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Customer Discussions > Politics forum

Intrade Has Obama Up Another 2.7% At 68.5% - Romney Is Down 2.8% To 31.6%


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Showing 1-25 of 73 posts in this discussion
Initial post: Nov 5, 2012 4:46:12 AM PST
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/

I will be so glad when we can close the lid on this chapter of American history and say good bye and good riddance to Romney, all his followers, all of his lies, and all of his bargains with big money.

I will be so glad when Americans prove that you can't just buy an election.

I will also be glad to know that the Supreme Court won't be stacked with even more republican idiots trying to outlaw abortion, give free reign to corporations, and gut social protections.

Good riddance Mitt. Good riddance.

Posted on Nov 5, 2012 5:07:40 AM PST
Intrade Has Obama Up Another 2.7% At 68.5% - Romney Is Down 2.8% To 31.6%

http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/

Read it and weep, no voters.

Posted on Nov 5, 2012 5:32:27 AM PST
The only sad thing will be watching Scalia actively decompose on the bench, as there's no way he'll willingly retire in the next 4 years.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 5:35:07 AM PST
Rhea D. says:
Oh, man, that would be a great Halloween costume next year: Scalia, the Zombie Justice.

Couldn't be as scary as the real thing though.

Posted on Nov 5, 2012 6:36:34 AM PST
Instatrade is a bunch of people relying on cooked polls like this:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2012/images/11/04/top16.pdf

D+11!!!!!!!!!!!!!! And Prezzy "O" only managers a tie???

Geez but you Proggie haters are toast tomorrow. And you don't even see it coming.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 6:42:48 AM PST
electronics guy says:
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/
=================
got an american equivalent for intrade?

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 7:53:33 AM PST
big whoop

the DNC is putting in money trying to fool people

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:32:14 AM PST
"Instatrade is a bunch of people relying on cooked polls like this:"

I crack up every time I see the wingnuts cry about cooked polls. Read the methodology page. Check up on the standards of practice that publically acceptable polls have to follow to be taken seriously. Why do people think that a "D+11" poll (or a D+3, or a R+6, etc.) means that's how that particular poll was weighted or adjusted? That's simply how that polled sample of people self-identified.

The largest adjustment/weight that pollsters give their polls is likely v. unlikely voters. Rasmussen produces more conservative-friendly polls simply because he has a pretty strict definition of "likely". It's not a big secret that Republicans turn out to vote in greater percentages than Democrats, but it's also not a secret that there are more registered Democrats. Additionally, self-identified Democrats are more likely to vote across parties - because there are more external factors that lend themselves to having registered as such (i.e. union membership, more Democratic groups engage in voter registration, etc.).

Seriously - sign up for a statistics course some time. You might actually learn something.

Posted on Nov 5, 2012 8:33:45 AM PST
This puts a Randian like Paul Ryan in a deep dilema...bet on Mitt or Obama...go campaign for old seat? Spend all time with Mitt?

Posted on Nov 5, 2012 8:36:46 AM PST
>>"Why do people think that a "D+11" poll (or a D+3, or a R+6, etc.) means that's how that particular poll was weighted or adjusted? That's simply how that polled sample of people self-identified."<<

Nice try knuclehead. Here's a clue = Dems vote for Dems and Repubs vote for Repubs so oversampling Dems leads to absurd outcomes.

You'll see what I mean come tomorrow.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:38:51 AM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 5, 2012 8:39:10 AM PST
Yawns - its random sampling and people self identify. Its been proven that more people will identify with the party they are voting for even if that is not their actual registered party.

The LV models are than an attempt to normalize results.

Noone is oversampling - claiming all the major pollsters are doing it is just naive.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:40:50 AM PST
And if you are wrong we will never see you post here again...

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:42:09 AM PST
"Dems vote for Dems and Repubs vote for Repubs"

Uh - no, they don't - not always. There's plenty of cross-party voting in every election. Take a look at 1980 if you want the perfect example. (Or 1972 as well.)

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:42:41 AM PST
Romney isn't Reagan...

Posted on Nov 5, 2012 8:43:55 AM PST
>"Noone is oversampling - claiming all the major pollsters are doing it is just naive."<

Yea, sure. No one oversamples. They do under sample however.

Enjoy your cocoon for the next 36 hours.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:44:49 AM PST
"Romney isn't Reagan..."

No, I didn't say he was. I simply pointed to 1980 as an excellent example of the fact that people vote against their party all the time.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:45:18 AM PST
Ze'ev says:
Good luck hope you don't bet your life savings.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:45:24 AM PST
"No one oversamples. They do under sample however."

You have no idea what you're talking about, and the more you talk, the further you dig yourself in the ground. Maybe try digging up for a change of pace?

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:45:37 AM PST
yes...

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:48:04 AM PST
VicAriel says:
I guess the online betting sites are relying on "crooked polls" as well. Their odds change based on which candidate is attracting the most cash bets. Bets on Obama have moved up steadily in the past 10 days and now favor him by an AVERAGE of 5 to 1. People who place cash bets online generally do so with information that goes beyond a gut feel and looking at a couple "crooked polls".

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 8:49:07 AM PST
Ze'ev says:
It's obvious you must be quite young because 1980 and before the Democrat party had a double digit party ID, it was only after 1980 that the two parties became about even ( D+3)

Posted on Nov 5, 2012 8:51:40 AM PST
>>"You have no idea what you're talking about,.."<<

You only THINK you do. And coming from you that's a compliment.

Posted on Nov 5, 2012 8:53:10 AM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 5, 2012 8:54:38 AM PST
>>" People who place cash bets online generally do so with information that goes beyond a gut feel and looking at a couple "crooked polls"."<<

...and when it comes to politics you know this how exactly? Oh yea, you just made that up. Sigh.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 9:03:25 AM PST
"1980 and before the Democrat party had a double digit party ID, it was only after 1980 that the two parties became about even ( D+3)"

Nothing in this statement contradicts anything I've said. Do you have a point?

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 5, 2012 9:37:34 AM PST
Rhea D. says:
I'm thinking that it's the Republican Superpac money that is going in to artificially inflate Romney's numbers. The Republicans are the ones with so much money that they can't find a way to spend it.

Romney should actually be around 24%. But who is counting?
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Discussion in:  Politics forum
Participants:  21
Total posts:  73
Initial post:  Nov 5, 2012
Latest post:  Nov 6, 2012

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