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OT: Yay Gridlock


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Showing 1-25 of 40 posts in this discussion
Initial post: Nov 7, 2012 6:01:07 AM PST
D_Strasse says:
A thread for gloating, grumbling and otherwise talking about last night's results.

I'm bummed. 'Nuff said.

Posted on Nov 7, 2012 6:02:07 AM PST
BALLS! I thought this said Grimlock.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:03:11 AM PST
D_Strasse says:
Haha, Looking forward to both a BF deal on WfC and the release of the Grimlock figure in Jan.

Posted on Nov 7, 2012 6:03:37 AM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 7, 2012 6:04:12 AM PST
Legend of Grimrock?

http://store.steampowered.com/app/207170/

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:04:43 AM PST
JWK says:
I'm just interested to hear who's fault the sluggish economy is going to be for the *next* four years. Maybe it will be Polk's fault this time.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:05:14 AM PST
FOGE says:
Im sure it will be just like the last 4 years. Its all Bush's fault.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:05:15 AM PST
What an AMAZING game that is.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:06:13 AM PST
JWK says:
Hasn't he run that well dry?

Posted on Nov 7, 2012 6:07:57 AM PST
I'm okay with political gridlock. The Democrats and Republicans are hell bent on ruining the country. I'd much rather see them fight each other instead of continuing to rape the citizens.

Posted on Nov 7, 2012 6:08:47 AM PST
D_Strasse says:
Honestly, I'm just surprised the estimates for the election makeup looking so much like 2008 were right. Stunned actually - I thought that was a "wave" electorate. Wow, was I wrong.

Posted on Nov 7, 2012 6:10:34 AM PST
Hey! This thread has nothing to do with the morning commute.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:11:23 AM PST
FOGE says:
I would think so, but Im sure if Obama cant turn things around, people will say its Bush's fault just like they did the last 4 years.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:11:47 AM PST
FOGE says:
Haha thats what I thought it was about too.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:35:32 AM PST
That Emu Kid says:
Sitting in traffic is turrible, just turrible. Especially if you drive a manual.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:37:37 AM PST
D_Strasse says:
When we bought the van, we got rid of the last manual car. Sucks because I only drove standards up to that point.

Going to buy a car in the spring - hopefully I can find a manual that suits my needs.

Posted on Nov 7, 2012 6:39:33 AM PST
That Emu Kid says:
So how about all those hippies in Colorado?

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:40:16 AM PST
Soon all the hippies will really have an understand of the differences in state and federal law.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:40:41 AM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 7, 2012 6:41:09 AM PST
D_Strasse says:
Pretty insane - still needs to square with fed law, so that'll be interesting to watch.

Edit: Hemp'ja'd

Posted on Nov 7, 2012 6:41:27 AM PST
IPhantom says:
538 blog pretty much nailed it. This is why facts/numbers/math actually matter. I was shocked by how many conservatives thought this was going to be a nailbiter. I thought it'd be called before ten. I was about half an hour off.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:42:44 AM PST
Check out todays xkcd. It's simply titled "math"

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:43:45 AM PST
That Emu Kid says:
Still represents a huge shift in perception, though. It's more symbolic at this point due to all the other technicalities, but I still think it's pretty exciting.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:44:45 AM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 7, 2012 6:46:55 AM PST
D_Strasse says:
Ughh.

Nate explained why it "could" be different. It all has to do with the in-house model builds and electorate expectations which Nate didn't/doesn't account for. Pretty simple in that the National and State polls were saying two different things and that they COULD NOT be reconciled with any amount of "math".

It boils down quite simply to whose electorate models were right and Nate believed in the state models. That is now proven to have been the right call but that isn't "math" - that's putting your chips on red and winning.

tl:dr - Good models can't account for bad assumptions in the raw data.

Posted on Nov 7, 2012 6:45:32 AM PST
IPhantom says:
Gay marriage passed in Maine and Maryland too on ballet initiatives, breaking something like a 35 straight losing streak

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:47:22 AM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 7, 2012 6:49:09 AM PST
IPhantom says:
No, it isn't. That national polls do not matter. The popular vote does not matter. There is no reconciliation that has to matter. The electorial college matters. Math matters.

Ughhh

edit: by the way, he addressed what you are saying in his blog yesterday. He goes into quite a bit of detail about assumptions.

In reply to an earlier post on Nov 7, 2012 6:51:43 AM PST
Last edited by the author on Nov 7, 2012 6:53:53 AM PST
D_Strasse says:
You clearly don't know what you're talking about.

This ISN'T about the electoral college. It is about whether state polls and their inherent assumptions were more accurate than National polls and theirs. Both had reasons to believe they were accurate and the simple fact is that they were saying different things about the nature of teh race and the electorate.

Nate specifically said this and said that he based his models on the state polls. He also acknowledged that they could be systemically off and that would give a bad result. This isn't about math - it's about understanding the nature of polling, it's assumptions and it's limitations.

Edit: Nate's a smart guy and he knows statistics but that isn't the same thing as actually polling and understanding poll construction/bias/limitations.
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Discussion in:  Video Games forum
Participants:  12
Total posts:  40
Initial post:  Nov 7, 2012
Latest post:  Nov 7, 2012

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