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Is the Arab Spring nothing more than an Islamic Surge?


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Showing 1-25 of 453 posts in this discussion
Initial post: Jul 13, 2012 6:30:59 AM PDT
J. Schwarz says:
In an article in a New York paper today, Charles Krauthammer makes a point that the Arab Spring is just an Islamist surge. He states the Arab Spring is a misnomer but the fact is it is just an Islamic ascendancy likely to dominate Arab politics for a generation. He states that only Libya has a chance for real democracy and that Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, possibly Syria, Jordan and Gaza could be next for Islamist rule. What do you think about his statement, do you agree or disagree, why, and how should we in the west react?
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Posted on Jul 13, 2012 12:11:13 PM PDT
D. Robinson says:
I think that, at least in Egypt, a secular student movement was successful in removing Mubarak from power, but the Muslim Brotherhood was more organized and so was able to seize political control.

It doesn't help the situation that the our government tolerated and sometimes supported oppressive regimes in the region for our own interests.

What should the West do? Engage with the democratic countries in the region, isolate the dictatorships, and make a serious effort to reduce dependence on Mideast oil, which is the primary reason the West even gives a damn what happens there.

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 13, 2012 12:13:07 PM PDT
of course

why did cia/dos think otherwise

nothign they change has ever been better

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 13, 2012 3:55:00 PM PDT
Robinson,
I think we should engage with democracies which have similar objectives to ours, which as of now, there aren't any. The Mid-East Democracies will quickly turn into Theocracies which Egypt is already doing. Reducing dependance on Mid East oil is a good idea for a lot of reasons. If the secular westmanages to do that, the Islamic world will go back to global insignificance without oil money to fund exoansion and terrorism around the world.

Posted on Jul 13, 2012 9:32:09 PM PDT
Last edited by the author on Jul 13, 2012 9:34:06 PM PDT
J. Schwarz says:
Is it possible that in order for these Arab states to eventually reach real democracy they need to try their own Islamist leaders first, like a natural transition from dictatorship to Islamic rule and if they don't acheive true democracy then the next step would be real democracy without the Islamists in complete control. The Islamists are on trial. Either they solve the problems in Egypt or make way for the next group of secular people. That may hold true as long as the Brotherhood will give up power easily if the people are against them, but we know these religious people don't like to share their power with anyone but Allah.

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 13, 2012 9:34:15 PM PDT
Last edited by the author on Jul 13, 2012 9:37:06 PM PDT
Lientje says:
J. Schwarz: Charles Krauthammer makes a point that the Arab Spring is just an Islamist surge.

So? When the nations are Islamic it is highly likely that the governments will be run by Islamists.
Can't you get over that. It is not our call.

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 13, 2012 9:34:22 PM PDT
will never happen

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 13, 2012 9:35:52 PM PDT
[Deleted by the author on Jul 13, 2012 9:37:43 PM PDT]

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 13, 2012 9:37:45 PM PDT
J. Schwarz says:
Thanks for your answer but if you don't mind I would like to hear what others think.

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 13, 2012 9:48:43 PM PDT
J.
Islam is incompatible with democracy. Islam is a governmental/Social System/Religion that doesn't allow competing systems to exist. Short of violent revolution, once Islamics take control of a country and implement Sharia there will be no change. Look at the new constitutions in every Islamic "democratic" country. They all enshrine Sharia as the law of the land.

Posted on Jul 13, 2012 9:56:51 PM PDT
Last edited by the author on Jul 13, 2012 9:59:24 PM PDT
J. Schwarz says:
Possibly but the man in the street was responsible for the demise of Mubarak and maybe we are witnessing a gradual movement towards democracy. Either the Islamists are going to solve their problems or they are going to face the people in the street once more. Maybe we need to wait and see what develops. What will the people do in ten years when they are still in the same situation they were today? I think most likely the Brotherhood will blame the Jews for their situation, maybe renew a war, try to pull the wool over their citizens eyes, but in the long run they are going to have to improve the country or take a hike, or repress their own people. And so far democracy has worked in Indonesia and Turkey, but that may change too.

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 13, 2012 10:44:55 PM PDT
TN says:
Arab Spring is actually Arab Going Back to 7th Century.

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 13, 2012 10:47:15 PM PDT
TN says:
@Lily: IIRC, you're a Brit. This is what the British police is doing to some British:

http://gatesofvienna.blogspot.com/2012/07/you-cant-hide-truth.html#more

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 13, 2012 11:18:15 PM PDT
D. Robinson says:
I read the speech.

If even half of it it true, Britain is in much worse shape than I thought.

Does Britain have anything even resembling the US Bill of Rights?

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 14, 2012 1:11:05 AM PDT
TN says:
They have laws against "hate speech", which apply in practice only against criticism of Islam/Muslims.

