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The Korean War


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In reply to an earlier post on Dec 9, 2010 3:37:50 AM PST
>>>>if the US doesn't step in, and there is no Great Power War, just a war between China and Formosa (had to do it) then I cannot see how China would lose. <<<<<<

While such a conflict cant be totally excluded I just dont think that is the Chinese modus operandi.

The chinese are not beyond making a show of force, lobbing a few tons of shells or missiles, but they are unlikely to go for a full scale invasion. They would rather try to get Taiwan to "merge" with the motherland in a similar way they did with Hong Kong. Quietly and without too much fuss. It seems to me they use the Taiwan issue primarily against the US when they need to.

It gets down to a shooting contest Taiwan and its ~ 400K army will not go down without a fight. Let's remember that the Chinese were not able to best the vietnamese in their little shooting match... so staging an amphib invasion of Taiwan is not going to be a cake walk.... From the chinese perspective some sort of political solution (perhaps with Taiwan retaning some form of large autonomy) is much preferable

Posted on Dec 9, 2010 10:07:11 AM PST
IGS says:
Guys

China and Taiwan will be unified and without a shot fired. China realizes it, Taiwan realizes it. It is a matter of when and under what conditions. Every Taiwanese citizen I know is aware of this. It is not the cold war any more and as China kicks and drags its way toward something looking like a democracy it will cross a threshold of acceptability that will provide the basis for re-unification. The economic benefits to both sides are simply too great for it to end in any other way.

Posted on Dec 14, 2010 11:16:17 AM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Jul 18, 2011 12:05:16 PM PDT]

In reply to an earlier post on Dec 15, 2010 6:31:56 AM PST
Of all the absurdities you have managed to write this one "Burma goes for India" must take the cake so far (but I am sure you will manage to do better in the future)....

Burma goes for India which has about 30 times its population and 40 times its GDP not to mention fully functionning nuclear weapons and missiles ? I mean while they are it why not take out Thailand and Malaysia as well whilst amphib assaulting Indonesia ?

Okay...And its all the fault of Assange no doubt

In reply to an earlier post on Dec 16, 2010 8:17:08 AM PST
Last edited by the author on Dec 16, 2010 8:19:09 AM PST
Surfin:

I fear that China will never in my lifetime slouch its way to real democracy. (But on the other hand, I never thought the fall of Communism and the Soviet Union would occur in my lifetime either.) But I agree with you that Taiwan will later be absorbed by China and probably peacefully. The economic benefits will trump any misgivings by Taiwan's strong democrats, who I understand are still outnumbered by its luke-warm democrats.

In reply to an earlier post on Dec 16, 2010 11:46:59 AM PST
briefcandle says:
Thom. M says
"It gets down to a shooting contest Taiwan and its ~ 400K army will not go down without a fight. Let's remember that the Chinese were not able to best the vietnamese in their little shooting match... "
.......................................................
The chinese were conducting a punitive war in '79. It may be some embarrassment to them that they took such losses, and they certainly allowed the vietnamese to claim that pound for pound they had outfought the chinese, but in the end china took each of the viet northern provincial capitals, ie achieved their objective prior to withdrawing, and the vietnamese know full well that such victories against a colossus were not sustainable.

Posted on Dec 16, 2010 2:13:41 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Jul 18, 2011 12:05:20 PM PDT]

In reply to an earlier post on Dec 16, 2010 4:17:29 PM PST
Last edited by the author on Dec 16, 2010 4:18:50 PM PST
patrick says:
I only know of one short war in recent history between India and China, early 60s I think, China was basically victorious.

hence India tended to be aligned with Soviet Union as a client (india had Soviet MiG21s as front-line interceptor) while China was greasy with Pakistan ( Pakistan was supplied with Chinese Shenyang MiG19 knock-offs, which apparently proved surprisingly effective in combat although officially an obsolete type)

Posted on Jan 19, 2011 10:57:20 AM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Jul 18, 2011 12:06:32 PM PDT]

In reply to an earlier post on Jan 19, 2011 11:30:00 AM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Feb 23, 2011 8:36:11 AM PST]

Posted on Jan 19, 2011 4:47:40 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Jul 18, 2011 12:06:33 PM PDT]

In reply to an earlier post on Jan 19, 2011 5:09:50 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Feb 23, 2011 8:36:14 AM PST]

In reply to an earlier post on Jan 19, 2011 8:06:58 PM PST
patrick says:
Straight out of a "West Wing "script, isnt it...including the downplaying of it.

Posted on Jan 21, 2011 8:20:24 AM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Jul 18, 2011 12:06:35 PM PDT]

In reply to an earlier post on Jan 21, 2011 11:03:42 AM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Jun 21, 2011 8:40:58 AM PDT]

Posted on Jan 26, 2011 7:29:30 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Jul 18, 2011 12:06:42 PM PDT]

Posted on Jan 29, 2011 12:37:01 AM PST
patrick says:
the Spratlys theyve always had their eyes on as potential oil islands..

anything else, they obviously just think theyre 1.2 billion people, theyre gonna need MORE of every kind of STUFF, and some of it they will buy, some they will just take, and whos gonna stop em..

In reply to an earlier post on Jan 31, 2011 8:20:12 AM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Jun 21, 2011 8:41:09 AM PDT]

In reply to an earlier post on Jan 31, 2011 10:35:44 AM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Feb 23, 2011 8:37:54 AM PST]

In reply to an earlier post on Jan 31, 2011 12:01:33 PM PST
Last edited by the author on Jan 31, 2011 12:02:01 PM PST
IGS says:
Graves

Sadly. I think you are right. I have thought so for over two decades now. The US military sees it the same way. I think that the rest of the leadership does not (the political and financial sectors) despite what we see in front of our very eyes. I think by the time the naives get into the game ... it will too late. I only hope I am wrong. On the bright side, right next door to the Chinese are 1 billion Indians. Sadly, we are in Afghanistan (a worthless place that does not matter) and cozying up to the Indians arch enemy, Pakistan. Somebody better get smart, and in a hurry.

But, Graves, your point is a good one. Call me paranoid. But I have read of the Great Game.

Posted on Jan 31, 2011 12:58:04 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Jul 18, 2011 12:06:53 PM PDT]

In reply to an earlier post on Jan 31, 2011 2:05:52 PM PST
[Deleted by Amazon on Jun 21, 2011 8:41:11 AM PDT]
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This discussion

Discussion in:  History forum
Participants:  13
Total posts:  97
Initial post:  Nov 24, 2010
Latest post:  Jan 31, 2011

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