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2 of 3 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars
Highly recommended, May 25, 2003
This is an excellent book on the near term future of IT. It says that the next IT growth is based on customer innovation. No incremental improvements to existing or leadership in emerging markets are is likely to be sufficient to drive a major industry expansion (page xiv). The shift from supplier to customer dominated industry represents a huge cultural and business change and challenge. The emerging customer-centric era requires customer leadership, including vision, motivation, skills, and decision making capabilities. Customers must show the same level of faith and commitment than IT suppliers have provided in the past. The customer motivation is the single most important risk of the future success of IT (page 230). This is closely tied to executive attitudes towards technology (234). This also means that traditional venture capital backed start-ups will play a diminishing role in the industry. The responsibility is on the leadership of existing industries, with a relative absence of start-ups and therefore a relatively reduced role of entrepreneurs (143). "The sad thing is that so much of (this) energy flowed into a flawed industry vision ...unless the IT industry embraces some sort of shared long-term vision and direction, the use of technology could either drift aimlessly or continue to squeeze diminishing returns out of proven areas of investments" (40). Many of the key customer-centric applications have already been identified. These include music, advertisement, payments, health care, e-learning, government services, and community interaction (26). Web Services and Semantic Applications are marketed as the next big thing concepts. Web Services implement process nets with modular components. Many viable Web Services already exist, such as e-mail, credit card processing, and news feed. Web Services may lead to the emergence of new kind and more specialized service companies that provide better economies scale, or skills, or more flexibility, and may create shareholder value. This dis-integration differs from the dot-com vision - processes instead of businesses are horizontalized. On the other hand, the dot-com collapse has shown the risks of outsourcing. Semantic Applications are capable of understanding other applications. They require industry standardization, which is seen everywhere; in the joint initiatives in electronics, automotive, manufacturing, medical, chemical, and travel industries (115). The book considers e-learning as a major opportunity, and LMS (Learning Management Systems) as the last great enterprise horizontal software market, in the lucrative tradition of ERP, CRM and so on (156). Communities are still at the heart of the Internet activities. They rival and exceed those of e-business and e-learning realms (166-167). Government's role in information society is thoroughly described and evaluated (185-206). Public policy is increasingly important IT industry factor (43). Example are e-learning, online gaming, voting, identification, security, spectrum allocation, public information services, integrated government databases, antirust, regulation and tax policies, copyright and patent law (42). The best part of the book is a critical approach to the so-called horizontal business model. On a company level this model is associated with a highly focused business strategy. The belief was that there will be dominant market leaders, "gorillas", and that these leaders are start-ups that are able to replace much of the established economic order (34). The belief on this mental model and the overreliance on the PC industry mind-set was one of the main causes of the Internet bubble (28-29). History does not repeat itself. Many Internet-related businesses have no clear market leaders and have remained very competitive. A major weakness of the book is that it leaves C out of IT. It fails to recognize the importance of telecommunications or mobile industry and the convergence as the basis for the next technology-based ICT growth. On page 56, the book says "mobile systems are not going to be the dominant computing platform any time soon, and they are unlikely to fundamentally later the way businesses and other organizations are run". This becomes again evident on page 169 where the writer hints that the high international usage of mobile phones is due to the lack of voice mail or bad service and high prices by foreign telecom monopolies. This blind spot also means the lack of global perspective, because in large parts of Asia and Europe the integrated multi-media consumer electronics offerings (instead of "computers" and "software" still sold by the IT industry) of the mobile industry have already dwarfed "old" IT as the consumer supplier. I still give this book five stars. Highly recommended, but read with caution.
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