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Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (Paperback)

~ (Editor), Paul Slovic (Editor), (Editor) "Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory (z = 2.23, p < .05,..." (more)
Key Phrases: percentile grade point average, biopsy threshold, surprise indices, New York City, University of Oregon, American Psychological Association (more...)
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Editorial Reviews

Review

"The papers chosen for this volume are an excellent collection, generally well-written and fascinating." Journal of Economic Literature

"The examples are lively, the style is engaging, and it is as entertaining as it is enlightening." Times Literary Supplement

"...an important and well-written book." Journal of the American Statistical Association

"...a good collection of papers on an important topic." Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology

"Clearly, this is an important book. Anyone who undertakes judgment and decision research should own it." Contemporary Psychology


Product Description

The thirty-five chapters in this book describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Individual chapters discuss the representativeness and availability heuristics, problems in judging covariation and control, overconfidence, multistage inference, social perception, medical diagnosis, risk perception, and methods for correcting and improving judgments under uncertainty. About half of the chapters are edited versions of classic articles; the remaining chapters are newly written for this book. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas of research and application rather than describing single experimental studies. This book will be useful to a wide range of students and researchers, as well as to decision makers seeking to gain insight into their judgments and to improve them.
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Product Details

  • Paperback: 544 pages
  • Publisher: Cambridge University Press; 1 edition (April 30, 1982)
  • Language: English
  • ISBN-10: 0521284147
  • ISBN-13: 978-0521284141
  • Product Dimensions: 8.9 x 5.8 x 0.9 inches
  • Shipping Weight: 1.5 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
  • Average Customer Review: 4.6 out of 5 stars  See all reviews (7 customer reviews)
  • Amazon.com Sales Rank: #117,174 in Books (See Bestsellers in Books)

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More About the Authors

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Daniel Kahneman
Daniel Kahneman
Amos Tversky
Amos Tversky

Front Cover | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
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"Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 subjects, and have obtained a significant result which confirms your theory (z = 2.23, p < .05, two-tailed). Read the first page
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percentile grade point average, biopsy threshold, surprise indices, causal base rate, addict theft, five fractiles, proper linear model, incidental base rate, covariation estimates, debiasing efforts, subjective sampling distributions, extreme fractiles, retrospective accuracy, regressive prediction, positive hit rate, multistage inference, fractile method, stopping effectiveness, local representativeness, surprise index, covariation assessment, conjunction effect, singular information, consensus information, graduate specialization
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New York City, University of Oregon, American Psychological Association, Stanford University, United States, Staël von Holstein, Ivy League, Method Subjects, Saudi Arabia, Three Mile Island, University of Illinois, University of Michigan, Office of Naval Research, Reactor Safety Study, World War, Yale University, Academic Press, Archives of Surgery, Harvard Business School, Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Puerto Rican, West Bank
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Customer Reviews

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32 of 35 people found the following review helpful:
4.0 out of 5 stars Our biases over-ride our rational appraisal. An important volume from Kahneman and Tversky., January 10, 2006
In this volume Daniel Kahneman and the late Amos Tversky gathered together 35 authoritative papers that demonstrate through well-designed experiments and through observation the hard-wired biases and heuristics that influence (or define) the way humans go about making choices when the outcomes are from certain.

There are a raft of biases, and just one example is the Anchoring Effect. If you asked 100 people to guess the population of Turkey, what you'd probably get is a wide range of answers. If you broke the question into two parts: first by asking whether the population is higher or lower than 14 million - and then by asking the respondents to guess the population - you'd find that the answers would gravitate around our arbitrary 14 million mark.

The Heuristics we use to weigh up and evaluate data provide a second family of biases. Here, the human brain is shown to go about problem evaluation along certain pathways and shortcuts, and the route we take tends to define where we'll emerge. By way of example, we tend to give undue weight to highly retrievable or available data: and treat this as representative. So in the wake of Katrina, you or I would be fairly excused for judging 2005 as a particularly bad year for global weather-related disasters. In probability, 2005 was not particularly unusual on a global scale.

This volume is an important collection of papers, with relevance to anyone working in fields where decision-making is at the core. You might be in market research, medicine, social sciences, economics or other fields: this book contains material of direct relevance to your work. The conclusions from the papers range from disturbing (the judgments of professional medical and psychological experts, we see, can be alarmingly biased!) through to illuminating.

Just as gamblers feel sure that after throwing six heads in a row, the coin is "overdue" to throw tails (as if coins have a memory) even professionals have an amazing propensity to run roughshod over their own understanding of probability.

This book makes for serious reading and delivers good value. It makes an absorbing, more focused twin-volume with CHOICES, VALUES & FRAMES which I'd say, however, is a more important book that encompasses much of the thinking here. I've take a star off here because some papers are written not in plain English but rather in densely mathematical language. I work in statistics, but our English language is quite adequate for the task of telling the story, isn't it? For this reason readers of this volume will appreciate the incredibly readable, yet hugely informative, volume "The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making" by Scott Plous. I refer frequently to both these volumes and find both extremely useful.



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38 of 43 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars my humble opinion, April 27, 2004
By Tyler Markowsky (Winnipeg, Manitoba Canada) - See all my reviews
(REAL NAME)   
Of course, my humble opinion relative to Nobel award committee will hold little intrinsic value, other than a layman's interpretation and application.

An economist myself, I found this book very interesting and educational to read. Although the book is quite verbose, the fluidity and organization of the content facilitates a smooth read - not a bludgeoning of the mind.

I found this book particularly applicable to research in market behavior, systemic analysis (because this book outlines the individuals and how they act within the system); even policy development (uncertainty).

I would recommend this book to anyone interested in psychology, social psychology, economics, policy, and politics.

Regards,
Tyler Markowsky

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76 of 95 people found the following review helpful:
5.0 out of 5 stars This is the best book I've ever seen about probability., October 20, 1998
By A Customer
I've never seen better explanations of how probabilities should be calculated. And the book is fascinating -- especially what the authors describe about the results of surveys designed to reveal the most common mistakes people make when estimating probabilities.
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Most Recent Customer Reviews

5.0 out of 5 stars A must read for the thinking person...
...and especially for the non-thinking person! This book, a popular classic for the past 25 years, opened my eyes to the prevalence and scope of biases in our thinking. Read more
Published 23 days ago by Kiran Garimella

4.0 out of 5 stars Genius--but the writing!
Before seeing this collection, I had been excited by what I knew of these researchers' work in uncovering surprising aspects of human decision-making. Read more
Published 10 months ago by Roland B. Stark

5.0 out of 5 stars heuristics!
We read this book in our microeconomics and public policy class. What Kahnemann and Tversky add to the understanding of human bias and misjudgment is quintessential.
Published 19 months ago by Peter Manda

4.0 out of 5 stars Prospect theory is a subset of Keynes's theory of probability
The essays contained in this book show convincingly that the standard decision theoretic model taught world wide since the mid 1940's,the subjective expected utility... Read more
Published on October 9, 2005 by Michael Emmett Brady

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