In reply to an earlier post on Jul 14, 2012 8:27:13 AM PDT
moslem goon squads were responsible for it
not the average arab guy

Posted on Aug 10, 2012 4:13:43 AM PDT
I think the article is quite correct. I dont think it is in our interest to get involved or take sides to any great degree. Democracy is a foreign concept in the middle east and will not happen anyway. Let them go on killing each other, spending vast sums of money and blood exhausting themselves in religious and ethnic conflicts. It will be interesting to see if there will be a larger confrontation between the Sunni and Shia branches of islam, particularly Iran and Saudi Arabia. It is also in our interests to ween ourselves of middle east oil for 2 reasons. For our own economic independence and control and to deny the large amount of funds generated by oil revenue to the middle east.
Support Israel and the christian populations in the middle east who have been the real losers so far and see which way the chips fall. Remember until oil was found in the middle east, the middle east was just a back water and irrelevant to our needs.
I also think our governments need to be a bit more realistic (sometimes ruthless ) about how things work or dont work over their instead of worrying about human rights and feel good efforts that really do nothing. The UN is irrelevant, corrupt and redundant and should be disbanded.
Just some thoughts!

In reply to an earlier post on Aug 10, 2012 10:47:20 PM PDT
patrick says:
It doesn't help the situation that the our government tolerated and sometimes supported oppressive regimes in the region for our own interests.

What should the West do? Engage with the democratic countries in the region,

there arent any democratic countries as we know them in the region...we might have 'supported oppressive regimes" but the odds on that were always pretty short when there were no non-oppressive regimes to support.Even those hostile to us are still oppressive.
Main reason for that is that any government authority there could or bad, has to bash heads in to hold on to power anyway, Nice Guys just just get eaten up there, as they tended to in Latin America if there were any.

In reply to an earlier post on Aug 10, 2012 10:48:37 PM PDT
patrick says:
yep, yep and yep.

Posted on Aug 10, 2012 10:51:17 PM PDT
patrick says:
they will fail to deliver outcomes, of course, but you shouldnt think that they will either deliver, or get fired, that isnt really necessarily so.

they will just rail against the Zionists and cook lumpheaded Western conspiracy theories to explain failure and malaise away.

a newish book explains just these things:
http://www.angusrobertson.com.au/book/perils-of-self-righteousness-an-anecdotal-evaluation-of-the-muslim-mind-set-a-self-criticism/24560231

Posted on Aug 11, 2012 3:38:21 PM PDT
J. Schwarz says:
Do you think the Muslim Brotherhood will continue to support the treaty with Israel or will Morsi be forced to view Israel as an adversary that he needs to go to war with? He may be pro treaty now but as sure as heck the Muslim Brotherhood has a mind of its own and Jew hate is a major part of it. All it will take is ONE instance where the Israelis are blamed for something and the whole treaty is gone. Will he be able to hold off the majority of his party when they call for renewed Israeli hostility or will he fold to their wishes?

Posted on Aug 11, 2012 8:19:09 PM PDT
patrick says:
I dont think they will go to outright war with them, but the detente cordiale that has been between Egypt/jordan and Israel will probably be steadily eroded away in Egypts case, and maybe even in Jordan as well, as a sate to Islamic uprising there.
Amid much loudspeaker yelling from the Minarets..

In reply to an earlier post on Aug 11, 2012 8:26:42 PM PDT
J. Schwarz says:
Possibly. You can't hold a good hate down, can you? The Arabs hate Jews, and eventually it is going to surface no matter what.

In reply to an earlier post on Aug 11, 2012 8:39:05 PM PDT
Last edited by the author on Aug 11, 2012 8:39:29 PM PDT
patrick says:
it just eludes me why and how to what extent a yelling Mullah is listened to..
there is just something implanted deep there, from an early age..
the low education standards only partly explain it, because its still gets hold of many people with western tertiary educations..

In reply to an earlier post on Aug 11, 2012 8:51:03 PM PDT
Last edited by the author on Aug 11, 2012 9:20:40 PM PDT
J. Schwarz says:
I don't think I mentioned it here, but there is a new post by Nonie Darwish in the American Thinker that you can Google and read. It is her newest post. In it she lays out the reason for the Arab hatred of Jews and how it extends back to the time of Mohammed. It is an excellent article that states Islam must have Jew hate to survive, for without Jew hate Islam would not exist. If you can google it, it will help you to understand the necessity for Muslims to hate Jews. Nonie was a Muslim who moved to Gaza from Egypt and her father was in charge of Gaza for Nassar. Once you read her you will understand why they need to hate. She is trying to bring the truth to the conflict and believes that the Muslims have serious disfunctional issues within that need to be addressed. And since she lived in their society she should know better than us all.
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Discussion in:  History forum
Participants:  25
Total posts:  453
Initial post:  Jul 13, 2012
Latest post:  Jan 10, 2013

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