The Emerging Democratic Majority (Paperback)

The many analogies they draw between the 1960s and the current political climate are probably self-evident to most political junkies already. In both eras, the party in power overestimated its own popularity and the durability of its voting base, and suffered from a growing rift between moderates and those on the far left or right within its ranks. Much as Watergate provided the Democrats with a brief respite from their impending years in the wilderness, the Clinton scandals and Al Gore's somewhat inept response to them have enabled the Republicans to remain in power beyond the scope of their current voting base.

Judis and Teixeira argue that that base has already been showing signs of fragmentation for a decade and will inevitably continue to do so; and they provide a detailed demographic and geographical analysis for their argument. As the Republicans continue to alienate most minority groups, the Democrats' already significant advantage among nonwhite voters will only improve (a process that has been exacerbated rather than eased by the Bush administration's response to September 11, they argue). Among whites, the longstanding Republican advantage is past its peak and began to crack as early as 1992. Judis and Teixeira predict that in the coming decade, these trends have the potential to leave the Republicans with a hardcore support base on the all-important Electoral College map nearly as small as that held by the Democrats in the 1980s, concentrated in the Deep South and upper Rockies. Judis and Teixeira provide predictions for all 50 states, ranging from thumbnail sketches to pages-long analyses depending on the size and degree of change in each state. Although no one is likely to agree with all of their predictions (I don't), the breadth and detail of the study is fascinating regardless of your political allegiance.

Although the authors' political persuasion is unmistakable, there is very little analysis of issues to be found in the book. Instead, they stick to analyzing the parties' respective positions on the hottest issues of the era. Their bluntness in addressing the mistakes and cynical moves of both parties in the past 30 years is likely to offend people of both extremes. But for the more moderate among us, it's a breath of fresh air to read in the same place that, yes, the Republicans did build their majority on appeals to racism, misogyny and homophobia and, yes, the far left can in fact be hypersensitive and intolerant in its own way. Again, anyone with an opinion (again, including myself) is likely to disagree with their characterizations at some point, and it could also be argued that they distort the realities of the 2000 political landscape and overstate the excesses of the post-60s Left in order to better fit their argument. But overall, it is a solidly grounded argument, and Judis and Teixeira do acknowledge four common Republican counterarguments and make a solid case against each of them.

Inevitably, most readers will either want to believe this book before reading it, or hope it's wrong and refuse to be swayed as a result. But either way, it's a formidable and well- supported thesis. I look forward to re-reading it in a few years to see how many of the predictions prove true.

The conclusion: the Democratic party will emerge as a new majority by the end of the decade. The Republicans may or may not retain the House this year, and GWB may or may not win re-election in 2004. The authors don't pretend to be fortune tellers; instead they chart trends based on comprehensive analysis.

The text backs up its logic with lots of figures, sometimes charted. Part of the book goes state by state for key states and regions, sometimes down to the county level to show what has been (and will be) happening. Each and every explanation made sense to me, without being too tedious to follow.

The only negative thing I can say is to echo something Joe Conason mentioned in Salon. The authors completely ignore the mainstream media bias against Gore in Election 2000. However, since that really isn't the topic of this book it doesn't take away from the five stars I give it.

My hesitancy with the book lies with their assumptions that the growing segment of American society that is employed by the technology sector rather than in manufacturing will provide a solid Democratic constituency. As these segment expands, its political allegiance is likely to fragment. Also, the book does not deal with many other real-world factors in the ongoing vitality of the GOP. For instance, the current right wing bias of the news media (despite constant counterfactual talk of the liberal media) has had a disturbing influence on American politics and public opinion. Or, another example, the lack of strong leadership in the Democratic party has been a major factor in the GOP being able to gain control of Congress. I might agree that the demographic make up of the United States populace ought to favor the Democrats, but the ineffectual Democratic leadership coupled with the high effective public relations campaign on the Right has offset many of the Democrats demographic advantages.

The Democrats need to do more than rely upon shifts in the American electorate: they need to counter much of the Right's effectiveness in framing the issues being debated. For instance, the media most decidedly is not liberal, but the Democrats have done an abysmal job of combating that widespread assumption. They also need to formulate a definite alternative to the GOP. Potential presidential candidates such as Joseph Lieberman are almost indistinguishable from most Republicans. They also need to motivate their potential voting base. For instance, in the midterm 2002 election, far less of their potential voting base came out to vote. If they do not, they will not be able to take advantage of their demographic edge.

One last issue that troubled me in the book was the fact that while the authors clearly support the Democratic party, they support a remarkably conservative, moderate Democratic party. Now, perhaps this is realistic and my own views unrealistic. My own political beliefs are far to the left of the Democratic party (I tend to vote Democratic simply because they are less conservative than the Republicans), which I see as having become as conservative as most moderate Republicans. The authors seem at points to advocate tailoring the Democratic message with the trends of society, based upon polling data. I personally would prefer candidates who, while not unconcerned with the opinions of everyday citizens, nonetheless articulate a vision of where we, as a nation, need to go and how to get there.

One simple minded criticism of this book is that its contentions were not born out by the 2002 midterm elections. In fact, their contentions might not be born out in the 2004 elections either. The trends that they are trying to identify are longer term than that, and it could take up to a decade for much of the trend to manifest itself fully.