In poker, you have to calculate the odds of a guy drawing a certain card. For instance, the odds of drawing an inside straight are 1 in 13. So, let's size up the odds in this case.
The fact that both Oswald and Doorman look generally alike and are both wearing a loose-fitting outer shirt, that is unbuttoned, over a white t-shirt with a v-neck, creates, in itself, a strong likelihood that they are the same person.
Take the one issue of both shirts being unbuttoned. What percentage of men at work in the city go around with their shirt largely unbuttoned? Percentage-wise, it has got to be small. I don't know what it is exactly, but you'd have to agree that it could be no greater than 1 in 10. Right? If you don't agree, then walk down the street in downtown Dallas, Texas or any other big city and start observing men, and keep track of how many are buttoned vs unbuttoned, and come up with your own number. Take a representative sample. I think 1 in 10 is actually too big, but we'll go with it. The simple fact is that: MOST MEN BUTTON UP.
Now, there's no doubt that Oswald was unbuttoned- he was unbuttoned when he was arrested. Plus, we know that his buttons were missing, so he had to be unbuttoned. But nobody reported Lovelady being unbuttoned, and in the one picture we have of him from that day, he was NOT unbuttoned.
Mathematically speaking, that one variable, by itself, creates strong odds that Doorman was Oswald and not Lovelady.
But then, you keep going. Both Oswald's and Doorman's shirts were loose-fitting, somewhat over-sized. The simple fact is that Oswald was thin and scrawny, and he didn't fill out his shirts too well, and you see the same thing in Doorman, whose shirt was billowing. Lovelady was a burly guy, in comparison, weighing 40 pounds more than Oswald. And that's why Lovelady's shirts fit snugly.
I put the odds of Oswald and Doorman both wearing loose-fitting shirts at 1 in 3. Again, it probably should be lower, but we'll go with that. But, when you are talking about two variables, they have to be multiplied together. So, we are now talking about a 1 in 30 chance that both Doorman and Oswald would be wearing shirts that were both unbuttoned and loose-fitting. (10 x 3 = 30)
Then there is the v-neck t-shirt. Round-neck t-shirts, also called crew-neck, have always been more popular and still are, but v-neck users are gaining. Recent industry reports show that 67% of t-shirt sales have been crew-neck. Then came sleeveless tanks at 17%, and then v-necks at 16%. That last figure was probably much lower in 1963, but let's go with it. So, we'll say 1 in 6 odds of both wearing v-neck t-shirts. Multiplying that out, we are now at 1 in 180 (30 x 6).
Note that some have argued that Oswald's t-shirt was really a regular t-shirt that got deformed because he pulled on it. But if so, it doesn't matter because it's still a likeness between the two of them. And, how likely is it that Oswald and Lovelady had the same quirk? Note also that in every picture we have of Lovelady, he is wearing a perfect, undeformed, crew-neck t-shirt.
So, we are left with odds of 180 to 1 against the likelihood that both Oswald and Doorway Man wore unbuttoned, loose-fitting, long-sleeved outer shirts over v-neck t-shirts. But then, when we factor in the matching collars and lapels, it takes it off the chart. The odds of that are too small to calculate. They are infinitesmal. The right collars of Oswald and Doorman match PERFECTLY, as I demonstrate in my videos. And although we cannot see the left collar of Doorman, (because they covered it up with that phony, ridiculous Black Tie Man) we can see the long left lapel on Doorman, which matches the one on Oswald. Again, that puts it off the chart. How many shirts even have lapels?
Note that all this would be true even if Doorman could be ANYBODY. It would be true even Doorman could be a random guy who just happened to be walking by and stopped. But, in this case, it's not that Doorman could be just anybody. If he's not Oswald, then he can only be one other person on the face of the Earth: Billy Lovelady. We would have to assume that one particular individual just happened to dress himself and arrange himself that day in the exact same manner as Lee Harvey Oswald.
Mathematically speaking, the odds that Oswald and Doorman are the same person are extremely great. And if you don't think so, I sure wish you would sit down and play some poker with me. And let's make it high stakes.
The Doorman was Oswald, and the likenesses to Lovelady, such as the hairline and the shirt pattern, were FAKED. I'd go all-in on that bet.
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