The Underdog Theorem: How to Bet on the NFL and Win While Outperforming Wall Street (Paperback)

~ Eddie Getz (Author)
Key Phrases: statistical dependence, winless teams, vig amounts, Underdog Theorem, Point Spread, Teams Start (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Product Description

Celebrating 15 years of outperforming Wall Street, The Underdog Theorem introduces an incredible idea and demonstrates its success. Chicago, Denver, Indianapolis, and now New England, couldn't match Miami's feat of 1972. This failure by these great teams highlights a tremendous opportunity overlooked by every sports fan. Readers of The Underdog Theorem will never view an NFL season the same way again.

Written for the sports gambler and non-sports gambler alike, The Underdog Theorem presents specific, straightforward steps that can be used to predict events of every NFL season, explains how easy it is to repeat these steps year after year, and provides proof of the strategy's success by listing every pick of the past 15 seasons. Other gambling books tell you about a strategy knowing that the roll of the dice or the deal of the cards can never be repeated, which frees the authors from ever being proved wrong (or right). There is only one NFL to bet on, only one outcome to every game, and only one Underdog Theorem.

Product Details

• Paperback: 222 pages
• Publisher: CreateSpace Publishing (March 21, 2008)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1434895963
• ISBN-13: 978-1434895967
• Product Dimensions: 9 x 6 x 0.8 inches
• Shipping Weight: 12.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #1,319,858 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Innovative approach to NFL betting, June 29, 2008

By	Sam Hendricks "Author of Fantasy Football Gui... (Virginia USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

Eddie Getz just gave NFL bettors a book that will no doubt improve their overall chance of success. He explains in detail how the NFL has changed in recent years and why because of this parity, a window of opportunity exists. Underdogs (not bad teams) can have a significant advantage in certain situations. The author then presents a method for capturing this advantage. Yes, he does mention the Martingale Strategy (I knew about it but not what it was called and the nuances of the strategy), but his book provides great examples of why it will not work at games like roulette and why it needs some modifications for the Underdog Theorem.

Even if you do not employ the strategy suggested, it is still a great book on its own in the examination of NFL betting. Think of it as a common sense guide to NFL betting. It will not make you a millionaire, nor does it claim to; instead use it to have fun and to be more informed when you walk into the sports betting lounge in Vegas or wager with your friends at work.

I learned many good ideas from Getz's book. Some I may have known intuitively but just needed them explained, others are quite innovative. I cannot wait to try out "The Underdog Theorem" this season.

If you bet on NFL games this book is a must read!

Sam Hendricks, author of Fantasy Football Guidebook and Fantasy Football Almanac 2008

1 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

2.0 out of 5 stars Good NFL background, poor gambling theory, May 23, 2008

By	Elihu D. Feustel "daringly" (South Bend, IN) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

The author provides a lot of interesting information about parity in the NFL - he addresses changes in the free agency rules and the impact of salary caps. Unfortunately, the gambling theory in the book is a disaster.

The author tries to incorporate two ideas for his system. The first is the concept of backing bad teams. In the past (prior to the internet betting revolution) players could do well betting every bad team (i.e. any dog getting +7.5 or more points). However, the sports betting markets have become more efficient, and this blind strategy will no longer work. Most of the author's data is from before 2002, when internet betting really began impacting the betting markets.

The second concept the author advocates is progressive betting - in this case, it is a true Martingale progression. In short, his "portfolio" requires that each successive bet on a team be enough to win "100 units" after accounting for prior losses of that team. While the author has some minor modifications to the Martingale progression, none of these modifications convince me that his system will be profitable going forward. No professional bettor would even consider a progressive betting scheme, with or without "tweaks".

If you are serious about winning at sports betting, another book to look at is "Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting" by King Yao.

0 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars "Getz's Underdog Theorem a Fresh Approach to Betting Pro Football", June 3, 2008

By	Eddie Getz (New York) - See all my reviews

Amazon Verified Purchase

Thank you for visiting my book's Amazon page. I originally posted here to reply to Elihu Feustel's 5/23 review. Please see the comments under his review for more on that, but I'm editing this space to include another perspective on my book. This review is by Howard Schwartz, the "librarian for gamblers" and marketing director at the Gambler's Book Shop in Las Vegas, the world's oldest and largest book shop dedicated to gambling. He is the author of hundreds of articles on gambling, and his weekly book reviews appear in numerous publications throughout the gaming industry. Below is his June 25, 2008 review of The Underdog Theorem, it can also be found at gamblersbook*dot*com.
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Getz's Underdog Theorem a Fresh Approach to Betting Pro Football

One of the unique and refreshing new "how-to" bet pro football books to hit the Gambler's Book Shop shelves in many a year is Eddie Getz's The Underdog Theorem: How to Bet on the NFL and Win While Outperforming Wall Street (214 pages, paper bound, $14.95). Well-priced and under-hyped, the book may be the sleeper of the year.

Getz takes a rational approach to risk-taking and betting. "You should never risk more than you can afford to lose," and examines both the upside and downside of gambling, while emphasizing that without money management all is lost in the end run. In conjunction with this approach, he finds parallels between gambling and Wall Street. (Which is the riskier or more respected venture?) Getz probes, offers examples, underlines hypocrisies and compares betting pro football vs. investing in the stock market.

This book requires more than just a fast reading. It describes more than a decade's journey as Getz gradually uncovers his theorem through hard work, examination of box scores, statistics, questioning and testing. For example, one of the questions he concentrates on concerns the debate about betting the money line versus pointspread.

Getz's work is divided in two parts and reaches back to 1993 showing his thought progression and experimentation.

The book really gets rolling in fourth chapter where he discusses NFL Parity. Getz calls it "the state of being equal" and moves quickly into Statistical Dependence -- Borrowing From Blackjack. He admits this may be the most "technical" chapter because it deals with statistical concepts such as the Gambler's Fallacy and statistical dependence. He calls the Martingale Strategy, the "best worst gambling strategy around," offers a fascinating discussion of the origins of the pointspread (a math teacher named Charles McNeil gets credit here); the spread's purpose and he examines "vig" (the bet-taker's edge).

After the detailed explanations, the book hits high gear in Chapter Nine where Getz puts his theorem to the test beginning with an important discussion on establishing a bankroll, then using the 2006 NFL season as examples of each segment of the theorem.

Well organized, The Underdog Theorem should appeal to readers involved in everything from day trading to anticipating trends in futures and long-term stock market patterns and definitely to those looking for a new approach to wagering on football. (In the final segment, Getz lists his Internet site so readers can find his theorem's latest progress and developments.)