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Will You Be Alive 10 Years from Now?: And Numerous Other Curious Questions in Probability

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Paul J. Nahin (Author)
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Paul J. Nahin (Author)
3.9 out of 5 stars 7 customer reviews
ISBN-13: 978-0691156804
ISBN-10: 0691156808
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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 256 pages
  • Publisher: Princeton University Press (November 24, 2013)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0691156808
  • ISBN-13: 978-0691156804
  • Product Dimensions: 1 x 6.5 x 9.5 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 3.9 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #505,245 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Most Helpful Customer Reviews

10 of 10 people found the following review helpful
Fun with probability?? You Bet!!
By Ms. B on November 16, 2013
Format: Hardcover
If you enjoyed the author's previous books on probability puzzles (Dueling Idiots and Digital Dice), then this one continues that theme with the same playfulness. Yes, Professor Nahin actually does calculate the probability of being alive 10 years from now.
With a year of basic calculus under your belt, and the willingness to just have fun with math, this book will satisfy.

And Prof. Nahin, if you're reading this review, I just want to say a Thank You for all your books. From Oliver Heaviside to this one, they've given much pleasure. Many of your examples I've used in my mathematics classes. Now, please, get busy on that next one!
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15 of 19 people found the following review helpful
Freshman probability story problems and solutions
By David J. Aldous on November 20, 2013
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
Recreational mathematical puzzles, usually involving made-up stories, often involve probability -- this is a tradition dating back at least to Lewis Carroll's Pillow Problems, in the 19th century. A typical first course in mathematical probability, at the college freshman or advanced high school level, teaches mathematical techniques via examples and exercises, many presented merely as mathematics but others drawing from this "made-up story" tradition. A less common style of mathematics teaching emphasizes problem-solving rather than textbook reading, and this works well for motivated students enthusiastic about mathematics (a small minority, alas). Mosteller's 1965 book Fifty Challenging Problems in Probability is the classic resource for this purpose. The present book continues in the same style, consisting mainly of 25 short (average 6 pages) chapters, each giving a "made-up story" problem and implicitly challenging the reader to find the solution before reading the author's solution. So it's a useful additional resource for problem-loving students or for an inexperienced instructor who is not acquainted with the extensive body of elementary problems from which these problems have been sampled. But it's not particularly novel or inspiring.

The title is rather misleading, referring to the only one of the 25 problems that uses real-world data (life tables). A reader wishing a gentle introduction to mathematical probability featuring real-world questions might prefer Haigh's Taking Chances: Winning with Probability which emphasizes real sports and games.
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3 of 3 people found the following review helpful
A good piece of literature
By Alexander Shuger on March 15, 2014
Format: Hardcover
I've found the work a very cute exposition of some interesting everyday type problems that have nice solutions by applying probabilistic methodology. The writing is excellent, and Nahin in not new to providing such as he has written more than ten bestselling books in the last 12 years. This particular one has the added advantage that simulation code is provided for most of the difficult problems, and while the code is in Mat lab, it can be easily seen to be modified for use in just about any language. Thus the book makes a good extra augmentation to a basic course in probability and simulations and can indeed be used in an academic setting for just that!

All twenty five problems are presented in a clear, and many times strikingly cute manner, as are the solutions. This is an exemplary text for those wanting to write good quantitative texts.
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1 of 1 people found the following review helpful
An excellent resource for basic problems in probability that can be difficult to understand
By Charles Ashbacher HALL OF FAMETOP 500 REVIEWERVINE VOICE on December 18, 2014
Format: Kindle Edition
Probability is a fascinating area because some of the conclusions appear to be counterintuitive while in fact they are a direct consequence of the rules of probability wrapped within the context of the stated conditions. Nahin opens with 9 classical problems of probability that give a brief historical background to the development of the field. Most of these problems are covered in basic works on probability so outside of the mention of the actions of the mathematicians, there is nothing new in that section.
However, it sets the stage for a series of 25 challenge problems in probability that are very difficult; the mathematics at times covers pages and operations up to and including calculus. Each section starts with a detailed statement of the problem and in most cases that is followed by a theoretical analysis and a computer simulation written in MATLAB code. Solutions to the challenge problems are included in the final section. The topics are easy to understand, some of them involve situations that the reader is very familiar with. Some examples are an analysis of proofreading strategies, situations involving gambling, analyzing the game of ping-pong and computing the probability that you will be alive 10 years from now.
If you enjoy working your way through difficult problems in probability or are a teacher looking for interesting problems to give your students, then this book is an excellent resource. One problem is simple enough to be used as a demonstration of counting techniques and conditional probability so I plan on using it the next time I teach basic statistics. It involves chickens in boxes.

Published in Journal of Recreational Mathematics, reprinted with permission
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