That's what I've proposed in the past. MacArthur didn't want to drag the Philippines into the war - he didn't want Manila to suffer the fate of Nanking. And for FDR to fire MacArthur for refusing to start a war with Japan would Really arouse the Wrath of Congress - he'd be lucky not be Impeached before voters rejected him in November.
President Quezon of the Philippine Commonwealth was trying to get his friends in the US Congress to vote for immediate Independence for the Philippines when the Japanese landed. He had hoped to negotiate Philippine Neutrality.
But the Japanese military didn't understand such subtleties. They saw the situation as IGS has just described.
I think the best plan would have been for Japan to secure Malaya and at least Brunei before deciding on attacking the US.
Japan had a total of 49 commercial tankers in 1941, 33 of them fast modern ships around 10,000 tons or better and good for 16 to 19 knots. 75% of their tonnage was called up by the IJN in November. But only the 9 fleet oilers were equipped for refueling at sea. (from KAIGUN)
So they really weren't prepared to fight a major naval war in the Pacific while exploiting the oil resources of the East Indies. They never imported more than half the expected amount per annum from the East Indies. Borneo (including Brunei) could have produced all the oil they could import.
Japan only needed to hold Oahu long enough to assure destruction of the American underground oil tanks and shipyard facilities at Pearl Harbor, which would have crippled US Navy offensive capability for a year or more. As you say, the Americans would have probably done that for them.
Once the Panama Canal locks had been wrecked with the remaining torpedoes and bombs of the attack force, only some aircraft and the IJN submarine fleet might be retained at Hawaii to attack US reinforcements coming by way of Cape Horn.
If a few additional divisions could have been freed from the Kwangtung Army, seizing the Panama Canal would have provided another nice bargaining chip at the Peace Talks. Hitler could have put a sub base in the Caribbean to good use, and an American counter-attack would guarantee destruction of the rest of the Canal.
And most of the adult male population of Hawaii could have been drafted for service in the Kwantung Army. A net gain for the Japanese mlitary.
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