ChangeWave Investing: Picking the Next Monster Stocks of the New Economy (Hardcover)

by Tobin Smith (Author)
Key Phrases: killer value proposition, change wave, relative price, New Economy, Wall Street, Old Economy (more...)

Editorial Reviews

Amazon.com Review
Don't we all wish we could identify that next big, breakout stock and jump in before everyone else? Investment professional Tobin Smith believes he's developed a solid means to that end, and he lays it out with contagious confidence in ChangeWave Investing. His intriguing approach begins with a detailed system for identifying the most promising of future highfliers--employing protocols that, Smith writes, "delivered more than 150 percent annualized gains since 1995 and more than 430 percent gain per stock pick in 1999 alone." Smith then turbocharges this approach with what he calls "open-source investing," using the same free-flowing method of information exchange that's proven so successful in the Linux software community. Much in the way ever-tweaking programmers have continually improved Linux, Smith contends, investors can enhance his own aggressive growth-stock model.

Will it work? Investors who support Smith's contention and play along, combining his advice with their own collective expertise, should be able to upgrade the financial "source code" of New Economy, making it available to all participants.

Some of the jargon-laden process may befuddle casual investors, but serious stock watchers searching for an ambitious and original strategy with high upside (and commensurate risk, to be sure) may just want to strap on a virtual seat belt and see for themselves. --Howard Rothman

From Publishers Weekly
All that glitters may not be gold in this stock-picking guide. Although Smith identifies himself as "vice president for Phillips International, one of the largest investment advisory companies in the world," Phillips International in fact predominantly sells vitamins and nutritional supplements and publishes numerous newsletters. A few of the newsletters do deal with investing, but even if Phillips's entire revenue came from investment advice, the firm would not be among the 500 largest such companies in the world. The key to Smith's "ChangeWave" system is in the systemic trends that drive most investment opportunity and that, according to Smith, point to 10 "Supersectors" (groups of industries with explosive growth potential) and five "emerging Supersectors," along with nine "Superspaces" (thinly populated areas of economic opportunity) and seven categories of profitable companies across industries. Collectively, these areas contain the fast-growing, expensive stocks that momentum investors love (and value investors hate). With 33 different point-based scales, Smith helps readers identify "Gods" (Game Over Dominator Stocks) or "eGods" (Emerging Game Over Dominator Stocks), which, he says, should be bought and sold according to moving average conditions. Some readers will find it slightly fishy that 41 of Smith's 56 featured stock picks were among the top 56 performers leading up to February 2000, when Smith finished writing, and all but four of the rest were among the top 100 (out of more than 10,500 stocks). Most of his picks are currently down at least 50%, and in many cases much more. However, perhaps this should not discourage ChangeWave believers: the author argues that fundamental technological and human truths (waves) beat temporary market aberrations (storms). Investors beware: the book does not offer sufficient evidence that the system works; it is supported by the author's personal theorizing about the economy and financial markets. (June)
Copyright 2000 Reed Business Information, Inc.

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Product Details

• Hardcover: 256 pages
• Publisher: Bard Press; Stated 1st Printing edition (June 5, 2000)
• Language: English
• ISBN-10: 1885167350
• ISBN-13: 978-1885167354
• Product Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.1 x 1.3 inches
• Shipping Weight: 1 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 3.4 out of 5 stars See all reviews (36 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #1,319,599 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

81 of 85 people found the following review helpful:

3.0 out of 5 stars windy. . ., August 18, 2000

By	Ruth Henriquez Lyon (Duluth, Minnesota USA) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

First of all let me say that I do believe this author has some good ideas. His basic strategy is to identify the strongest players in the new economy (tech stocks), then identify the companies which supply those companies, then find out who sells to those suppliers, and continue on in that fashion. Then you sit down and diagram the companies and their interrelationships.

So, he does know what he's talking about (I think)--it's just that the way he talks about it is just so damned annoying. I would estimate that 30% of the text is just his definitions of his own pet terms. Thus we have KVPs (Killer Value Propositions), "new, order-of-magnitude improvements in the status quo." There are ChangeWaves, FadWaves, SuperSpaces, and WaveRiders. There are AfterShocks and Emerging game-over dominators (E.G.O.D.) Since he uses these terms throughout his discourse, you'd better learn them if you want to get what's going on. Personally, I don't have the patience.

When I buy a book, I want to believe in the author. After all, I've made an investment. But this sort of jargon really makes me feel like I'm being sold a bill of goods. If I could give the author one piece of advice it would be to read The Elements of Style by William Strunk. We had to read it in middle school so we could learn how to write without making the reader suffer too much.

Some have criticized the book because it's a blatant advertisement for the author's website. This is true. However, I would like to say that the author's writing is much better in his website articles. These articles are available to non-paying visitors. Also, he has a lot of other information, good information, on his website which is offered for free. Thus, in the balance, I think he has knowledge to offer and he knows a lot, and he's not a greedy used-car salesman type. But I suggest you visit the website, where you can sample portions of the book, before deciding to buy it.

262 of 291 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars ChangeWave Investing: A must read!, April 20, 2000

By A Customer

I was lucky enough to get an advanced proof of this book andwas amazed at how easy it was to read. I have been a"ChangeWaver" via e-mail for over a year and have profited handsomely. The real power of this book and investment model will be the ChangeWave Alliance. Open Source Investing and ChangeWave.com will rock Wall Street. By linking 1,000's of new economy professionals who eat and breathe new technology every day and aligning their knowlege and investment goals with a singular investment model and investment analysis logic is one of the most powerful concepts I have ever seen. Those of us who realize that Wall Street is about creating fee's from investment banking ( I am one I should know) by using positive analyst comments to make and move a stock have often wondered when this dirty little secret would be unveiled in the open information world of the internet. Unbiased investment research is the key to discovering the next "Game Over Dominators" and with 20 million online investors by 2003 it will be their collective power (and ChangeWave research) that will move the markets.How else do you explain a person who "writes reports" earning up to $15 million a year...give me a break. When smart people see this for what it really is the mataphoical "Komona" will be opened. When a subset of highly informed and disciplined investors apply this model and make investing decisions accordingly watch out. Tobin Smith's network of ChangeWavers may become THE market movers of the future. Remember, the "Network is the Guru"!.

40 of 42 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars Change Wave Investing, June 7, 2000

By	Steve Sinclair (Glendale, California) - See all my reviews

As the stock market has risen to new heights in recent years, high-tech stocks have led the way. However, most novice investors, do not truly understand the tech stocks they own or how they interface with our new economy. Tobin Smith, author of Change Wave helps to put it all together it terms of products and services that will dominate or play a supporting cast in the evolving technology world. This book would be a useful guide for investors, both beginners and pros. The book is insightful on how the tech sectors (communications, semiconductors, computers, software, and Internet stocks) interact and which companies will create dominant positions and stockholder profits. Smith presents his own strategy for picking tech stocks, and offers recommendations of stocks and technology. This stock picking strategy I found to be different , enlightening and lucrative.