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7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century Hardcover – January 27, 2009

by Andrew Krepinevich (Author)
4.2 out of 5 stars 40 customer reviews
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Product Details

  • Hardcover: 352 pages
  • Publisher: Bantam; 1st edition (January 27, 2009)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0553805398
  • ISBN-13: 978-0553805390
  • Product Dimensions: 6.4 x 1.2 x 9.3 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.2 pounds
  • Average Customer Review: 4.2 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (40 customer reviews)
  • Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #728,305 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

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Customer Reviews

Top Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 starsThis book should scare the &#^$* out of you...
By Daimion on March 31, 2010
Format: Hardcover
Unless you are not planning to be around in a few years, this book should scare the $#!&@ out of you. Why you ask? Is it about graphic violence and torture? No. Is it about Monsters and Demons? No. Is it about the end of the world? Well - maybe.

"7 Deadly Scenarios" is not a "story" book per se. It's an exposition on seven possible scenarios that could confront the US and our military in the not too distant future. It's written by Andrew F. Krepinevich, president of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He's also a distinguished visiting professor at George Mason University's School of Public Policy. He served for 21 years in the Army and has a PhD from Harvard. You could say that he knows his stuff.

I won't dive deep in to the scenarios themselves - I'll leave those for you to read - but here is a tease:

- What would happen is Pakistan collapsed and their nukes fell in to rouge hands?
- How would we react if terrorist where able to detonate a series of nuclear bombs in major American cities?
- Could we maintain order and civility if America were hit with a pandemic illness, much like the last great flu pandemic in 1918?
- If the Middle East finally dissolved in to open warfare, and Iran pledged nuclear attack on Israel - would we come to their aid?
- In a conflict over Taiwan, how would China use cyber warfare and asymmetrical force to counteract US military might?
- If Muslin extremists disrupted global shipping lanes and oil delivery - could the world economy survive?
- If we pull out of Iraq, would it create a power vacuum ready to be filled by Muslim extremists, Iran, Russia, or even China?

All of the scenarios are eerily plausible, and written in a style that could have come straight from a news report, five years in the future. They make you stop and think - are we ready for what could be coming our way?
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4.0 out of 5 starsA scary but necessary reminder of our mortality
By G. Prout on January 17, 2016
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
I had to read this about a year ago for a Political Science class I took and amazingly enough I still remember it and that is because the scenarios were that good. The book shows some of the largest or more likely security threats facing America and the world and how easily they could lead to our undoing. I sincerely hope that policymakers take these kinds of threats seriously and have contingency plans in place to keep us safe from them.
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5.0 out of 5 starsDisturbing But Essential Reading
By Chet Nagle on October 27, 2013
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
This fascinating book was published in February 2009. The premise is simple: strategists, analysts, and planners can benefit from scenarios based on fact, set in a distant future timeframe. Based on that premise the author created seven scenarios out of hundreds of possibilities. He chose well. One scenario he wrote in 2009 has even come to pass: "Who Lost Iraq?" (It could easily be updated as: "Who Lost Afghanistan?") Other scenarios are pregnant with future realization. They include: "The Collapse of Pakistan," and, "Armageddon: The Assault on Israel." One of the scenarios is particularly troubling. It is simply titled, "Pandemic." In that scenario the author describes the spread of a pandemic virus that crosses our open borders and creates chaos. This is not a book that predicts a doomsday for the United States or the world and, in fact, ends with a call to action. This is an important book for those who think they understand the word `strategy,' including military planners, business planners, and politicians. It is also an important book for thinkers like you and me. Read it! (You will want to have a hardback copy in your library because you will return to it often.)Iran Covenant
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5.0 out of 5 starsA comprehensive look at threats in the near future
By Juan Vitali on March 20, 2013
Format: Kindle Edition
Krepinevich addresses scenarios that are only talked about and seldom discussed in detail in the Pentagon. Most of the scenarios are addressed in the latest DoD strategy papers. However, some are not.
In light of sequestration, and the maddening emphasis on cutting defense, the book seems incomplete without a resourcing Analysis, including trade offs that will need to be made to reduCe the budget deficit and eventually the debt. Otherwise, this is an excellent resource on strategic thinking for the defense of our country. It is incisive and eye opening. Highly recommend it. (Submitted by a current student of NDU).
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4.0 out of 5 starsIntelligent and good estimation of what is coming
By Christopher Corson on March 12, 2013
Format: Kindle Edition Verified Purchase
The advantage of history to look back and see the trends of the past and how they impacted the developments that actually did happen.

