Product Details

• Actors: Nova, David Ogden Stiers, Malcolm Clark, Alan Greenspan, Myron Scholes
• Format: Closed-captioned, Color, NTSC
• Language: English
• Rating: NR (Not Rated)
• Number of tapes: 1
• Studio: PBS
• VHS Release Date: February 29, 2000
• Run Time: 60 minutes
• Average Customer Review: 4.6 out of 5 stars See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
• ASIN: 1578072301
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #10,714 in Video (See Bestsellers in Video)

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Editorial Reviews

Product Description
In 1973, three brilliant economists, Fisher Black, Myron Scholes and Robert Merton, discovered a mathematical breakthrough that revolutionized modern finance. The elegant formula they unleashed upon the world was sparse and deceptively simple, yet it led to the creation of a mulit-trillion dollar industry. Their bold ideas earned them a Nobel Prize and attracted the elite of Wall Street.

In 1993, Scholes and Merton joined forces with John Merriweather, the legendary bond trader of Salomon Brothers. With 13 other partners, they launched a new hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management, that promised to use mathematical models to make investors tremendous amounts of money with little risk. Their money machines reaped fantastic profit, until their theories collided with reality, sending them spiraling out of control. This crisis threatened to bring markets around the world to the brink of callapse.

Join NOVA in the quest to turn finance into a science. Plus, trace the little-known history of predicting financial markets and go to work with some successful modern traders who rely on intuition, as well as on mathematical models.

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

104 of 105 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The Trillion Dollar Bet worth a bundle, December 2, 2000

By	gregory r zieren (clarksville, tn United States) - See all my reviews

In 1998 the largest ever financial collapse, the failure of Long Term Capital Management, risked pulling the world economy down with it until the Federal Reserve Board intervened and saved the day. Trillion Dollar Bet is the story of that rescue and the Nobel Prize-winning economists whose theories of hedge funds and risk management made LTCM possible. The film traces the evolution of theories of tracking the stock market by following minute variations in prices over time and the purported ability of the stock trackers to predict movement in the markets. Such a theory, if accurate, would permit investors to profit from such fluctuations at practically no risk, an exciting possibility. And for LTCM in its first years in the 1990s, the theory seemed to yield astonishing results, until the collapse of the Russian ruble in the summer of 1998 threw a monkey wrench into the works and threated the stability of stock markets around the world. This is an exciting story for those with an interest in investing and a modicum of economics background. The target audience is certainly the well informed and interested general public and not specialists. Difficult concepts are explained with crystal clarity and common sense examples. Members of the failed firm and the Nobel laureates contribute their views on the short term success and long term failure. I found myself riveted by explanations offered and the possibilities of "money for nothing." This may be the best Nova episode I have ever seen, and for an audience interested in stock markets, economics, finance and investing the film will stimulate your mind, entertain you, and make you smile at the arrogance of those who thought they had it all figured out.

39 of 39 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars "Mathematics does not drive financial markets. People do.", December 27, 2004

By	Mary Whipple (New England) - See all my reviews (TOP 50 REVIEWER)    (COMMUNITY FORUM 04)

Telling the story of Long Term Capital Management and the mathematical formula underlying its investment strategy, this NOVA special traces the development of the formula which helped to create a multi-trillion dollar industry--and its 1997 meltdown, which threatened markets around the world. In a clear presentation geared for an audience of interested novices, non-mathematicians, and financial wizards alike, NOVA explains the search for a formula which could solve the problem of risk and return in the stock market and turn financial investment into a science.

Economist Paul Samuelson in the 1950s first discovered the turn of the century work of Bachelier, a French graduate student, who posited that the development of options could protect investments against stock fluctuations. In the 1960s, Myron Scholes, Fisher Black, and Robert Merton further investigated the subject of options in an effort to discover how one could take only the upside and not the downside of options and how one might calculate the correct price of an option at any moment in time by knowing the current price of the stock. By devising a system of "dynamic hedging," they believed that they could eliminate uncertainty of movements and neutralize risk by spreading risks across individuals, financial markets, and through time. Scholes and Merton won the Nobel Prize for this pioneering work in economics, Black having died the year before the award.

When traders actually began to use this formula in financial markets, Scholes and Merton joined John Meriwether of Salomon Brothers to set up Long Term Capital Management, a company which was wildly successful until mid-1997, when two unforeseen, but ultimately crucial, events occurred--property prices plummeted in Thailand, and Russia reneged on its debt payment. LTCM continued to hedge its global investments, even as markets continued to diverge. Since LTCM stood to lose an astronomical $1.25 trillion if it collapsed, the Federal Reserve stepped in to prevent a global economic catastrophe.

Extensive interviews with Myron Scholes, Robert Merton, traders on the Chicago Board of Trade, Alan Greenspan, and others make this story come alive, offering cautionary notes about the continued use of models when unprecedented events, not included in such models, can have such profound effects on the world economy. Fascinating and thought-provoking for even the neophyte investor, this production illuminates the dictum that "Mathematics does not drive financial markets. People do." Mary Whipple

38 of 43 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Trillion Dollar Bet, November 26, 2001

By	"artbusca" (Champaign, Illinois United States) - See all my reviews

This is really a great video. If you have a passion for finance, you do have to watch it. It's an excellent opportunity to see the smartest people in the world of derivatives both "practitioners" and academics from top Universities. It is very clear and easy to understand even for those who have just entered the world of derivative evaluation using Black, Scholes and Merton formula. The opinions of all the protagonists are really inspiring and will give you a real feeling of this world, where advanced math, economics and practice are all melted together.