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Editorial Reviews
Review
"... the best lesson of Tetlock's book may be the one that he seems most reluctant to draw: Think for yourself". -- Louis Menand, The New Yorker
"He discovered that the accuracy of an expert's predictions decreased the greater the person's self-confidence, celebrity and depth of knowledge" -- Michael Kesterton, The Globe & Mail
"Tetlock demonstrates in meticulous academic detail that most expert forecasters are no better than the rest of us". -- James Harkin, The Guardian
"Tetlock discovered that specialists were no more reliable than non-specialists at guessing what is liable to happen next". -- Stephen McGinty, The Scotsman
"Tetlock dismisses the comforting notion that public life is 'a marketplace of ideas". -- Nick Cohen, The Observer
"Tetlock's findings are disconsoling for anyone who believes that expertise confers reliable forecasting powers. -- Paul Monk, Financial Review
"The bottom line is that experts are no better at making predictions than dart-throwing monkeys". -- Ellen Goodman, The Boston Globe
"The results of his painstaking research are complex, nuanced, and contingent". -- John T. Jost, Science
"You have been a world-class sap for years. Why? For listening to the economic and political forecasts of experts". -- Geoffrey Colvin, Fortune
"He discovered that the accuracy of an expert's predictions decreased the greater the person's self-confidence, celebrity and depth of knowledge" -- Michael Kesterton, The Globe & Mail
"Tetlock demonstrates in meticulous academic detail that most expert forecasters are no better than the rest of us". -- James Harkin, The Guardian
"Tetlock discovered that specialists were no more reliable than non-specialists at guessing what is liable to happen next". -- Stephen McGinty, The Scotsman
"Tetlock dismisses the comforting notion that public life is 'a marketplace of ideas". -- Nick Cohen, The Observer
"Tetlock's findings are disconsoling for anyone who believes that expertise confers reliable forecasting powers. -- Paul Monk, Financial Review
"The bottom line is that experts are no better at making predictions than dart-throwing monkeys". -- Ellen Goodman, The Boston Globe
"The results of his painstaking research are complex, nuanced, and contingent". -- John T. Jost, Science
"You have been a world-class sap for years. Why? For listening to the economic and political forecasts of experts". -- Geoffrey Colvin, Fortune
Review
It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book . . . that people who make prediction their business--people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables--are no better than the rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. . . . It would be nice if there were fewer partisans on television disguised as "analysts" and "experts". . . . But the best lesson of Tetlock's book may be the one that he seems most reluctant to draw: Think for yourself.
(Louis Menand The New Yorker )
Before anyone turns an ear to the panels of pundits, they might do well to obtain a copy of Phillip Tetlock's new book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? The Berkeley psychiatrist has apparently made a 20-year study of predictions by the sorts who appear as experts on TV and get quoted in newspapers and found that they are no better than the rest of us at prognostication.
(Jim Coyle Toronto Star )
Tetlock uses science and policy to brilliantly explore what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and to examine why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
(Choice )
[This] book . . . Marshals powerful evidence to make [its] case. Expert Political Judgment . . . Summarizes the results of a truly amazing research project. . . . The question that screams out from the data is why the world keeps believing that "experts" exist at all.
(Geoffrey Colvin Fortune )
Philip Tetlock has just produced a study which suggests we should view expertise in political forecasting--by academics or intelligence analysts, independent pundits, journalists or institutional specialists--with the same skepticism that the well-informed now apply to stockmarket forecasting. . . . It is the scientific spirit with which he tackled his project that is the most notable thing about his book, but the findings of his inquiry are important and, for both reasons, everyone seriously concerned with forecasting, political risk, strategic analysis and public policy debate would do well to read the book.
(Paul Monk Australian Financial Review )
Phillip E. Tetlock does a remarkable job . . . applying the high-end statistical and methodological tools of social science to the alchemistic world of the political prognosticator. The result is a fascinating blend of science and storytelling, in the the best sense of both words.
(William D. Crano PsysCRITIQUES )
Mr. Tetlock's analysis is about political judgment but equally relevant to economic and commercial assessments.
(John Kay Financial Times )
Why do most political experts prove to be wrong most of time? For an answer, you might want to browse through a very fascinating study by Philip Tetlock . . . who in Expert Political Judgment contends that there is no direct correlation between the intelligence and knowledge of the political expert and the quality of his or her forecasts. If you want to know whether this or that pundit is making a correct prediction, don't ask yourself what he or she is thinking--but how he or she is thinking.
(Leon Hadar Business Times )
(Louis Menand The New Yorker )
Before anyone turns an ear to the panels of pundits, they might do well to obtain a copy of Phillip Tetlock's new book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? The Berkeley psychiatrist has apparently made a 20-year study of predictions by the sorts who appear as experts on TV and get quoted in newspapers and found that they are no better than the rest of us at prognostication.
