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optimum strategy for peace - consider hamas vs isreal


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Initial post: Nov 18, 2012 2:23:07 PM PST
do nothing - christian approach
tit for tat - rappoports simulation results
Nx retaliation - intermediate to last option
totally destroy them -
other ?

rappoports book the evolution of cooperation would indicate that a tit for tat strategy elicits the most cooperation (eg peace) from an opponent

the trouble is that not all opponents learn
there were some assumptions that dont fit the gaza sitrep now

other alternatives might be to wipe out the leadership down 2-3 or more levels hoping the followers will quit
or be unable to continue

i would lean to the total destruction if there were not balancing factors. eg if isreal turned gaza into a mirror other countries might then start attacking them.

so what option do you think is best for peace

do you have other alternatives to consider ?

Posted on Nov 18, 2012 2:57:45 PM PST
OldAmazonian says:
Build them enough Wal Marts.

Posted on Nov 18, 2012 2:58:55 PM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 18, 2012 3:08:42 PM PST
DarthRad says:
I think it's hopeless. Neither side wants peace. Both sides hate each other with a passion.

All the peaceniks have emigrated out of Israel (several hundred thousand over the last decade alone), and the only Jews left in Israel want a Greater Israel and to expel all the Arabs. This is now the majority opinion of Israeli Jews, according to surveys.

I see Gaza as being a potential spark to draw Egypt back into the conflict. The Muslim Brotherhood is not going to stand by and continue to enforce their side of the prison wall that surrounds Gaza if Israel starts pounding Gaza again.

And Bibi Netanyahu is all to blame for this. He is doing this just because the world laughed at his stupid cartoon drawings at the UN, Barak Obama got re-elected despite $57 million worth of campaign money thrown in favor of Republican candidates from Bibi's supporter Sheldon Adelson (ref: http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/11/sheldon-adelson-super-pac-lousy-bets), and his Israeli opponents were jumping all over him for having gotten Israel involved in the US presidential elections.

So Bibi needs a distraction in which he can beat his breasts and show the Arab-hating Israelis who now dominate the politics there how good of an Arab-fighter he is.

This article points out how Bibi CHOSE to go the route of war by assassinating the Hamas military commander right before a cease fire agreement:

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/middle-east/israel-and-palestine/121117/israel-strike-gaza--egypt-cease-fire

Israeli leaders now talk about this constant fighting in Gaza in terms of "mowing the grass", as if Palestinians were just weeds to be chopped down regularly.

The best thing the US can do is to stay out of it. The Israel lobby has fragmented in the US. American Jews showed that while some are diehard Israel right wing supporters, like Sheldon Adelson, others like Harvey Weinstein (who put out a pro-Obama film on Seal Team Six right before the election) remain true to their liberal roots.

Obama won his election with a coalition of women voters, Hispanics, Asians, and black Americans, none of whom want to get involved with any Israeli war.

When Thomas Friedman has given up hope, and doesn't care anymore, then you know it's hopeless:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/11/opinion/sunday/friedman-president-obama-is-busy.html

"My president is busy" sums it all up.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 3:15:04 PM PST
John M. Lane says:
I disagree, DarthRad. Israel wants peace.

They do not want to be targets for Hamas rocket teams, though.

If the terrorists stopped shooting at Israel, peace would break out.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 3:25:19 PM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 18, 2012 3:29:22 PM PST
DarthRad says:
JML,

Seriously, I couldn't care less what Israel wants. I just want the U.S. to stay out of it.

"If the terrorists stopped shooting at Israel, peace would break out. "

au contraire - Mahmoud Abbas recently made a declaration that would have been earth-shaking, had Bib Netanyahu been paying attention - he basically declared that he had given up on the Palestinian right of return:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=RWa0hUcTUFA#!

http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/abu-mazen-wants-a-state-not-the-right-of-return.premium-1.478658

Notice how Shimon Peres paid attention to this comment, and Bibi chose to ignore this potential opening to future negotiations. Because Bibi doesn't want peace or a Palestinian state. Bibi wants a Greater Israel.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/jimmy-carter-netanyahu-has-abandoned-two-state-solution-in-favor-of-greater-israel/

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 3:27:51 PM PST
south texas says:
eqypt failed and there top cia guy no longer has relationship with isreal top cia guy. with the failure of that communcation all previous history is out the window.

currently egypt is trying for sharia law and getting rid of the supreme court after one of these two all bets will be off in entire middle east.

Posted on Nov 18, 2012 3:31:38 PM PST
DarthRad says:
Yep. Looks bad for peace in the middle east.

By the way, the original Truman doctrine regarding Israel was that the US would support Israel's existence, but never, ever station troops there to help protect it.

That doctrine still holds.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 3:52:06 PM PST
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In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 4:00:45 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Feb 25, 2013 5:20:36 AM PST]

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 4:19:38 PM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 18, 2012 4:26:16 PM PST
we are talking isreals options now that gaza has attacked

how do you get them to do what say is a 'solution'
you stated an end point
not a strategy to effect it

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 4:29:40 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Feb 25, 2013 5:20:37 AM PST]

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 4:30:25 PM PST
so how much force

tit for tat
total eradication
something in between

Posted on Nov 18, 2012 4:34:58 PM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 18, 2012 4:36:21 PM PST
DarthRad says:
As it turns out, the Patriots failed miserably, although they did make for some spectacular TV, exploding in the night sky. Congressional testimony from an Israeli who studied the results:

http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/congress/1992_h/h920407r.htm

Missile battery crew to help operate a highly technical piece of weaponry are one thing. Ground troops are different.

