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Elements of Forecasting with Economic Applications Card and InfoTrac College Edition
 
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Elements of Forecasting with Economic Applications Card and InfoTrac College Edition (Hardcover)

by Francis X. Diebold (Author)
3.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (6 customer reviews)

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Editorial Reviews

Review
"The text is excellent from instructor’s perspective. It is focused and comprehensive. The text is empirically oriented. It covers major issues of time-series econometrics at the undergraduate level. Including several comprehensive applications is a unique and outstanding feature of this book."

"I will adopt the new edition. Coverage and organization of the book are excellent and focused on the student while giving many pointers and references to advanced material and even current research."

"The strength of the Diebold text is that it covers sufficiently diverse topics related to forecasting methods (compared with other books in the market). Also, its nicely organized flow of the topics should be very accessible to many readers, which is the primary reason why I assigned this book to my students." --This text refers to the Hardcover edition.

Product Description
Elements of Forecasting, 3e is a concise, modern survey of business and economic forecasting methods. Written by a leading expert on forecasting, it focuses on the core techniques of widest applicability and assumes only an elementary background in statistics. It is applications-oriented and illustrates all methods with detailed real-world applications, many of them international in flavor, designed to mimic typical forecasting situations. In many chapters, the application is the centerpiece of the presentation.

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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 460 pages
  • Publisher: South-Western College Pub; 3 edition (September 19, 2003)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0324163827
  • ISBN-13: 978-0324163827
  • Product Dimensions: 9.7 x 7.4 x 0.8 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.8 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 3.0 out of 5 stars See all reviews (6 customer reviews)
  • Amazon.com Sales Rank: #883,122 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)


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Customer Reviews

6 Reviews
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 (2)
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Average Customer Review
3.0 out of 5 stars (6 customer reviews)
 
 
 
 
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27 of 30 people found the following review helpful:
1.0 out of 5 stars an embarrassingly slapdash and sloppy book, September 27, 2002
By Ronald Michener "williamdouglass" (Charlottesville, VA United States) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   
There were a considerable number of errors in the first edition that I pointed out to the author shortly after its publication. The second edition seems to have corrected few if any of them. Let me cite two egregious examples.

In the chapter on ARMA models, the example analyzed is Canadian Employment data. One of the models that is fit is an MA(4) -- see pages 164-6. When I tried to reproduce these results using software other than EVIEWS, using the data disk in the 1st edition, I couldn't. I contacted EVIEWS and they discovered a programming error in the estimation routine. They released a patch to fix EVIEWS. However, the author never re-estimated his model, and the estimates in the second edition are the same as in the first. However, my copy of the 2nd edition has no data disk! Was that thought to be an adequate solution?!

Chapter 9 ("Putting it all together") is a capstone chapter that analyzes liquor sales data using the techniques introduced in earlier chapters. After several pages (pp. 207-19) a model is selected. On pages 220-2, the residuals are examined using the Box-Ljung statistic, and deemed acceptable. However, as a careful examination of table 9.6 makes clear, the p-values for the Box-Ljung statistic were computed as if the input data were a raw series. The model generating the residuals (p. 219) had 3 autoregressive terms! This changes the d.f. in the chi-square distribution of the statistic. If you make the appropriate correction using the data in table 9.6, and compute the p-values correctly, you will see that the model residuals apparently ARE NOT white noise. One reason is a calendar effect in liquor sales: months that contain more than a usual number of Fridays and Saturdays result in more liquor sales; ones with more Sundays result in lower liquor sales. However, the author doesn't discover this, but accepts his inappropriate model on the basis of faulty distribution theory.

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13 of 16 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars Excellent introductory guide to forecasting !!!, January 25, 1999
The use of practical examples (using the Eviews software) and the availability of a data disk makes this a very relevant guide for practitioners. There is a good section on graphical analysis and modelling of cycles using AR and MA processes. The mathematics is kept simple and clear, intuitive explanations are given throughout. The treatment of unit roots, cointegration and other advanced materials is quite sketchy but I guess that is to be expected in an introductory text. With the level of clarity evident throughout this book, I certainty hope Diebold follows up with another book on more advanced forecasting techniques.
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5 of 7 people found the following review helpful:
1.0 out of 5 stars Third edition is no better, January 14, 2004
By Ronald Michener "williamdouglass" (Charlottesville, VA United States) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   
I posted the unfavorable review of the second edition. I have recently had an opportunity to see the third edition, and find the same errors are still present.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 stars Forecasting Book
The book that i bought was really in a good shape. it was completely new even though i bought it with a price for old book. Read more
Published 9 months ago by Saria Choudhury

3.0 out of 5 stars Not Bad
The book starts with talking about forecasting deterministic trends, then seasonalities, later chapters 6,7,8 talk about forecasting cycles. Read more
Published on January 4, 2007 by Sebastian Krynski

3.0 out of 5 stars Good, but poor examples
If the purpose of using this book is to get a brief idea of what certain concepts are then it is a good book. Read more
Published on November 26, 1999 by John

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