Customer Review

86 of 92 people found the following review helpful
4.0 out of 5 stars Good to read but be aware, September 21, 2005
This review is from: Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression (Paperback)
If you are an experienced reader of financial publications and would like to read a view that is very different but presented with arguments and reasoning - this is a good book to read. A different view will likely shine a new light to known facts and pull some new ones that you have not considered recently. Even if you don't agree with the author, such reading has high value if facts are presented well. These are. You should keep in mind though, that author stresses that he foresaw long bull market before many, knew its characteristics, etc. But his own advisory service (tracked by Hulbert Financial Magazine) has very poor results. He is way behind broad market on a "regular investors" portfolio and dramatically negative in his "trader" portfolio. His performance looks very consistent bad during a good 20 years period. So, in fact, you would look like a true hero if you took all his "trader" advises and did just opposite! Note, that it is not just stock picking that is bad. Timing-only returns are even worse. So, remember, your brain cannot retire yet. Given that - it is a good reading, good perspective to consider.

If you are just starting to read financial publications - you might not appreciate the fact that there are thousands of financial publishers at any given time. All, yes, all of them are smart. Really smart. Finance has so many dimensions that it is possible to argue any number of views at the same time - all well grounded and reasoned. When you are starting, anything you read impresses you, looks totally convincing and even evident. Moreover, you will have a feeling that you can make a confident use of newly acquired knowledge. This is why it is NOT good first reading for you. Before you have your brain active - you need some measured background reading. It is simply NOT POSSIBLE to judge from common sense - it takes decades to build common sense in finance. This is a radical view, expressed by rather radical author, practicing non-scientific ideas. His ideas cannot be proven or disproven because he talks about things that happens ones in a century or once in 3 centuries! So, keep in mind a simple fact - this particular man was right big time once but he himself was not able to make any use of his seeing into future. His theory was with him all along but help none either. In fact, you were better off not hearing his advices! I'd keep doing just that. This does not mean I dislike (or like) his prognosis. He may be right and he maybe wrong. He might be right in direction but wrong in the extent. Or any combinations. There is nothing in his book or in his performance so far to make it anything but a pure guess.
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Showing 1-1 of 1 posts in this discussion
Initial post: Apr 28, 2007 10:54:25 PM PDT
Last edited by the author on Apr 28, 2007 10:57:14 PM PDT
You performed an outstanding service by checking Prechter's track record on Hurlburt. Thanks for your informative and fair review.
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