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Customer Review

15 of 21 people found the following review helpful
5.0 out of 5 stars Another baseball season, another Prospectus. . ., January 25, 2014
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This review is from: Baseball Prospectus 2014 (Paperback)
I really enjoy this volume's arrival each year. It is filled with sabermetric analysis. Statistics beyond ERA, batting average, slugging percentage, etc. add a deeper dimension to sensing how well a player did. Also enjoyable is PECOTA, a system to project a player's performance in the upcoming season--in this case 2014.

Normally, I immediately go to see how my favored team, the Chicago White Sox, is represented here. Last year was not a good year, as the statistics show (1st in unearned runs allowed, # 1 is fewest runs scored) and their talent cupboard (major and minor league) and their finances and management rate 29th in baseball. Not auspicious for the coming season.

The player by player analyses are always interesting, and I especially like the projections. For instance, Adam Dunn. A hitter with a lot of power (let's forget a dreadful 2011) and a low average (the last three years: .159, .204, .219). 2014? A .214 batting average and 28 home runs. Not sure the home runs counter the miserable projected batting average. There is a 0% chance he will improve his performance dramatically, a 22% chance of improvement, only a 7% chance of a collapse (major decline), and a 17% chance of attrition (having performance decline--but not dramatically). Paul Konerko has had a career that is worthy of appreciation. However, he has been slowing down. Last year--a .244 batting average, just 12 home runes, and just 54 RBIs. A career in decline. This will be his final year. Projections? 19 homers, 68 RBIs, and a .269 batting average--a mild comeback from last year. We shall see what actually happens.

Pitching? The projection is for Chris Sale, a terrific pitcher by a variety of statistics, to have some problems winning. He is projected at 11-7 (last year, he had as fine year by most metrics, but was only 11-14 in wins and losses, due to a lack of support). He is projected to have a 2.70 ERA.

And on it goes, team after team.

Each year, this book brings me smiles as I look at team after team and wonder how the projections actually play out.
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Initial post: Jan 29, 2014 2:35:14 PM PST
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Location: Hershey, PA (Born in Kewanee, IL)

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