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Thinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-Makers 1st Edition

by Richard E. Neustadt (Author), Ernest R. May (Author)
4.4 out of 5 stars 25 customer reviews
ISBN-13: 978-0029227916
ISBN-10: 0029227917
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Product Details

  • Paperback: 352 pages
  • Publisher: Free Press; 1 edition (January 25, 1988)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0029227917
  • ISBN-13: 978-0029227916
  • Product Dimensions: 6 x 0.9 x 9.2 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 13.6 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.4 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (25 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #72,805 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 starsClever, Useful Guide to Presenting Intelligence to Policy
By Robert David STEELE Vivas HALL OF FAMETOP 1000 REVIEWER on April 7, 2000
Format: Paperback
This book is an essential point of reference for understanding the analogies and other devices that decision makers use to evaluate information.
The bottom line is both straight-forward and scary: policymakers see everything in terms of their own (usually limited and largely domestic) historical experiences, and they interpret what they are given by intelligence professionals in the context of their own personal perspectives.
This has several implications, and I regard this book as one of perhaps five that are long-term essential building blocks for the new craft of analytic tradecraft being devised by the CIA's Kent Center and Jack Davis:
1) Intelligence is remedial education for policymakers. There is no getting around this. While the authors are much more diplomatic than I could ever be, the raw fact is that most policy makers are very loosely-educated and generally do not have a high-quality international affairs education or substantive experience dealing with foreign affairs or even national affairs. They are local lawyers, businessmen, "friends of the President," etcetera.
2) Objective, internationalist intelligence will always be in conflict with subjective, domestic politics unless--and this is the other new theme just now emerging, years after the author's published their work--there is a public intelligence community and the citizen-voters are receiving sufficiently compelling intelligence they can use to demand and vote for early and thoughtful action instead of in extremis reaction.Read more ›
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4.0 out of 5 stars4.5 stars - great primer for historical application in decision making
By David C. Leaumont on May 9, 2010
Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
This book was our second in a voluntary squadron book club led by our commander in hopes of developing us into effective leaders as we move through the ranks.

I would like to give this book 4.5 stars; however, am limited to 4 or 5.

The authors are both noted scholars and advisors. The late (2001) Richard Neustadt taught at Columbia where he wrote the very influential "Presidential Power." Prior to this, he served as advisor to Pres. Truman, and afterward, he advised Presidents Kennedy, Johnson and Clinton. The late (2009) Ernest May taught at Harvard for 55 years and authored many historical analyses of WWI and WWII.

This book does not serve as a history book, but as a book on how to use history. The premise of the book is that certain tools can be inserted into analytical processes to increase (even in small increments) the effectiveness or success of a decision. The authors propose several mini techniques to facilitate their purpose. These methods are the fruit of several years worth of classes taught by the authors at Harvard. The authors use their insight into events surrounding presidential decisions and crises and look at the use of history in their decisions. Firsthand accounts, biographies and official documents provide further views into the decision processes the authors consulted. Then the authors show where the decision makers could have used history more effectively to come to better conclusions. The Bay of Pigs, The Americanization of the Vietnam War, the Cambodian capture of SS Mayaguez, SALT II treaty, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and even the reparation of Social Security by Reagan. In these, little political bias shines through.

The authors differentiate between effective use and common use of history.Read more ›
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5.0 out of 5 starsThe only book on learning from history
By Stewart Brand on August 23, 1998
Format: Paperback
The authors teach a highly influential course, "Reasoning from History" at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. The book has great case studies of real decisions based, sometimes well, sometimes badly, on historical precedent. A wonderful book.
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5.0 out of 5 starsDecision-making Sensibly Systematized
By Philip Vassallo on March 4, 2012
Format: Paperback
At the heart of "Thinking in Time" is what decision-makers all too often disregard: the lessons of history. Richard E. Neustdat and Ernest R. May use diverse examples from political, economic, and military landmark events to show successes when leaders use the deceptively simple decision-making system described in the book. The authors assess how President John F. Kennedy recovered from the Bay of Pigs fiasco by choosing a different approach in successfully dealing with the Cuban missile crisis, and how President Ronald Reagan was able to achieve what his predecessors were not in sustaining the Social Security program through bipartisan support. Many other illustrative cases are detailed masterfully to prove that better decision-making should draw from history to frame precise questions that will lead to developing a formidable strategy.

The first step in comparing a present challenge with past ones, according to the authors, is to list the known, unclear, and presumed elements. This task alone will engage the management team in addressing the fundamental issue at hand, appraising the ultimate concerns, and placing events on a timeline to determine likely outcomes.

This book is a key resource for political and military leaders but also for business executives who, in dealing with a constant barrage of immediate problems, need a practical means to generate far-sighted thinking.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 starsFive Stars

A very useful account of real world samples of time critical decisions strategies. Worth a careful look.

Published 3 months ago by Ramon Antonio
3.0 out of 5 starsOnly problem I had with this product, is it's ...

Only problem I had with this product, is it's lack of speech enablement. This is due to the publisher's reluctance to do so. No doubt because it is a college level text book. Read more

Published 3 months ago by Amazon Customer
5.0 out of 5 starsWhen in command, decision making in politics is very ...

When in command, decision making in politics is very complex. This book explains how some decisions came about, some successful and others no so.

Published 7 months ago by Roger Johnson
5.0 out of 5 starsTwo Historians provide a great read !!!

This is a great read with many thought provoking details and orientations. I highly recommend this read by two noted Historians !!!!

Published 14 months ago by Robert Allen
5.0 out of 5 starsClassic for policy wonks and historians

A classic book for policy wonks. How to use history to develop good public policy and infer the likely future. Many good tools and case examples. Read more

Published 15 months ago by Steve NC
4.0 out of 5 starsFour Stars

satisfied

Published 18 months ago by Kingsford Mukuru
3.0 out of 5 starsGreat title, fair book

It doesn't quite live up to the many dimensions of its provocative title.

Published 18 months ago by Dr. John Urquhart
5.0 out of 5 starsthis is an awesome book that you will read time and again

this is an awesome book that you will read time and again. It's just so beautifully thought out, it is amazing.

Published 21 months ago by Priscilla Paleologos
5.0 out of 5 starsExcellent work for those interested In History and its uses in...

The book describe how the clients of the intelligence community use history to support and make decisions. Read more

Published on May 10, 2013 by Mario Eybers
5.0 out of 5 starsReflections in History's Mirror

Created for their single semester Harvard course for training political decision makers, authors Neustadt and May's historiography focuses on a several recent American turning... Read more

Published on September 4, 2012 by L. King

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