Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis [DOWNLOAD: PDF] (Digital)

by Robert J. Lempert (Author), Steven W. Popper (Author), Steven C. Bankes (Author)

Editorial Reviews

Product Description
Scenario analysis has been used through much of RAND's five decades as a means to break through the limits to thinking about the unknown. The authors show how the creative use of new information technology will increasingly allow the common-sense notion of long-term planning without predictions to be applied with analytical rigor to the most serious challenges facing humankind. The authors examine traditional methods and discuss new tools and methods available to increase the power of longer-term policy analysis. These new methods are used in an illustrative case study which utilizes a simple model and data set; the authors also discuss how their method may be extended to more realistic, real-world cases. This book will interest all those involved in future assessment, longer-term planning and analysis, and research methodologies. --This text refers to the Paperback edition.

About the Author
Robert J. Lempert (Ph.D., Applied Physics, Harvard University) is a senior physical scientist at RAND. Dr. Lempert's recent work has focused on science and technology policy.

Steven W. Popper (Ph.D., Economics, UC Berkeley) is a senior economist in RAND's International Policy Department and serves as Associate Director of the Science and Technology Policy Institute.

Steven C. Bankes (Ph.D., Computer Science, University of Colorado) is a senior computer scientist at RAND. Dr. Bankes is the originator of the computational research methodologies known as "exploratory modeling," which provide a basis for studying complex, adaptive, and incompletely understood systems through computational experiments. --This text refers to the Paperback edition.

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• Publisher: RAND (September 12, 2003)
• Average Customer Review: 5.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (3 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #3,359,920 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The Complexity of long term policy planning strategies, April 25, 2004

By	Susan Rankaitis (Claremont, California United States) - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

This review is from: Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis (Paperback)

The visionary ideas put forward by Lempert, Popper and Bankes work not only for business analysis but provide thought -provoking models for many different types of long term planning. Of particular interest to the general reader are the discussion of conditions of deep uncertainty and the necessity of seeking robust strategies.

2 of 3 people found the following review helpful:

5.0 out of 5 stars The Next 100 years of Strategic Thinking, January 9, 2004

By	Chris Rowan (Coronado, CA United States) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis (Paperback)

"Shaping the Next One Hundred Years" by Lempert, Popper and Bankes is as an exciting new book on strategic thinking and is comparable in importance to Michael Porter's "Competitive Strategy ". The book describes a methodology that mirrors how successful business leaders think while using novel software to expand and codify the decision making process. Lempert et al accomplish this by using exploratory modeling to evaluate the myriad possible futures a decision maker faces and then comparing different strategies against the desired metrics. The results are new insights and a strategy that works regardless of unpredictable events the future. The methodology is revolutionary and will become the preeminent way important decisions are made.

5.0 out of 5 stars An excellent guide for forward-thinkers and strategists, November 18, 2003

By	Midwest Book Review (Oregon, WI USA) - See all my reviews

This review is from: Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis (Paperback)

The collaboration of Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper and Steven C. Bankes, Shaping The Next One Hundred Years: New Methods For Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis offers complex mathematical analysis techniques for making long-term policy predictions. Sample models, ways to analyze sustainable development, robust and adaptive strategies, and more fill the pages of this technical guide focusing upon quantitative approaches to long-term policy analysis. An excellent guide for forward-thinkers and strategists in business who must take into account such diverse considerations as environmental protection, political terrorism, genetic technologies, international trade developments, and more, Shaping The Next One Hundred Years is very strongly recommended reading.