(Jim Coyle Toronto Star )
Tetlock uses science and policy to brilliantly explore what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and to examine why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.
(Choice )
[This] book . . . Marshals powerful evidence to make [its] case. Expert Political Judgment . . . Summarizes the results of a truly amazing research project. . . . The question that screams out from the data is why the world keeps believing that "experts" exist at all.
(Geoffrey Colvin Fortune )
Philip Tetlock has just produced a study which suggests we should view expertise in political forecasting--by academics or intelligence analysts, independent pundits, journalists or institutional specialists--with the same skepticism that the well-informed now apply to stockmarket forecasting. . . . It is the scientific spirit with which he tackled his project that is the most notable thing about his book, but the findings of his inquiry are important and, for both reasons, everyone seriously concerned with forecasting, political risk, strategic analysis and public policy debate would do well to read the book.
(Paul Monk Australian Financial Review )
Phillip E. Tetlock does a remarkable job . . . applying the high-end statistical and methodological tools of social science to the alchemistic world of the political prognosticator. The result is a fascinating blend of science and storytelling, in the the best sense of both words.
(William D. Crano PsysCRITIQUES )
Mr. Tetlock's analysis is about political judgment but equally relevant to economic and commercial assessments.
(John Kay Financial Times )
Why do most political experts prove to be wrong most of time? For an answer, you might want to browse through a very fascinating study by Philip Tetlock . . . who in Expert Political Judgment contends that there is no direct correlation between the intelligence and knowledge of the political expert and the quality of his or her forecasts. If you want to know whether this or that pundit is making a correct prediction, don't ask yourself what he or she is thinking--but how he or she is thinking.
(Leon Hadar Business Times )
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Front Cover | Front Flap | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Back Flap | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
Inside This Book
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Key Phrases - Statistically Improbable Phrases (SIPs):
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reputational bets, belief updaters, unpacking condition, psychological skeptics, belief system defenses, counterfactual probes, controversy adjustments, subjective probability forecasts, dissonant evidence, fox advantage, secessionist referendum, scoring adjustments, correspondence indicators, hedgehog style, calibration scores, human forecasters, forces shaping events, likelihood judgments, hindsight effect, clairvoyance test, good political judgment, kth category, extrapolation algorithms, political prognostication, explanatory closure Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
New York, Soviet Union, South Africa, United States, Technical Appendix, North Korea, Current History, Oxford University Press, Communist Party, Psychological Review, Political Psychology, Cambridge University Press, European Monetary Union, Methodological Appendix, Isaiah Berlin, Princeton University Press, Harvard University Press, Saudi Arabia, Deng Xiaoping, Psychological Bulletin, Westview Press, World Bank, Middle East, Parti Québecois, Social Cognition New!
Books on Related Topics | Concordance | Text Stats Browse Sample Pages:
Front Cover | Front Flap | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Back Flap | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
reputational bets, belief updaters, unpacking condition, psychological skeptics, belief system defenses, counterfactual probes, controversy adjustments, subjective probability forecasts, dissonant evidence, fox advantage, secessionist referendum, scoring adjustments, correspondence indicators, hedgehog style, calibration scores, human forecasters, forces shaping events, likelihood judgments, hindsight effect, clairvoyance test, good political judgment, kth category, extrapolation algorithms, political prognostication, explanatory closure Key Phrases - Capitalized Phrases (CAPs): (learn more)
New York, Soviet Union, South Africa, United States, Technical Appendix, North Korea, Current History, Oxford University Press, Communist Party, Psychological Review, Political Psychology, Cambridge University Press, European Monetary Union, Methodological Appendix, Isaiah Berlin, Princeton University Press, Harvard University Press, Saudi Arabia, Deng Xiaoping, Psychological Bulletin, Westview Press, World Bank, Middle East, Parti Québecois, Social Cognition New!
Books on Related Topics | Concordance | Text Stats Browse Sample Pages:
Front Cover | Front Flap | Table of Contents | First Pages | Index | Back Flap | Back Cover | Surprise Me!
Citations (learn more)
This book cites 100
books:
See all 100 books this book cites
- Social Psychology (with InfoTrac) by H. Andrew Michener on 4 pages
- The Hedgehog and the Fox: An Essay on Tolstoy's View of History by Isaiah Berlin on 4 pages
- The Structure of Scientific Theories by Frederick Suppe on 4 pages
- Social Psychology by Elliot Aronson on page 39, page 162, and page 183
- Social Psychology by Susan T. Fiske on page 37, page 38, and page 234
See all 100 books this book cites
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