Crisis only highlights how little we know about such an important country -- and the paralyzing effects of ideological dogma.

Reviewed by Ray Takeyh
Copyright 2005, The Washington Post Co. All Rights Reserved.

Review

“Ken Timmerman delivers another blockbuster, this time on Iran and its clandestine nuclear program. Few things are more relevant to today’s world than what happens in the Middle East—especially in Iran, a major player in the ‘axis of evil.’ Read this book, be warned, and then equip yourself for battle.” —Cal Thomas, nationally syndicated columnist

“With so many amateur intelligence experts clouding the public dialogue, it is a pleasure to read the work of an author of real professionalism. Timmerman adds texture and clarity to the gross failures of our intelligence establishment and new visibility to the role of Iran in the Islamist war against America.” —John f. Lehman, 9/11 Commission member and former Secretary of the Navy

"Writer drops bombshells about Iran's shell game. Investigative reporter Kenneth Timmerman has been mulling over Iranian mullahs for more than two decades while covering the Byzantine world of Middle Eastern politics, terrorism and weapons proliferation. In Countdown to Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran,he produces the first-ever inside account of Iran's clandestine nuclear program.

Utilizing contacts with dozens of Iranian defectors and officials, previously classified documents, and high-level sources throughout the government and intelligence community, the New York Times best-selling author pulls the Persian rug out from the Iranian clerics who have been mobilizing to kill during four U.S. presidential administrations. Readers alarmed by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's recent call for the annihilation of Israel will take no comfort in Timmerman's electrifying book." —Indianapolis Star

"Ken Timmerman’s book, Countdown to Crisis, should be required reading for all the neo Neville Chamberlains at the State Department, National Security Council, or elsewhere in the Bush Administrat... --This text refers to the Kindle Edition edition.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 400 pages
• Publisher: Crown Forum (June 14, 2005)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1400053684
• ISBN-13: 978-1400053681
• Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6.5 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.1 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (35 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #731,503 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

69 of 85 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Multiple sources , June 24, 2005

By	J Michael Waller "www.iwp.edu" (Washington, DC United States) - See all my reviews

This is the most compelling book on Iran to date. Author Kenneth Timmerman was watching Iran's nuclear program before most journalists and policymakers believed it was a problem. Nobody has matched the methodology of the author, an investigative journalist whose tradecraft is every bit as thorough as an old-school intelligence officer. That methodology is what makes Countdown to Crisis so important. Timmerman didn't build his powerful story on electronic searches, a data dump from a government agency, leaks from disgruntled officials or the testimony of a defector or two. He didn't write it in response to the crisis du jour. This book is the product of years of careful and patient work with multiple sources, including an array of defectors whom the author debriefed repeatedly in face-to-face encountered. Timmerman risked his life in forsaken corners of the world to draw out unmatched facts and insights about Iran's nuclear weapons program. He saw the danger before it arrived. Now it's here. And he has the story.

97 of 124 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars A Persian Carpet Of Lies , June 19, 2005

By	John G. Hilliard (Toronto Canada) - See all my reviews (TOP 500 REVIEWER)    (REAL NAME)

It seems that the current non fiction environment lends its self to high drama works that, regardless of subject manner, all lead in the direction that the issue covered in the book is the most import of issue to be dealt with over the next so many years. This author also has a history of putting out books that seem to have a rather close relationship to the conservative issue of the day. So given this was my bias coming into this book you would think I would have nothing but negative comments, I assumed the same. The fact is the book is an enjoyable and interesting read. The author details out the growing issue that another Middle Eastern country is working to gain a nuclear weapon and what it might mean to us.

As much as it might pain me to say this, I agree with many of the authors claims. There is no other country today that has so openly and brazenly supported terror in the Middle East. Iran is a country that is working to gain more influence in the Middle East with hopes of becoming the leader of a Soviet Union style dictatorship over the Middle East to bring back the glory of the great Persian empire of the past. The leaders of the country are pursing a goal of the total destruction of Israel and a subjugation of the rest of us. The book talks abut the many missed opportunities and missteps that have lead us to this point and gives the reasons why we are going to be dealing with them in an adversarial relationship for many years to come.

Overall I really enjoyed the book. All over hype and drama aside, the author details out a threat to us as Americans if for no other reason then Iran is a country focused on objectives that a detrimental to our own and they happen to be in the most sensitive location on the planet today. I had to put aside my bias toward the author and in doing so I came away the better.

24 of 29 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Every allegation is founded in documentation, every revelation is backed by evidence, November 13, 2005

By	Midwest Book Review (Oregon, WI USA) - See all my reviews

Countdown To Crisis: The Coming Nuclear Showdown With Iran by investigative reporter and Middle East expert Ken Timmerman documents how the American intelligence community's arrogance, incompetence, and willful blindness have repeatedly kept us from dealing effectively or successfully with the Iranian nuclear threat. Countdown To Crisis reveals that the Iranian mullahs could already have enough nuclear material for 20 to 25 bombs; secret locations where Iran had been sheltering Osma bin Laden and Al-Qaeda forces who are collaborating with the Iranians to plain attacks against American and our allies; Iran's involvement in the 9/11 plot (including documents the CIA tried to withhold from the 9/11 Commission); an insider's account of how top Iranian leaders negotiated directly with North Korea's "Supreme Leader" to secure nuclear weapons assistance, and so much more. Every allegation is founded in documentation, every revelation is backed by evidence. Countdown To Crisis needs the widest possible readership it can achieve in order to end the political mismanagement that has so characterized the Bush administration's handling (and chronic mishandling) of the Iranian nuclear threat, the Iranian participation in global terrorism, and the brutality of the Iranian mullahs.