And by the way, Greater Israel isn't such a great idea if Israel wants to remain a Jewish state, because the Arabs are closing in on outgrowing the Jewish population, if they haven't already:

http://israelipalestinian.procon.org/view.resource.php?resourceID=000636

Which is why Jewish Israelis now dream the dream of simply expelling all those troublesome Arabs from Eretz Israel.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 4:42:10 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Feb 25, 2013 5:20:38 AM PST]

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 4:52:41 PM PST
DarthRad says:au contraire - Mahmoud Abbas recently made a declaration that would have been earth-shaking, had Bib Netanyahu been paying attention - he basically declared that he had given up on the Palestinian right of return:
=================================

You do know that Abbas has no control over Gaza don't you?

Posted on Nov 18, 2012 4:53:38 PM PST
DarthRad says:
I trust My President, Barak Obama, who won despite having Sheldon Adelson, ardent Bibi Netanyahu supporter, throw $57 million of campaign contributions against him, to do the right thing and NOT put American troops into Israel, or anywhere else in the Middle East.

That's why he's in Asia this week, because you know what? America has a lot more important things to take care of first than catering to the fantasies of right wing nationalist Israelis who want to expel all Arabs. Obama can count on his Asian and Hispanic and women and liberal Jewish supporters, even if right wing Jewish Americans abandon him and the Democrats for the wingnut vulture capitalist Republicans.

There's nothing like losing big time in an election to prove that you have no influence anymore on the political discussion in America. Thank you Sheldon Adelson.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 4:53:47 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Feb 25, 2013 5:20:39 AM PST]

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 5:00:23 PM PST
DarthRad says:America has a lot more important things to take care of first than catering to the fantasies of right wing nationalist Israelis who want to expel all Arabs.
=====================
oh clueless one. 25% of the population of israel is Arab and are accepted as Israeli's.

seems you know much of nothing about this conflict.

Posted on Nov 18, 2012 5:03:10 PM PST
jeffesq613 says:
Just what this Forum was missing. Another thread about Israel. This one started by the horse's behind.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 5:10:06 PM PST
John M. Lane says:
Thanks for the press release from Hamas about their willingness to re-consider their position on the right of return, DarthRad.

The real issue is Hamas' willingness to stop shooting at Israel. Ho Chi Minh counseled his followers to "talk peace and make war." It worked.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 5:16:32 PM PST
DarthRad says:
kbw,

You are the one who needs to do some more reading. Try reading some ISRAELI NEWSPAPERS, like I do.

Here's the ISRAELI POLL that tells you what ISRAELIS think, written by an ISRAELI newspaper:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/survey-most-israeli-jews-wouldn-t-give-palestinians-vote-if-west-bank-was-annexed.premium-1.471644

Here's another article about racism against Africans at a soccer match:

http://972mag.com/when-an-israeli-soccer-game-looks-like-a-klan-rally/58818/

As I have said many times, I used to live in a neighborhood that was 50% Jewish and had a lot of former Israelis. An estimated 750,000 to 1 million Israelis have done the reverse aliyah thing and LEFT THE COUNTRY over the history of Israel. Here's a reference for you:

http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/07/05/the_million_missing_israelis

Since the Israelis I knew were all nice people, and were very likely peaceniks who were tired of having rockets raining down on them and having to fight the Arabs all the time, I think it would be a safe bet to assume that the only Israelis left are the ones who LIKE to fight the Arabs.

So, I do know a lot about the country, way more than you.

Try reading something about Israel for a change that is out of the Faux News bubble you live in.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 5:24:00 PM PST
John M. Lane says:
So, based on your vast, intimate knowledge of all things Israeli, DarthRad, I should understand that they don't mind being the targets of an endless salvo of rockets?

I concede that I'd never have guessed that.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 5:30:12 PM PST
L. King says:
Rapoport went beyond simple tit for tat. See Fights, Games, and Debates by Rapoport. Also The Evolution of Cooperation: Revised Edition was by Robert Axelrod, not Rapoport, though Rapoport appears in Axelrod's book. Tit for tat was Axelrod's first winning strategy. In the following year he proposed tit for two tats which worked better. The Israelis appear to apply a modified version of this - minor tats are tolerated for a number of iterations; major tats are followed by warnings, which if they are not heeded are followed by decisive retribution.

Hamas didn't pay attention. In their view they are allowed a number of "free shots" and keep trying to push the envelope.

The essential issue is how one can use a strategy to signal intent and convince one's opponent not to "defect", that is to harm their opponent. This assumes that the other side is a rational player and not one that always defects. It also considers that each side may have a different set of values that contribute to their understanding of rationality.

Rapoport also looked at increasing the number of agents who interact, but predicting how signals might be interpreted got to be very difficult.

I had the pleasure of attending a couple of Rapoport's lectures when in University. I believe he was retired or semi-retired at the time. I also knew his son informally as he's married to a friend of a friend of mine and I occasionally run into him at parties.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 5:32:10 PM PST
L. King says:
He also said that he personally had given up the so called "right of return", not that he was dropping it from policy. Wow. Like that makes a difference. Not.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 18, 2012 5:44:05 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Feb 25, 2013 5:20:40 AM PST]
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Discussion in:  History forum
Participants:  16
Total posts:  327
Initial post:  Nov 18, 2012
Latest post:  Nov 23, 2012

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