The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (Hardcover)

~ George Friedman (Author)

Editorial Reviews

Product Description

Conventional analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term shifts taking place in full view of the world. George Friedman In his long-awaited and provocative new book, George Friedman turns his eye on the futureoffering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century. The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new erawith changes in store, including:  The U.S.-Jihadist war will concludereplaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.  China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.  A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.  Technology will focus on spaceboth for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.  The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century. Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead. For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com

Product Details

• Hardcover: 272 pages
• Publisher: Doubleday (2008)
• Language: English
• ASIN: B0027J738Y
• Shipping Weight: 1.1 pounds
• Average Customer Review: 4.0 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (2 customer reviews)
• Amazon.com Sales Rank: #264,882 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

2 of 2 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars Playing with the crystal ball, August 1, 2009

By	Alaturka (Northport, NY USA) - See all my reviews

If it were not for the background and the reputation of the author, it would be easy to dismiss this book as surreal and way too imaginative. On the other hand Friedman should be commended for having the courage to look into the far future, beyond current trends and fads, and giving us a taste of international developments likely to happen within the next century.

He does a good job in preparing the reader to expect the unexpected to happen based on past history. What may sound silly now, may in fact be feasible in the future, and not necessarily far future either.

Pages are packed with very interesting insights and not surprisingly, USA is the center of history in the 21st century. Was 20th century not an American century also? Other players come on to the stage though, and as a Turk, I was really puzzled by his assertion of Turkey becoming a key global power player. It is hard to imagine now Turkey becoming much more than a regional superpower within next 50 years. It would require a succesful reformation movement in Islam for a non-Arab Muslim country to be able to lead the Muslim block, not to mention a reduction of oil based wealth creation in key Arab states that would force them to look for alliances beyond USA.

He makes a case for how the shift in demographics, mainly the drastic drop in birth rates, will alter how the history flows. His arguments and methods give us a glimpse of how a professional analyst applies his trade.

I did not agree with some of the technology related predictions and analysis. This seems his weakness and he was way off. Nuclear power will dominate for sure before we beam in microwave power from space. Solar energy is not free, except for solar heating. Creation of a photovoltaic cell consumes more energy than the cell is capable of producing in many years for example, not to mention the energy cost of hauling them into space. There were many such far-fetched ideas and assertions. Friedman should have consulted some more knowledgeable people on these issues.

Finally, though he does warn us that this is simply a what-if game, and an example of possible political developments to come, his WWIII scenario, where USA fights a Turkish-Japanese allience was indeed far-fetched.

His assertions and analysis should be compared with that of Brzezinski in the Grand Chessboard for example, where he also makes some predictions on the future of international politics, and there are glaring differences.

Overall an interesting book to read, well written and well delivered.

0 of 1 people found the following review helpful:

4.0 out of 5 stars The Next 100 years..., June 11, 2009

By	Francisco J. Gutierrez V - See all my reviews (REAL NAME)

Very fun book to read, and very well based forecast of the geopolitical events that can develop during this century; although some things seem a little far-fetched, I still enjoyed reading the book.