This book does a good job of projecting present developments onto the near and medium term future.
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5.0 out of 5 starsClarion Call
By Charles Drobny on March 31, 2009
Format: Hardcover Verified Purchase
7 Deadly Scenarios is a logically presented, well written and nicely crafted wake up call for the defense establishment and the Nation. Krepinevich uses history to illustrate how ill prepared we are for the next likely conflict. The scenarios are as believable as they are horrific both in the scope of the threats and our inability to parry them effectively. It is not hard to imagine a few million Mexicans fleeing a pandemic and streaming unchallenged across the Rio Grande. The circumstances leading to each are believable, appropriately documented and accurately portrayed. A smuggled nuke explodes in San Antonio and paralyzes first responders across Texas.

The narratives read like a newspaper account should - factual and devoid of commentary or political agenda. The writing style oscillates between scholarly presentation and captivating contemporary thriller. As a reader you get scared by the threats, alarmed by the facts and enthralled by the projections.

These are not pie-in-the-sky scare tactics by some minor novelist stacking assumption upon nonsense. Krepinevich is a strategic insider who knows the players; but unlike much of what comes out of Washington, he writes without ideological agenda. He lines up his facts and presents them constantly whether meshed into the narratives or included in the ubiquitous footnotes. Unlike most of the bias that comes out of Washington this author has no deep agenda other than the security and prosperity of the United States. His purpose is as clarion call to warn us to action out of our insistence on preparing for the last conflict not the one we'll surely face.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

3.0 out of 5 starsThree Stars

Seemed like it was more concerned with political agenda then 7 future scenarios, which is what I was expecting.

Published 6 months ago by RKM
3.0 out of 5 starsSometimes a deadly book

This is not so easy a book to rate. The writing is so-so, sometimes good and sometimes not so good. The seven deadly scenarios are not necessarily deadly; it seems to me that the... Read more

Published 14 months ago by lyndonbrecht
5.0 out of 5 starsGreat book! I used to for discussion at my ...

Great book! I used to for discussion at my Emergency Mgt class and it was great!

Published 16 months ago by M
4.0 out of 5 starsIf you are in politics or the military, this should be mandatory...

The author uses a lot of footnotes, which at times can be a little confusing as ones starting in late 2008 become fictional to add to the narrative. Read more

Published 17 months ago by TpC
5.0 out of 5 starsExactly what I expected

I cant put it down, this was as expected a shocking and well written manuscript. I suggest it to anyone who is concerned about what is happening in the world to day regarding... Read more

Published 20 months ago by Far and Away
4.0 out of 5 starsInteresting read

A thought provoking book, with different scenarios of varying likelihood. Well worth the time for anyone interested in military history, strategic thinking, wargames and even role... Read more

Published on February 10, 2014 by Jorge Dengo Garron
5.0 out of 5 starsFailure to plan is planning to fail!

This book is scary, but good scary. It sets out 7 scenarios that that are possible to occur to upset not only America but the world. Read more

Published on September 27, 2013 by Rene Ramirez
5.0 out of 5 starsseven deadly scenario

Great book. Must read for scervice members. This book brings to light things that are not thought of. It is worth the read. Not as dry as art of war.

Published on February 14, 2013 by jackyl
5.0 out of 5 starsMust read

This was an outstanding book. It should be read by military and first responders. Good for NCO and officers in all positions.

Published on January 22, 2013 by Kurt

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